I don't know if this study exists, but I would like to pose the following questions to the board. There is reseach that shows that "good milers" make the best stallions. I was wondering, has anyone conducted a study regarding racing fillys that have become Broodmares? A filly that has shown good speed over a short distance of ground vs. a filly that has been shown to run 2 turns. What makes a better Broodmare statistically?
I looked at some winners of sprint style stakes races (The Test, Prioress Stakes, any of these sound familiar as successful Broodies: http://nyra.com/chart/stakes2a2006.asp? ... 65&track=B ), and the winners of the major distance races (Mother Goose) for fillys. First Glance, the distance fillys look to be better producers, like: Serena's Song, Davona Dale, as far back as Quill.
Thanks....
Drew
A question on Broodmare data:
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Re: A question on Broodmare data:
dray33 wrote:I don't know if this study exists, but I would like to pose the following questions to the board. There is reseach that shows that "good milers" make the best stallions.
I've never heard there was an actual study attached to it ... it was just one of those Old Horseman axioms that has been around forever.
-
louis finochio
- Darley line
- Posts: 9181
- Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:21 am
- Location: Alhambra-Calif.
- Contact:
The best BM come from those Blue Hen families or close to it, as its always family over individual.
If those superior BM dont have those prolific producing female families behind them, their chances of becoming one themselves is very remote.
The same family over individual applys to those superior producing BMS, If those BMS dont have those dominant producing female families they will strike out as leading BMS.
To cover all bases on speed and stamina, one would look for a middle distance performer, that would be 8 furlongs or one mile.
It is better to have a balance of speed and stamina, then all stamina.
If those superior BM dont have those prolific producing female families behind them, their chances of becoming one themselves is very remote.
The same family over individual applys to those superior producing BMS, If those BMS dont have those dominant producing female families they will strike out as leading BMS.
To cover all bases on speed and stamina, one would look for a middle distance performer, that would be 8 furlongs or one mile.
It is better to have a balance of speed and stamina, then all stamina.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Well, but what makes a “Blue Hen family”? As You refer to “family”, it must have been something to do with genetics.
If x-factor-theory is valid, superior racing performance will have something to do with superior physical traits, for example a large heart, which genes should be transmitted by the female x-gene.
And when do superior physical traits really matter? Off course in stamina contests, where aerobe physical circulation is important.
So in my opinion a stamina-tested mare should be a better broodmare prospect. My proof: look f. e. at Kincsem, Sceptre, Pretty Polly, Schwarzgold, Nereide, Dahlia, Urban Sea – they were all great racing mares with excellent records at 12f (and sometimes even more!), and later on founded important families. Look at the record of fillies in the Doncaster St. Leger and her later breeding performances.
Dr. Roman gives another hint with his elaboration on “Dosage System”: he shows in a table, comparing average dosage points for a sample of “elite horses” that BMS-champions in the US have on an average more dosage points in any aptitude class with a remarkable tendency to the “stout” and “professional” aptitudes, which is not seen in any other mentioned class of “elite horses”.
Unfortunately, up to now there is no research published, which side of the pedigree delivers more dosage points of which aptitudinal class. It’s my thesis that the female side in general delivers significantly more dosage points of the “classic”, “stout/solid” and “professional” aptitude than the male side, which delivers more “brilliant” and “intermediate” points.
If x-factor-theory is valid, superior racing performance will have something to do with superior physical traits, for example a large heart, which genes should be transmitted by the female x-gene.
And when do superior physical traits really matter? Off course in stamina contests, where aerobe physical circulation is important.
So in my opinion a stamina-tested mare should be a better broodmare prospect. My proof: look f. e. at Kincsem, Sceptre, Pretty Polly, Schwarzgold, Nereide, Dahlia, Urban Sea – they were all great racing mares with excellent records at 12f (and sometimes even more!), and later on founded important families. Look at the record of fillies in the Doncaster St. Leger and her later breeding performances.
Dr. Roman gives another hint with his elaboration on “Dosage System”: he shows in a table, comparing average dosage points for a sample of “elite horses” that BMS-champions in the US have on an average more dosage points in any aptitude class with a remarkable tendency to the “stout” and “professional” aptitudes, which is not seen in any other mentioned class of “elite horses”.
Unfortunately, up to now there is no research published, which side of the pedigree delivers more dosage points of which aptitudinal class. It’s my thesis that the female side in general delivers significantly more dosage points of the “classic”, “stout/solid” and “professional” aptitude than the male side, which delivers more “brilliant” and “intermediate” points.
-
louis finochio
- Darley line
- Posts: 9181
- Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 5:21 am
- Location: Alhambra-Calif.
