I thought I would share some information I found with you all. I looked up the racing and stud careers of the top yearling auction purchases in history.
Only two of the top 21 horses were stakes winners of modest means (Seattle Dancer $13.1 million and earner of $152,413 and Van Nistelrooy $6.4 million earning of $232,250). Seattle Dancer was a decent sire in Germany of 50 stakes winners. Van Nistelrooy is too young to tell, but he is standing in NZ.
None of the other horses produced anything of value on the track or in the breeding barn. Several horses around the $1 million have been good, but if the price starts rising above $2 million run for cover, even if you are loaded. The only high priced horse that has amounted to anything close to being worthy of their price did not fall on the bloodhorse list but still was $4 million purchase: Fusaichi Pegasus.
Where will Fusaichi Samari and the unnamed Storm Cat colt sold last year for $8 million fall out? My bet is that they'll be just as worthless as these other high priced nothings.
highest priced yearlings
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
The best two percent of stallions produce an average of 10% stakes winners in North America. It is not logarithmic as are the stud fees of the most expensive ones sold, nor do the most expensive ones necessarily end up in the best 2% group. The hopes are justifiably much higher for the higher priced ones noted in the press. So the vast majority of even the most expensive ones still don't have great racing or produce records. The horse doesn't know how much he's worth to his connections, and even if he did, he couldn't do much about it. Laying a guilt trip on him probably wouldn't work. 
Rocking H
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louis finochio
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The high rollers in the TB industry have high hopes and spend these enormus sums of $ in hopes of purchasing a GR SW or Champion TB.
If I was the breeder of one of those sales toppers, I wouldnt sleep for weeks, as every breeder dreams of their TB as a sale topper.
When you breed for the market with quality top and bottom, your chances for a sale topper would be elevated.
Without the high rollers that purchase these quality TB the sales averages would decline. The high rollers are the breeders delight.
If I was the breeder of one of those sales toppers, I wouldnt sleep for weeks, as every breeder dreams of their TB as a sale topper.
When you breed for the market with quality top and bottom, your chances for a sale topper would be elevated.
Without the high rollers that purchase these quality TB the sales averages would decline. The high rollers are the breeders delight.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Thank you FOS, you always seem to be able to ground these fanciful thoughts. For all of the expensive ones that were duds, there must have been expensive ones that were successes or buyers would not continue to spend at that level. Most of those buyers did not amass all that money because they were dumb....
So Run for the Roses, as fast as you can.....
There's a great deal of ego involved in buying a sales topper. If you have enough disposable income--and most of the big buyers do--the gratification can be worth the price.
Besides, they don't have to win with every horse. As long as they hit it big every once in a while (think FuPeg and his 60M syndication) that pays the bill for a lot of other sizeable purchases.
Besides, they don't have to win with every horse. As long as they hit it big every once in a while (think FuPeg and his 60M syndication) that pays the bill for a lot of other sizeable purchases.
Hello all,
Yes Mr P was a sales topper. I believe the previous record was a Swaps colt if I am not mistaken. He was a dud. Here is a homework assignment for someone - look at all the sales toppers in yearling sales. I bet the large majority are duds with only the occasional phenom like Mr P or AP Indy.
Absolutely. They are, for the most part, shrewd businessmen who understand the idea of risk. With the chance of high payoffs comes the chance of high returns on original investments. Buying horses in one of the biggest business risks out there.
However, people are emotional creatures and not above the realities of ego and excitement of the occasion. When a good auctioneer is up in front doing his bit, the tension and adrenelin starts mounting. You will have a hard time convincing me that the emotion of the time does not play into high prices. The competition and rising expectations as the onlookers and reporters wait for the "big money" to make your exciting and much awaited move. As cold, shrewd, and calculating as these people are and have to be in the business world, I don't believe they are unaffected by the atmosphere. Not to say I am a shrewd businessman, but I can say that the emotion is real in these auctions. I have been caught up in it and paid more than I planned or would otherwise feel comfortable paying.
I wonder if some of these high bidders who always say that is what I expected to pay afterward think to themselves. Man, why did I pay that much?!
You put down a load of money and you are a celebrity of sorts. Everyone on the racing industry knows who you are and knows you are a high roller. They look for you when you are looking at horses because they think "Why is he looking at that horse? That horse must be the best. Why is he at this auction? Which are the incredible horses that he with his vast resources thinks worthy of consideration. I believe that ego plays a large role because I think they like the idea of being the object of debate (like right now their actions are keeping us busy wondering).
Another aspect to strengthen this point is that all these horses but two (bought in 1998 and 2004) were bought during two periods of time (1982-1985 and 2000-2001). What was so great about the horses during these 6 years that they deserved such exalted prices? The mid 1980's was a period of inflated horse prices (12 of the 21 yearlings). (I wonder if currently we are going through a period similar.) This period was a chance to take advantage of the frenzy and make it big off the high prices. However, all 12 of the highest prcies were representatives of getting hosed in the attempt.
Also there is the strategy of Sangster (basically what LSB wrote). He said that the high price is worth it compared to the potential fortune the horse is worth when retired. When the horse is found to be a dud, sell it off immediately and try to recoup costs. A perfect example of this is all the Storm Cat sons in breeding. The popular lines make duds attractive to lesser markets. Sangster said that many times much of the cost is recouped when the duds are sold in this fashion.
