Kentucky Derby Who can we rule out to win

wgc517 · Postby **wgc517** » Fri May 06, 2011 5:46 am

Ok so we all try to pick the winner but there are always a bunch that have a shot. So who are the ones that have no shot to win. Grant it ever horse in the race has some shot but if the race goes the way people expect it who could you rule out.

There is a 40% chance of rain in the afternoon and greater in the evening.

Terrapin Flyer · Postby **Terrapin Flyer** » Fri May 06, 2011 6:10 am

Twice The Appeal is probably the worst bet of all time @ 20-1, I guess if Zippy Chippy had Calvin up he would be the same price, by Battaglia logic. The rider cannot make a slow horse fast, any bet on him is wasted money. Others on my list off the top of my head are the 20 horse, Twinspired, Derby Kitten and Briiliant Speed all of whom are dicey @ best on the dirt. Any of the others wouldn't be a shock but those 5 will be nowhere close to finding their way on to my tickkets.

wangkw · Postby **wangkw** » Fri May 06, 2011 5:47 pm

Twice The Appeal I hope will be in the money.

Bast · Postby **Bast** » Fri May 06, 2011 6:04 pm

Watch Me Go was beaten 17 lengths in his last start, the not-so-fast Illinois Derby. I'm picking him for last.

RuffianT21 · Postby **RuffianT21** » Fri May 06, 2011 6:38 pm

Watch Me Go seems by far the easiest toss-- very little back form, mediocre at best pedigree, and terrible post position.

Also see Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Brilliant Speed, and Decisive Moment as subpar, even in this field.

Shammy Davis · Postby **Shammy Davis** » Fri May 06, 2011 6:53 pm

Rule out DIALED IN because he is the odds on favorite.

wgc517 · Postby **wgc517** » Fri May 06, 2011 7:00 pm

I am also ruling out Comma to the Top

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri May 06, 2011 7:05 pm

RuffianT21 wrote:Watch Me Go seems by far the easiest toss-- very little back form, mediocre at best pedigree, and terrible post position.

Also see Derby Kitten, Twinspired, Brilliant Speed, and Decisive Moment as subpar, even in this field.

descive moments running style will allow to him at least to not embarrass himself

RuffianT21 · Postby **RuffianT21** » Fri May 06, 2011 7:17 pm

Re: Decisive Moment-- This is true... He's consistent and can sit off the pace. Hate the layoff, though.

He's one that my brain wants to toss but my gut is telling me to have a little money on him to place or show, if his odds are long enough.

Related-- kentuckyderby.com has Comma To the Top at the longest odds currently-- 42-1. :?:

Sure, I don't think he'll hang on to win or even place, but longer than Watch Me Go? Really?

ireneinwa · Postby **ireneinwa** » Fri May 06, 2011 7:26 pm

All nineteen except Santiva

RuffianT21 · Postby **RuffianT21** » Fri May 06, 2011 9:52 pm

Terrapin Flyer wrote:Twice The Appeal is probably the worst bet of all time @ 20-1, I guess if Zippy Chippy had Calvin up he would be the same price, by Battaglia logic. The rider cannot make a slow horse fast, any bet on him is wasted money. Others on my list off the top of my head are the 20 horse, Twinspired, Derby Kitten and Briiliant Speed all of whom are dicey @ best on the dirt. Any of the others wouldn't be a shock but those 5 will be nowhere close to finding their way on to my tickkets.

kentuckyderby.com currently has Twice the Appeal as the second choice at 8-1. :shock:

Terrapin Flyer · Postby **Terrapin Flyer** » Fri May 06, 2011 10:46 pm

I wish I could book all that wasted money bet on him. At least Mike Watchmaker see it like I do and says he should be 100-1.

Since I'm alive in the Oaks Derby Double with Nehro and Midnight Interlude I would like to toss the rest of the field.

zinn21 · Postby **zinn21** » Sun May 08, 2011 4:42 pm

Congrats to all! Nobody embarrassed themselves by picking a loser who ran well..