- Contact:
To Parlo: In Euro racing you will find more stamina oriented mares than in the US. As the TB breeders in the US will shy away from those stamina mares, as speed is the name of the game on this side of the pond.
Those mares that you posted were golden individuals, racing and breeding. When in Rome you must do as the Romans do, as many are called but few are chosen.
Those mares that you posted were golden individuals, racing and breeding. When in Rome you must do as the Romans do, as many are called but few are chosen.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Hi all,
The only research that I know of regarding the siring ability of milers was published not too long ago in MARKETWATCH , (I believe) and they provided some statistical evidence that Belmont winners were, on the whole, better sires that Metropolitan Mile winners. You're right that it's a commonly held idea that milers make the best sires, but it probably has no basis in researched facts.
In the early part of the 20th century the common wisdom was that mares brought speed to the pedigree and the sire stamina and gradually this reversed throughout the century.
The real change probably can be traced to the development of Bend Or line stallions Phalaris and Teddy (both foaled in 1913). Teddy's sire line rose to dominance in the 1920's and was more stamina oriented than Phalaris who was known for getting speed. Phalaris got the important sires Pharos (Nearco / Northern Dancer line), Pharamond, Sickle (Native Dancer / Mr. Prospector line), Fairway and Colorado, all out of mares by the stamina sire Chaucer.
By the 1960's, Phalaris line stallions were becoming dominant and this corresponds with, and would seem to support that the mares were carrying more of the stamina load in pedigrees.
Perhaps the most important change has been the shortening of races over the last 30 years that has changed the quotient of stamina needed in a mating. Quality milers must have speed and some stamina and if the modern profile is accurate (in general) then the mare can provide the rest of the picture for horses capable of going 9f or even a little further.
Drew, you make an interesting point about specific stakes races being the testing ground of better broodmares and there is some corollary in sires too. Some races seem to do better at producing sires than their importance would tend to imply. This is perhaps related to the time and conditions of the race where the quality and depth of competition may be better.
Regards,
Pete
The only research that I know of regarding the siring ability of milers was published not too long ago in MARKETWATCH , (I believe) and they provided some statistical evidence that Belmont winners were, on the whole, better sires that Metropolitan Mile winners. You're right that it's a commonly held idea that milers make the best sires, but it probably has no basis in researched facts.
In the early part of the 20th century the common wisdom was that mares brought speed to the pedigree and the sire stamina and gradually this reversed throughout the century.
The real change probably can be traced to the development of Bend Or line stallions Phalaris and Teddy (both foaled in 1913). Teddy's sire line rose to dominance in the 1920's and was more stamina oriented than Phalaris who was known for getting speed. Phalaris got the important sires Pharos (Nearco / Northern Dancer line), Pharamond, Sickle (Native Dancer / Mr. Prospector line), Fairway and Colorado, all out of mares by the stamina sire Chaucer.
By the 1960's, Phalaris line stallions were becoming dominant and this corresponds with, and would seem to support that the mares were carrying more of the stamina load in pedigrees.
Perhaps the most important change has been the shortening of races over the last 30 years that has changed the quotient of stamina needed in a mating. Quality milers must have speed and some stamina and if the modern profile is accurate (in general) then the mare can provide the rest of the picture for horses capable of going 9f or even a little further.
Drew, you make an interesting point about specific stakes races being the testing ground of better broodmares and there is some corollary in sires too. Some races seem to do better at producing sires than their importance would tend to imply. This is perhaps related to the time and conditions of the race where the quality and depth of competition may be better.
Regards,
Pete
Has a palomino jean that pop up some.
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
This stallion is DNA ... all foal can be MBNA inrolled.
Horses like their credit cards. - Four Forty Farms
@Pete: Thank You for assistance!
@Louis Finochio: Remember: the x-factor-theory and Dr. Roman’s version of the Dosage system are “American” inventions and based on observations on the American sprint-oriented racing-system.
The US-focus is an important reason why Roman’s Dosage System is not much considered and perhaps underestimated at least in Continental Europe. But as I’ve tried to show: there are reasonable signs that it works – in Europe and in the US in spite of different racing-systems!
@Louis Finochio: Remember: the x-factor-theory and Dr. Roman’s version of the Dosage system are “American” inventions and based on observations on the American sprint-oriented racing-system.
The US-focus is an important reason why Roman’s Dosage System is not much considered and perhaps underestimated at least in Continental Europe. But as I’ve tried to show: there are reasonable signs that it works – in Europe and in the US in spite of different racing-systems!
Last edited by parlo on Fri Mar 17, 2006 5:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
Pete wrote:You're right that it's a commonly held idea that milers make the best sires, but it probably has no basis in researched facts.