However, saying all that, of these top 21 yearlings (excluding 2 too young to tell), only about half were even used extensively in breeding. In others words, I think most of these were huge losses or rather I think all 21 were huge losses and at least half the deals were completely unredeemable in a financial sense.
FOS wrote: Mr. Prospector was the highest priced yearling in 1971. You might agree...he did okay.
Yes Mr P was a sales topper. I believe the previous record was a Swaps colt if I am not mistaken. He was a dud. Here is a homework assignment for someone - look at all the sales toppers in yearling sales. I bet the large majority are duds with only the occasional phenom like Mr P or AP Indy.
madelyn wrote: For all of the expensive ones that were duds, there must have been expensive ones that were successes or buyers would not continue to spend at that level. Most of those buyers did not amass all that money because they were dumb....
Absolutely. They are, for the most part, shrewd businessmen who understand the idea of risk. With the chance of high payoffs comes the chance of high returns on original investments. Buying horses in one of the biggest business risks out there.
here's a great deal of ego involved in buying a sales topper. If you have enough disposable income--and most of the big buyers do--the gratification can be worth the price.
Besides, they don't have to win with every horse. As long as they hit it big every once in a while (think FuPeg and his 60M syndication) that pays the bill for a lot of other sizeable purchases.
However, people are emotional creatures and not above the realities of ego and excitement of the occasion. When a good auctioneer is up in front doing his bit, the tension and adrenelin starts mounting. You will have a hard time convincing me that the emotion of the time does not play into high prices. The competition and rising expectations as the onlookers and reporters wait for the "big money" to make your exciting and much awaited move. As cold, shrewd, and calculating as these people are and have to be in the business world, I don't believe they are unaffected by the atmosphere. Not to say I am a shrewd businessman, but I can say that the emotion is real in these auctions. I have been caught up in it and paid more than I planned or would otherwise feel comfortable paying.
I wonder if some of these high bidders who always say that is what I expected to pay afterward think to themselves. Man, why did I pay that much?!
You put down a load of money and you are a celebrity of sorts. Everyone on the racing industry knows who you are and knows you are a high roller. They look for you when you are looking at horses because they think "Why is he looking at that horse? That horse must be the best. Why is he at this auction? Which are the incredible horses that he with his vast resources thinks worthy of consideration. I believe that ego plays a large role because I think they like the idea of being the object of debate (like right now their actions are keeping us busy wondering).
Another aspect to strengthen this point is that all these horses but two (bought in 1998 and 2004) were bought during two periods of time (1982-1985 and 2000-2001). What was so great about the horses during these 6 years that they deserved such exalted prices? The mid 1980's was a period of inflated horse prices (12 of the 21 yearlings). (I wonder if currently we are going through a period similar.) This period was a chance to take advantage of the frenzy and make it big off the high prices. However, all 12 of the highest prcies were representatives of getting hosed in the attempt.
Also there is the strategy of Sangster (basically what LSB wrote). He said that the high price is worth it compared to the potential fortune the horse is worth when retired. When the horse is found to be a dud, sell it off immediately and try to recoup costs. A perfect example of this is all the Storm Cat sons in breeding. The popular lines make duds attractive to lesser markets. Sangster said that many times much of the cost is recouped when the duds are sold in this fashion.
However, saying all that, of these top 21 yearlings (excluding 2 too young to tell), only about half were even used extensively in breeding. In others words, I think most of these were huge losses or rather I think all 21 were huge losses and at least half the deals were completely unredeemable in a financial sense.
I forgot one more aspect. Part of the price of this yearling is advertisement. By paying a high price, you have the whole racing world looking at your horse. Imagine if the $8,000,000 Storm Cat bought by Fusao Sekiguchi does well. There'll be clamour from the time he wins his first allowance race. He'll already be touted as the next star. What if he does well? What if he is champion 2 year old, goes on to win the KY Derby and the BC Classic as a three year old? What if he is a bonafide star? How much will he be syndicated for? I bet Fusao Sekiguchi will make more off him then FuPeg. Now let's say another son of Storm Cat sells for $800K and the same racing scenario occurs. Do you think that the syndication price will be the same? I don't think so. The sale topping yearling price starts an incredible clamor and interest that causes immense popularity for his services and syndication.
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louis finochio
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To Khaled: What individual or individuals have been the most successful in purchasing quality TB that have won their self out many times over.
What breeder or breeders have been the most successful in selling their quality TB over the years?
As many are called, but few are chosen.
What breeder or breeders have been the most successful in selling their quality TB over the years?
As many are called, but few are chosen.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
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louis finochio
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louis finochio wrote:How many high priced fillies have failed on the racetrack and went on to be a diamond in the rough in the breeding shed, or gold mine producers?
Good question. I haven't looked done any research on that. Please let me know if you do a search of the top priced fillies as yearlings to see how they faired on the track and in the shed.
The top priced filly Moons Whisper (b. 2000) was a $4,400,000 purchase and appears not to have raced yet. We'll have to keep our fingers crossed that she does well in the breeding shed.
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Heather T.
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