1 1/16th Mile. Rebel-G2 REBEL S.. Grade II.

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1 1/16th Mile. Rebel-G2 REBEL S.. Grade II.

Postby Whirlaway » Thu Mar 17, 2011 5:57 pm

Past Performances are in . . .
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Postby bdw0617 » Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:59 pm

I think this is sway away's races to lose. My drinking buddy is a trainer's son at oaklawn, and he goes and sees all the workouts, tells me that sway away right now is lights out FWIW. with that said, the horse that really somewhat intrigues me, is the horse that beat elite alex in his allownace race. he came back and won an allownace nw2x by 5 lengths next out. I LOvE horses that work through their conditions, and this horse could be peaking at the right time
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Postby Whirlaway » Fri Mar 18, 2011 12:14 pm

bdw0617 wrote:I think this is sway away's races to lose. My drinking buddy is a trainer's son at oaklawn, and he goes and sees all the workouts, tells me that sway away right now is lights out FWIW. with that said, the horse that really somewhat intrigues me, is the horse that beat elite alex in his allownace race. he came back and won an allownace nw2x by 5 lengths next out. I LOvE horses that work through their conditions, and this horse could be peaking at the right time


Lookin' forward to Sway Away and the Rebel Stakes!

It's a full field with solid competition, a real hoss' race, no excuses. If he wins it, he stamps his ticket to the big dance. Considering his last, I think he has a good shot at winning this thing and we may well see a race similar to the San Felipe. Quite frankly, I hope he runs off with it!

How do you see this race shaping up? Gotta consider the difference in the racetrack surface. Will The Factor run off with it? How fast will he run the the half - how fast will he run the six? When or where do you see the others reeling him in? Where will Sway Away be in relationship to the early pace, say at six and seven furlongs? Give us your race shape and where you figure Sway Away will be at critical points in the race.
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Postby bdw0617 » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:18 pm

oaklawn is not santa anita, there will be no 43 second half miles. the factor will have the lead, i est. 22, 45, 1:09 splits something along those lines which is plenty fast at oaklawn. He'sa game horse, I think he will finish in the money but won't win it.

there isn't that much true speed in the race. the factor could give the field the slip if they think he is going to fold. JP's Gusto isn't fast enough to keep up with him.
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Postby Bast » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:30 pm

Dreaminofthewin and Glint scratched.
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Postby cewright » Fri Mar 18, 2011 1:40 pm

Some other thoughts...Santa Anita is 900 feet from the last turn to the finish line (per ARM) while Oaklawn is 1155. Oaklawn tends to be deeper and perhaps more tiring than Santa Anita. So with any kind of pace Oaklawn favors a closer much more than Santa Anita.

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Postby Bid » Sat Mar 19, 2011 5:46 am

JP's Gusto with Ramon is my pick

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Postby zinn21 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 6:52 am

Sway Away; bring it...
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Postby Whirlaway » Sat Mar 19, 2011 7:44 am

Should be a good one!

While handicapping this one I wondered why The Factor and Sway Away didn't train up to and run in the San Felipe. They chose instead to run against "softer" company in the Rebel. That fact in and of itself may indicate some doubt in their ability . . . In leaving the comfy confines of So Cal, they gave up home surface advantage, choosing instead a different venue, different surface at a longer distance, neither showing a work on the Oaklawn strip - talk about confidence! Both trainers must think their So Cal runners particular superior; they can just amble into Oaklawn and run off with this thing - damn the surface, distance and the competition, not to mention the super full moon.

I figure the new distance and new surface will be an equalizer with the advantage going to horses that have run over the strip.

JPs Gusto to win.
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Postby TJ » Sat Mar 19, 2011 4:31 pm

Another super race by The Factor....Baffert's is without a doubt one of the best when he leaves California to run. TJ

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Postby erhrdt3 » Sat Mar 19, 2011 5:29 pm

Wow, my derby horse won big today! The Factor just did not give up. Of course with the KY Derby it will be the longest shot on the board to win it.

Hey Jorge, how bout that grey Factor?! He sure is a nice horse.
We will NEVER see another Ruffian......

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Postby reenci » Sat Mar 19, 2011 7:19 pm

The Factor just might be learning a little about rating...down the backside he had his mouth open...{pulling}...but after that he fell into a nice stride...if he moves forward after this U.M. has a horse race on his hands...but its still early...but time is slipping for the rest of them. very disapointed in sway away....
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Postby TJ » Sun Mar 20, 2011 4:46 am

reenci wrote:The Factor just might be learning a little about rating...down the backside he had his mouth open...{pulling}...but after that he fell into a nice stride...if he moves forward after this U.M. has a horse race on his hands...but its still early...but time is slipping for the rest of them. very disapointed in sway away....


Hi reenci,
I followed Sway Away as best I could as he developed, simply because he is a sway back. He's always looked to have a knee, which is common with sway backs. What is also common with them is that they can all run! I did notice his rt. front yesteday.....walking a bit wider than I've seen him, hopefully he will rebound. TJ

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Postby erhrdt3 » Sun Mar 20, 2011 7:28 am

What causes the sway back?

I've seen the old antique style photos of horses with severe swayed backs, so bad that I can't believe they could walk much less run.

Is it from putting weight on them too young of age? :?:
We will NEVER see another Ruffian......

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Postby TJ » Sun Mar 20, 2011 9:25 am

erhrdt3 wrote:What causes the sway back?

I've seen the old antique style photos of horses with severe swayed backs, so bad that I can't believe they could walk much less run.

Is it from putting weight on them too young of age? :?:


Hi erhrdt,
This will answer some of your questions concerning sway backs. TJ
http://www.horseshoes.com/farrierssites ... rdosis.htm