Now that you mention it... It would probably be a gargantuan undertaking, but I would be interested in seeing a compliation of "Average Beyer of all Racing Progeny" for sires and mares. Is there such a study?
Pete wrote:In the early part of the 20th century the common wisdom was that mares brought speed to the pedigree and the sire stamina and gradually this reversed throughout the century.
I think in part because the data for mares is easier to compile (limited progeny) as opposed to sires. It quickly shows "speed" of progeny, or it can be based simply by success.
Drew, you make an interesting point about specific stakes races being the testing ground of better broodmares and there is some corollary in sires too. Some races seem to do better at producing sires than their importance would tend to imply. This is perhaps related to the time and conditions of the race where the quality and depth of competition may be better.
Fact is Pete (especially in the US) the longer races are going to show more class. I think because we breed for speed, the ones that can haul it around two-turns are special. I was just wondering if there was data to support it, it looks from a cursory glance that the distance mares are good producers.
Thanks for the thoughts. You ARE good at this stuff!
-
bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
Dray33---it looks like you are getting two different responses to your question. Even though you started out in your original post discussing stallions I think your question comes at the end of that post and is in regards to broodmares---is that correct?
Go to the American Thoroughbred review and find the article titled "Stamina and the Maternal Influence" I believe this addresses the question you ask. (Market watch also did a piece on the same subject and reached a different conclusion. I agree more with the market watch conclusion than the american thoroughbred review) I am not sure what studies they commissioned to reach their conclusions but (I think) they did reference some studies in their articles.
The short answer is: current thinking believes that the broodmare can influence stamina more than speed in their respective foals and therefore mares bred to go long (it seems even on the turf) are preferred partners for 7 furlong to 1 mile speed stallions.
As I have posted several times under different threads, if you look at the winners of the past three kentucky derby's as an example, each winner was sired by a 7f-1Mile speedy stallion out of mares with stamina oriented pedigrees. Some people might say that Smarty Jones broodmare (I'll get along) was more speed oriented ( and I would agree that she ran better at 6f and was sired by Smile another speedy stallion but if you go deeper into her female family it gets more distance oriented the further you go back, so her heritage was stamina even though her optimum performance level was sprinting. Funny Cide; Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex all fit the model to a tee.
On the topic of stallions, I have read that the current belief is that a 7f-1mile speedy stallion can pass enough speed to be competitive earlier (sprinters tend to mature earlier) and shorter than a staying stallion but also has enough stamina to produce legitimate 2 turn progeny capable of getting even the mile and a half distance. No one breeds for distances beyond that anymore and even those mile and a half races are few and far between.
I really like your comment about doing the hard analysis of the racing stock with something like the beyers data as the medium of choice. I am amazed the breeding industry hasn't developed this on their own. Can you imagine what we might see if some of the minds from wall street ever got together to develop an analytical tool to evaluate breeding stock, immediately relevent for stallions but very useful for broodmares as well. I really think the industry would be deathly afraid of this type of analysis. It would take all the hype and glamour out of the decision making process and expose a lot of very bad and expensive stallions---not good for a lot of farms. This type of analysis would take all of the subjectivity out of the analysis and give you the best empirical data possible. I really like the fact it uses all of his progeny to race and not just the results of a few, possibly atypical individuals to analyze from his crop. I do something very similar in my private system but I take the best race that individual ran in an entire calander year as the input for that offspring. (I don't use the average of every race that individual ran for the entire year, I use only one race for that individual and obviously it would be the best number earned. The reason I do this is very complicated to explain but it has worked extremely well for me this way. You may not remember this but I do this exact analysis on the foals of stallions I am tracking in my stallion evaluation system. I have been doing this now for about 10 years and it is getting better (more refined) every year.
Good questions and interesting observations as always. Cheers
Go to the American Thoroughbred review and find the article titled "Stamina and the Maternal Influence" I believe this addresses the question you ask. (Market watch also did a piece on the same subject and reached a different conclusion. I agree more with the market watch conclusion than the american thoroughbred review) I am not sure what studies they commissioned to reach their conclusions but (I think) they did reference some studies in their articles.
The short answer is: current thinking believes that the broodmare can influence stamina more than speed in their respective foals and therefore mares bred to go long (it seems even on the turf) are preferred partners for 7 furlong to 1 mile speed stallions.
As I have posted several times under different threads, if you look at the winners of the past three kentucky derby's as an example, each winner was sired by a 7f-1Mile speedy stallion out of mares with stamina oriented pedigrees. Some people might say that Smarty Jones broodmare (I'll get along) was more speed oriented ( and I would agree that she ran better at 6f and was sired by Smile another speedy stallion but if you go deeper into her female family it gets more distance oriented the further you go back, so her heritage was stamina even though her optimum performance level was sprinting. Funny Cide; Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex all fit the model to a tee.
