TJ: You said, "any and all early speed horses that show up in this years Derby will be able to carry their speed a distance of ground."
That is not necessarily the case. There may be several early speed horses that run in this year's Derby that win their preps on the front end or tired to come in second in a major prep that allows them to get 50 points and despite getting into the Derby starting gate they really do not want any part of 10 furlongs.
Also, a horse like Bodemeister who goes wire to wire in the Ark Derby really did not want 10 furlongs and was probably best only up to 9 furlongs. If a horse goes wire to wire to win a 9 furlong prep and gets 100 points that does not necessarily make him a valid contender in the Derby. Frontrunning types seldom win the roses (only 3 in the last 25 years or 12%).
The new point system may give more of a chance to a frontrunner than the old system but in my opinion they are still not the type of runner you want to wager on in general at 10 furlongs in the Ky Derby. Horses that have tactical speed almost always do better in the win spot of the Derby. Horses like Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Street Sense, Super Saver, Barbaro etc. are examples of runners that can lay slightly off the pace and still win the roses.. Need the lead types seldom succeed in the run for the roses. War Emblem, Winning Colors, Go for Gin are the exception to the rule.
Violence who???
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Sir Barton
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Re: interesting prediction
stancaris wrote:Sir Barton: That's an interesting prediction and over the last 10 years some pace setters in the Derby were nothing more than early speed types that could grab the lead and then fade out of the money. Certainly with their absence the pace scenario may become different.
However, last year it was Bodemeister who went the first six furlongs in 1:09 4/5 and he certainly wasn't cheap speed or a just a sprinter. He won the Ark Derby big time at 9 furlongs wire to wire and finished second in the Derby and Preakness both major route races. So it is still possible that front-running types will be present in this years Derby that are not just sprinters and the pace can still be hot. We have to wait and see what kind of speed horses enter the run for the roses. If it looks like just one lone speedster that has proven a winner at 9 furlongs in a major stake race we may just get a Derby winner going wire to wire. However, if several wire to wire types are entered we are back to square one where the Derby will favor off the pace types.
Bodemeister was the speed of the speed in last years derby and deserved to be there based on his Ark Derby win. The horse who will not be there this year is Breeders Cup Sprint Champ Trinniberg who forced the 1:09 and change three quarters. His wins in the Bay Shore and Swale would this year earn him 0 points for the Derby. Without Trinniberg and horses like him in the race horses like Bodemeister and Hard Spun should be able to slow the pace early and have a little left for the end.
If I could be anywhere at any time it would be Keeneland in the spring.
Re: very debatable
stancaris wrote:TJ: You said, "any and all early speed horses that show up in this years Derby will be able to carry their speed a distance of ground."
That is not necessarily the case. There may be several early speed horses that run in this year's Derby that win their preps on the front end or tired to come in second in a major prep that allows them to get 50 points and despite getting into the Derby starting gate they really do not want any part of 10 furlongs.
Also, a horse like Bodemeister who goes wire to wire in the Ark Derby really did not want 10 furlongs and was probably best only up to 9 furlongs. If a horse goes wire to wire to win a 9 furlong prep and gets 100 points that does not necessarily make him a valid contender in the Derby. Frontrunning types seldom win the roses (only 3 in the last 25 years or 12%).
The new point system may give more of a chance to a frontrunner than the old system but in my opinion they are still not the type of runner you want to wager on in general at 10 furlongs in the Ky Derby. Horses that have tactical speed almost always do better in the win spot of the Derby. Horses like Funny Cide, Animal Kingdom, I'll Have Another, Street Sense, Super Saver, Barbaro etc. are examples of runners that can lay slightly off the pace and still win the roses.. Need the lead types seldom succeed in the run for the roses. War Emblem, Winning Colors, Go for Gin are the exception to the rule.
Hi Stan,
Seems you selectively read what I wrote to tell me something I said in my next breath....this is what I said "....any and all speed horses who show up in this year's Derby will be able to carry their speed a distance of ground. Although there is still no guarantee any of them can venture into "no mans land" and carry their speed 1 1/4 miles....."[i] TJ
carry their speed
TJ:
Is your point that the horses in this years Derby are likely to stay longer because the pace is not likely to be as fast with the Trinniberg's being absent? That conclusion may come true and you might get a wire to wire type winning but in my opinion it is very tough to lead the Derby wire to wire.
Lets look at the 5-2 favorite, Bellamy Road, in 2005. He was definitely the speed of the speed. He got the lead from the start in every one of his route races and won the Wood Memorial on the front end by 17 lengths with a 120 Beyer figure. One would think that he would be in front in this run for the roses. However, he broke fifth and made a run up to second at the mile point and faded to 7th. Main point: its very difficult to ascertain who will get the lead in the Derby when there are 20 runners competing in it.
