Beyer figs are decreasing for 3 year olds

[stancaris]

In the last 4 Derbies each winner never had a triple digit Beyer fig before the Derby
I'll Have Another top figure 96
Animal Kingdom top figure 93
Super Saver top figure 98
Mine That Bird top figure 81

The last four Belmonts also were similar

Union Rags top figure 95
Ruler on Ice top figure 87
Drosselmeyer top fig 92
Summer Bird top fig 99

The years before the above from 2008 on back were mostly winners that achieved triple digit Beyer figs in 9 furlong preps etc. in both the pre Derby and pre Belmont Stakes.

I the past Triple Digit Beyer figs were very common in the past performances of Derby and Belmont winners leading up to but not including the Derby and Belmont. The data above certainly seems to be the start of a new trend (at least where the Derby and Belmont are concerned).

Further support for this trend is found in the second and third place finishers in the Derby.

Derby 2nd placers

Bodemeister 108
Nehro 98
Ice Box 99
Pioneerof the nile 95

Belmont 2nd place finishers
Paynter never raced 9 furlongs before the Belmont (106 at 8.5f)
Stay Thirsty 89
Fly down 99
Dunkirk 108
Denis of Cork 97

Conclusion: the breed is no longer capable of achieving big Beyer figs in route races at 9 furlongs or longer in the races leading up to the Triple Crown or one might say they are doing so at a much lesser frequency than those horses that ran in the time frame 1990-2007

[ElPrado]

Conclusion:
Maybe breeders should try not selling route stallions overseas faster than they run the first half mile of a race.

[jjmcgo]

The basic program is Stockwell over Touchstone, reversed the next generation, then S over T again, then Matchem, then King Fergus, T over S, S over T, then Herod, then John O'Gaunt, T over S, etc.
Eclipse for speed. Matchem for mastery. Herod for bone.

[Jorge]

With so many injured sophomores before the Triple Crown races,
and then so many supposedly good ones departing from racetracks because of career ending injuries we may have to conclude that we are dealing with the next bunch of substitutes of that generation. Namely the "Plan B" of the "creme de la creme".

[Downthelane]

In the last 4 Derbies each winner never had a triple digit Beyer fig before the Derby
I'll Have Another top figure 96
Animal Kingdom top figure 93
Super Saver top figure 98
Mine That Bird top figure 81

The last four Belmonts also were similar

Union Rags top figure 95
Ruler on Ice top figure 87
Drosselmeyer top fig 92
Summer Bird top fig 99

The years before the above from 2008 on back were mostly winners that achieved triple digit Beyer figs in 9 furlong preps etc. in both the pre Derby and pre Belmont Stakes.

I the past Triple Digit Beyer figs were very common in the past performances of Derby and Belmont winners leading up to but not including the Derby and Belmont. The data above certainly seems to be the start of a new trend (at least where the Derby and Belmont are concerned).

Further support for this trend is found in the second and third place finishers in the Derby.

Derby 2nd placers

Bodemeister 108
Nehro 98
Ice Box 99
Pioneerof the nile 95

Belmont 2nd place finishers
Paynter never raced 9 furlongs before the Belmont (106 at 8.5f)
Stay Thirsty 89
Fly down 99
Dunkirk 108
Denis of Cork 97

Conclusion: the breed is no longer capable of achieving big Beyer figs in route races at 9 furlongs or longer in the races leading up to the Triple Crown or one might say they are doing so at a much lesser frequency than those horses that ran in the time frame 1990-2007

Interesting post, I've noticed that myself, the numbers are reducing. I am wondering though if the numbers were too high to begin with in recent years? After all they are figures and not scientifically accurate. What are your further thoughts?

[stancaris]

I think its a decline in the breed because I also noticed similar occurances in the BC Classic the last few years. It just may be that the modern thoroughbred is no longer capable of putting up those big Beyer figs in major route races on dirt. Perhaps its the amount of speed in the pedigrees of the best horses but then again thats just a guess.

[Jorge]

I also wonder if this topic can be applied to the horses running the three races that constitutes the Canadian Triple Crown, regardless of their surfaces. It is well known that many Canadian sophomores end up competing against US horses on dirt. Can we expand the list to see if the same is happening north the border?