Who has "NO CHANCE" of winning the Derby

[ratherrapid]

One thing's sure-- we always overlook something obvious in the PPs regarding the "winner" that we see post race in 20-20 hindsight. This being noted, CA Chrome as man among boys, possibly?

[Joltman]

Jagger- my proprietary algorithm says I will be razzing you after the Derby.

I have already purchased my bib for this year's crow entree, Affirmed!!!

Actually, I AM reconsidering Wildcat Red.

Vicar's In Trouble remains atop the most elite of my NO CHANCE list though.

VIT, if he breaks clean, will be well positioned early and there at least til the eighth pole.

jm

[murphysmom]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sp ... y/8235297/

[jagger]

NICE, murphysmom. Thanks.

[jagger]

OK. Joltman and Affirmed. No crow for me this year. For the record, my picks of horses having NO CHANCE finished 5,6, 9, 10, 16, 17, 18 and 19.

[Cree]

Commanding Curve.... well someone had to run 2nd.

[madelyn]

Yeah he ruined our trifecta ticket.. I have to admit to being so slammed lately I didn't pay a whit of attention to the Derby until 45 minutes prior when I printed out the pp's from the DRF. The first thing that hit me was "What is Harry's Holiday" doing in there?"

One of my pals in Lexington was very high on Master Command when he started at stud and was simply just beside himself with misery when MC died. Sometimes when a stallion dies young like that it is easy to overlook his few offspring but by all accounts Master Command was a really nice stallion. I am guilty in this case - I threw out Commanding Curve.

I found myself irritated by the inane commentary on California Chrome. The announcer called him a "ten thousand dollar horse" several times. While it is true that the stud fee for Lucky Pulpit was $2500 when CC was bred, and that the owner originally bought the broodmare for $8,000, it is a non sequitur. That does NOT make California Chrome a "ten thousand dollar horse".

[Cree]

I agree. That was their way of saying it was a "rags to riches" type story. They have to make a hero out of him, and that was their go to phrase. I rolled my eyes a lot yesterday while watching the Derby on TV. Some of the stuff they say just makes me want to scream.



Here's a great picture of Dallas Stewart with his two 2nd-place finishers:

https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/statu ... 65/photo/1

[Mahubah]

At least they actually stuck to stories about the horses and their connections this year instead of chasing vapid celebrities around or harping on PETA's allegations.

[jagger]

Mmmmmmm.....I don't know Avalyn. I saw quite a few interviews with celebrities who probably can't tell the difference between a zebra and a horse and Tara Lipinski and Johnny Weir? Really!!!!???

[Affirmed1]

Jagger- glad to hear you got to skip the crow. That stuff tastes nasty. I have concluded
that my proprietary algorithm needs some tweaking, but I will be in fine form by Preakness
time.

[jagger]

Jagger- glad to hear you got to skip the crow. That stuff tastes nasty. I have concluded
that my proprietary algorithm needs some tweaking, but I will be in fine form by Preakness
time.

Oh....I just put the crow in the freezer, Affirmed. My proprietary method did pretty good this time. Not always so though. The Preakness is the hardest race to figure for me. As much as was rooting for Rosie, I absolutely knew that horse had NO CHANCE, using my proprietary method . Seems like there as another horse that someone challenged me on....

[Affirmed1]

Yeah, Jagger, I feel shame. The highly touted (by me) Wildcat Red and Vicar's In Trouble
finished a riveting 18th and 19th, respectively. They would have finished 19th and 20th,
but, fortunately, the 20 horse scratched. I feel shame. However, I am certain that my
proprietary algorithm just needs some tweaking. Just a little tweaking. Yeah, I'll get right
on that.

[jagger]

Yeah, Jagger, I feel shame. The highly touted (by me) Wildcat Red and Vicar's In Trouble
finished a riveting 18th and 19th, respectively. They would have finished 19th and 20th,
but, fortunately, the 20 horse scratched. I feel shame. However, I am certain that my
proprietary algorithm just needs some tweaking. Just a little tweaking. Yeah, I'll get right
on that.

Never feel shame in this game. Everybody has his day. And, everybody looks foolish at times too. Really, this was my best year at predicting who had NO CHANCE. Truly though, using my proprietary method , Vicar's in Trouble was an easy pick to head the list, followed pretty closely by Harry's Holiday. Not bad, if I do say so myself. Of the 8 I picked to have NO CHANCE, 4 of them finished 16, 17, 18 and 19.

[Bill from WA]

Good job jagger.