On the topic of stallions, I have read that the current belief is that a 7f-1mile speedy stallion can pass enough speed to be competitive earlier (sprinters tend to mature earlier) and shorter than a staying stallion but also has enough stamina to produce legitimate 2 turn progeny capable of getting even the mile and a half distance. No one breeds for distances beyond that anymore and even those mile and a half races are few and far between.
I really like your comment about doing the hard analysis of the racing stock with something like the beyers data as the medium of choice. I am amazed the breeding industry hasn't developed this on their own. Can you imagine what we might see if some of the minds from wall street ever got together to develop an analytical tool to evaluate breeding stock, immediately relevent for stallions but very useful for broodmares as well. I really think the industry would be deathly afraid of this type of analysis. It would take all the hype and glamour out of the decision making process and expose a lot of very bad and expensive stallions---not good for a lot of farms. This type of analysis would take all of the subjectivity out of the analysis and give you the best empirical data possible. I really like the fact it uses all of his progeny to race and not just the results of a few, possibly atypical individuals to analyze from his crop. I do something very similar in my private system but I take the best race that individual ran in an entire calander year as the input for that offspring. (I don't use the average of every race that individual ran for the entire year, I use only one race for that individual and obviously it would be the best number earned. The reason I do this is very complicated to explain but it has worked extremely well for me this way. You may not remember this but I do this exact analysis on the foals of stallions I am tracking in my stallion evaluation system. I have been doing this now for about 10 years and it is getting better (more refined) every year.
Good questions and interesting observations as always. Cheers
best regards Brendan
bcassidy: Thank you for your detailed post. You are correct, I simply mentioned sires as milers because that seems to be the accepted theory, but I am most interested in the female side of the equation. I will look for both articles you have recommended.
I think there are many examples of a Miler sire and a "distance" mares. I wonder what happens when you mate a "sprinty" mare to a stallion?
As for compiling the data, I wouldn't have a clue how to even get access to the database, but if it exists, I could write a program to parse it.
I think there are many examples of a Miler sire and a "distance" mares. I wonder what happens when you mate a "sprinty" mare to a stallion?
As for compiling the data, I wouldn't have a clue how to even get access to the database, but if it exists, I could write a program to parse it.
Pete wrote:Hi all,
The only research that I know of regarding the siring ability of milers was published not too long ago in MARKETWATCH , (I believe) and they provided some statistical evidence that Belmont winners were, on the whole, better sires that Metropolitan Mile winners. You're right that it's a commonly held idea that milers make the best sires, but it probably has no basis in researched facts.
The few times I've heard a similar reference was in relation to sprinter vs milers/routers. I believe even Mandella made a comment (in "On The Muscle") that a horse that can win at over a mile makes a "better stallion prospect". So, perhaps it is more from a "preference" point of view than a "statistically proven" point of view.
dray33 wrote:Again, this is female side only I am talking about. I really don't care about the sire... they are simply a commodity. That's the cold, hard truth.
I agree the female family holds a lot of cards that many fail to play. But to say the stallion isn't that important is perhaps a little off the mark too.
-
bcassidy
- Restricted Stakes Winner
- Posts: 876
- Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Springfield twshp, NJ
dray33---I concur with you, the mare holds the keys to the kingdom.
Am. Thoro Review has two charts set up with their corresponding early conclusions. Their study hasn't gone long enough nor does it have enough of a sampling to be technically accurate but they are trying to get to the bottom of this argument with real world data. I applaud them for taking on this project. These studies are high value.
The Market watch did a similar study and came to a different conclusion so we will need more time to have both of these projects hit some more significant milestones before a hard, cold conclusion can be reached.
My own personal opinion is that stamina is passed on best by the female family and then you can add speed or more stamina through the stallion you select (stallions are commodities)
I personally like females that have size and distance oriented pedigrees. This gives you the most options.
Am. Thoro Review has two charts set up with their corresponding early conclusions. Their study hasn't gone long enough nor does it have enough of a sampling to be technically accurate but they are trying to get to the bottom of this argument with real world data. I applaud them for taking on this project. These studies are high value.
The Market watch did a similar study and came to a different conclusion so we will need more time to have both of these projects hit some more significant milestones before a hard, cold conclusion can be reached.
My own personal opinion is that stamina is passed on best by the female family and then you can add speed or more stamina through the stallion you select (stallions are commodities)
I personally like females that have size and distance oriented pedigrees. This gives you the most options.
best regards Brendan