Lets look at Medaglia D Oro who was the 6-1 second choice in the Derby of 2002. He looked like the speed of the speed in that he went six furlongs of the Wood Memorial in 1:10 flat and just got beat a head by Buddha at the finish. He looked faster than War Emblem who raced the first six furlongs of the Illinois Derby in 1:13. Yet War Emblem went to the front because Medaglia D Oro broke tardily and was in 10th position at the quarter.
Main point: it is very difficult to ascertain who will get the lead in the Derby.
One more example of why it is so difficult to predict the frontrunner. In the 2001 Derby there were 4 horses that looked capable of going to the front: Songandaprayer who raced second in the Blue Grass which would have given him 50 points by todays new point system, Millennium Wind who went wire to wire in the Blue Grass, Balto Star who went wire to wire in the Ark Derby, and Congaree who won the Wood after going 1:10 flat for six furlongs on the Bill Daly all the way. Songandaprayer got the lead and went the first six furlongs in 1:09 1/5. He faded before running a mile. Main point: These above 4 horses were not Trinniberg types since each of them either won a major 9 furlong prep race or were second in it (Songandaprayer). You could still get that kind of scenario this year if some of the major preps at 9 furlongs are won by wire to wire types or if a brilliant speed horse runs second in one of these preps. Those type of runners most likely will still set up the Derby for an off the pace type.
Now another scenario. Lets say there are only 3 wire to wire types in this years Derby and two of them break poorly and one is left with the lead. If that one on the lead can go six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 like War Emblem did in 2002, he might just go wire to wire in the clear to win the roses.
That last scenario certainly is possible but chances are despite the new point rules there will be a contested pace in the Derby as the best 3 year olds still compete together in a big field of 20 horses and it is likely that some of those 20 have big speed and are not just a Trinniberg type of sprinter-miler.
Is your point that the horses in this years Derby are likely to stay longer because the pace is not likely to be as fast with the Trinniberg's being absent? That conclusion may come true and you might get a wire to wire type winning but in my opinion it is very tough to lead the Derby wire to wire.
Lets look at the 5-2 favorite, Bellamy Road, in 2005. He was definitely the speed of the speed. He got the lead from the start in every one of his route races and won the Wood Memorial on the front end by 17 lengths with a 120 Beyer figure. One would think that he would be in front in this run for the roses. However, he broke fifth and made a run up to second at the mile point and faded to 7th. Main point: its very difficult to ascertain who will get the lead in the Derby when there are 20 runners competing in it.
Lets look at Medaglia D Oro who was the 6-1 second choice in the Derby of 2002. He looked like the speed of the speed in that he went six furlongs of the Wood Memorial in 1:10 flat and just got beat a head by Buddha at the finish. He looked faster than War Emblem who raced the first six furlongs of the Illinois Derby in 1:13. Yet War Emblem went to the front because Medaglia D Oro broke tardily and was in 10th position at the quarter.
Main point: it is very difficult to ascertain who will get the lead in the Derby.
One more example of why it is so difficult to predict the frontrunner. In the 2001 Derby there were 4 horses that looked capable of going to the front: Songandaprayer who raced second in the Blue Grass which would have given him 50 points by todays new point system, Millennium Wind who went wire to wire in the Blue Grass, Balto Star who went wire to wire in the Ark Derby, and Congaree who won the Wood after going 1:10 flat for six furlongs on the Bill Daly all the way. Songandaprayer got the lead and went the first six furlongs in 1:09 1/5. He faded before running a mile. Main point: These above 4 horses were not Trinniberg types since each of them either won a major 9 furlong prep race or were second in it (Songandaprayer). You could still get that kind of scenario this year if some of the major preps at 9 furlongs are won by wire to wire types or if a brilliant speed horse runs second in one of these preps. Those type of runners most likely will still set up the Derby for an off the pace type.
Now another scenario. Lets say there are only 3 wire to wire types in this years Derby and two of them break poorly and one is left with the lead. If that one on the lead can go six furlongs in 1:11 3/5 like War Emblem did in 2002, he might just go wire to wire in the clear to win the roses.
That last scenario certainly is possible but chances are despite the new point rules there will be a contested pace in the Derby as the best 3 year olds still compete together in a big field of 20 horses and it is likely that some of those 20 have big speed and are not just a Trinniberg type of sprinter-miler.
Hi Stan.
