GSV versus the number of wins

[George William Smith]

With the help of AP from the UAE, I have been looking at the GSV scores of all horses racing at Stampede Park in Alberta, Canada and doing statistical analysis on those entered in races. From 200 different horses so far that I have looked at in this small regional track [used to be great racing in Alberta, but that's another story], the average GSV score is 59.96.

Horse that have not yet won a race have an average GSV of 59.91 [we have a lot of maiden races at this time of year].
Horses that have won only one race have an average GSV of 59.27 with average earnings of $3589.26
Horses that have won only two races have an average GSV of 61.26 with average earnings of $19612.45
Horses that have won only three races have an average GSV of 61.45 with average earnings of $37,442.71
Horses that have won only four races have an average GSV of 61.56 with average earnings of $54,862.27
Horses that have won only five races have an average GSV of 60.51 with average earnings of $45,541.69 [partially explains lower GSV average, low claiming?]

Lots more to do, but results are encouraging so far as an accurate assessor of Genetic Strength.

It should be noted here that there are plenty of exceptions where a horse with a low GSV [say 56 or 52, etc.] beats the pants off a horse with a GSV of 68 or higher so the reader must note we are only talking average scores and the GSV is no magic bullet.

No guarantee given, but if you notice a horse with a high GSV that has a nice running stride or works, then it is quite possible that the horse did inherit its fair share of Genetic Strength and worth a bet in appropriate company.


Best, George

[Tom]

George

I was wondering if horses with higher GSV tend to be more distance horses ...maybe thats why horses with lower GSV beat them in shorter races? Am I off base?

[George William Smith]

Yes, the GSV tends to rise in distance races because the program is biased towards horses that can run all distances FAST, so a horse gets more Racing Ability points if it could sprint fast, middle distance fast and do long routes fast than if the shorter distances are the only ones it is fast in.

Interestingly, the study was of four furlong races only at the start of our race meet, so the GSV is biased in favor of winners, because winners get more Racing Ability points.

[louis finochio]

Class as indicated in your GVS ratings and condition of the TB are the two principles in handicaping. The two go hand in hand, as the TB that have those ingredients will be victorious.