I thought my point was simple enough....and concerned the new point system. The power's that be were trying to eliminate sprinter's from being eligible to run in the Derby. They didn't hide the fact they were unhappy that Trinniberg was entered in the Derby. Proof being every graded stake's race Trinniberg ran in as a two year old were eliminated as qualifying prep races this year. Take it a step further, they effectively limit the top two year old's from a berth in the Derby. To think the Hopeful is no longer a race of value in the eyes of those in charge is sad....not a single Graded Stake in Saratoga is worth a single point....The Hopeful should have at least been allowed 10 points. That was the race that proved to me Secretariat was the best I ever saw when he shut down Linda's Chief with ease.
My point never had anything to do with the Derby and front end winner's. I think you may be confusing me with Sir Barton's post. TJ
I thought my point was simple enough....and concerned the new point system. The power's that be were trying to eliminate sprinter's from being eligible to run in the Derby. They didn't hide the fact they were unhappy that Trinniberg was entered in the Derby. Proof being every graded stake's race Trinniberg ran in as a two year old were eliminated as qualifying prep races this year. Take it a step further, they effectively limit the top two year old's from a berth in the Derby. To think the Hopeful is no longer a race of value in the eyes of those in charge is sad....not a single Graded Stake in Saratoga is worth a single point....The Hopeful should have at least been allowed 10 points. That was the race that proved to me Secretariat was the best I ever saw when he shut down Linda's Chief with ease.
My point never had anything to do with the Derby and front end winner's. I think you may be confusing me with Sir Barton's post. TJ
confused with Sir Barton
TJ: Yes, my response was really meant as a response to Sir Bartons post. Sorry for the mistake.
By the way by eliminating those 2 year old races like the Hopeful from the point gathering preps in no way prevents a good router from getting into the Derby. These types that perform well in stakes at age 2 going 7 furlongs can still get into the Derby gate. But they must earn their way in by doing well in route races like this weekends FOY or Risen Star or a 9 furlong prep to follow like the SA Derby, Fla Derby, Ark Derby, or Wood Memorial or Blue Grass.
I believe in the new point system because it gives the heavy points to those horses that run well at 8.5 and 9 furlongs, the longest race a horse competes in before running 10 furlongs in the Derby. If they do not fair well in those 8.5 and 9 furlong preps they don't belong in the Derby
By the way by eliminating those 2 year old races like the Hopeful from the point gathering preps in no way prevents a good router from getting into the Derby. These types that perform well in stakes at age 2 going 7 furlongs can still get into the Derby gate. But they must earn their way in by doing well in route races like this weekends FOY or Risen Star or a 9 furlong prep to follow like the SA Derby, Fla Derby, Ark Derby, or Wood Memorial or Blue Grass.
I believe in the new point system because it gives the heavy points to those horses that run well at 8.5 and 9 furlongs, the longest race a horse competes in before running 10 furlongs in the Derby. If they do not fair well in those 8.5 and 9 furlong preps they don't belong in the Derby
Re: confused with Sir Barton
stancaris wrote:TJ: Yes, my response was really meant as a response to Sir Bartons post. Sorry for the mistake.
By the way by eliminating those 2 year old races like the Hopeful from the point gathering preps in no way prevents a good router from getting into the Derby. These types that perform well in stakes at age 2 going 7 furlongs can still get into the Derby gate. But they must earn their way in by doing well in route races like this weekends FOY or Risen Star or a 9 furlong prep to follow like the SA Derby, Fla Derby, Ark Derby, or Wood Memorial or Blue Grass.
I believe in the new point system because it gives the heavy points to those horses that run well at 8.5 and 9 furlongs, the longest race a horse competes in before running 10 furlongs in the Derby. If they do not fair well in those 8.5 and 9 furlong preps they don't belong in the Derby
Hi Stan,
I agree....the Hopeful was a stepping stone to the Derby for a long time. It shows how the business has changed through the years as so many years we saw the Derby winner show his face at the Spa. Now any horse that runs in a 2YO stake there is of no consequence. Of course we will see Shanghai Bobby try to gain enough points to secure a Derby berth (when he runs in the Florida Derby)....after winning the Hopeful and BC Juvenile, but he does have that distance stigma hanging over his head. It's just changed a lot since the days when the Hopeful meant something. Today the race just hasn't seen the same success rate as years ago. Here's a handful of noted winners, Peter Pan, Regret, Man o' War, Whirlaway, Middleground, Bimelech, Battlefield, Native Dancer, Nashua, Needles, Hail to Reason, Jaipur, Buckpasser, What A Pleasure, Secretariat, Foolish Pleasure, Affirmed, Gulch and Afleet Alex. Different racing world and the new point system may prove worthy. TJ