Big Brown could be a Big Bust as a stallion

[bayrabicano]

TBG, That was a wonderful post and I wholeheartedly agree.

… For Three Chimneys to pay $50 million or more for him seems to be a huge gamble. The huge stud fee that will likely accompany that purchase price will also be a huge gamble. The odds sure aren’t in favor of Big Brown being a huge success at stud based on many years of history.

Well said and very true. It sure is fun to watch that boy run and if he does happen to make a few nice babies that run like that…well, I’ll be happy for those that made the gamble. But, you’re exactly right - odds are he won’t. It’s all so out-of-my-league that I can’t even comprehend it. $ 50 million dollars is a big pile of money.

Friday, May 16, 2008

World Bank grants Burundi 50 million dollars for electricity, water

The World Bank has approved a 50-million-dollar (32-million-euro) grant for Burundi to improve its electricity and water supply, the bank said Friday. The International Development Association (IDA) grant "addresses the urgent need to fill the current gaps between supply and demand in both electricity and water supply," the bank said in a statement. Burundi is struggling to emerge from 14 years of civil fighting that has left an estimated 300,000 people dead, mainly civilians, and the economy in tatters.

“Hello World Bank Grant Administrator...
I would like a little $ 50 million dollar grant so I can go see a man about a horse, please.”

[geowarrior]

I predict that Big Brown will be a regional sire within five years. Three Chimneys doesn't keep them forever (see Medallist, Albert the Great) and have so far done an abysmal job of marketing and supporting Smarty Jones. Their only good stallions are those that would have been good anywhere e.g. Dynaformer, Rahy, and in former times, Seattle Slew.

So now I've made a prediction, watch me get omelet on my face.

Certainly if he does not race after the Belmont, Big Brown will have to go on the list as the weakest Triple Crown winner ever. Even Omaha has his place in history in British racing where gained great respect in losing by a nose two extraordinarily exciting races.

[NorthStar]

Big Brown could be a big bust as a stallion based on hes pedigree which has very little black type and why pay tons of money to breed to a son of Boundary. He is a freak who wins with such ease and with his pedigree he should continue running because he has more to prove racing rather than to be the next $100,000 stud fee horse who becomes a flop at stud. How is Smarty Jones worth a $100,000 stud fee? Look at Conquistador Cielo a son of Mr. Prospector who was syndicated for a record price at the time and never really set the world on fire as a stallion. Fusaichi Pegasus another son of Mr. Prospector stallion was over priced and we are talking sons of Mr. Prospector. Mr. Prospector may be the best stallion that ever lived so what are the chances of a son of Boundary flopping at stud even if his name is Big Brown?

Keith

His 4he dam produced Hidden Lake (1997 Champion Older Female) by Quiet American. Also produced Ginistrelli. The female line is young. Perhaps the line produces large horses that are hard on themselves and therefore have a tough time making it to the races.

Most stallions are overpriced in today's uncertain market and racing environment, IMO. My biggest concern with Big Brown would be his front end alignment and how hard he may be on his suspensories and sesamoids.

[Keith]

$50 Million Dollar bust to pay for the next sure Triple Crown winner. I do like Big Brown but Big Brown's connections sure put steroids in the spotlight. The horse obviously was not ready to run in the Belmont and so much pressure is put on horses to run. No horse is perfect and every horse has an off day and no horse is unbeatable. Big Brown is a very nice horse but is he a great horse off such few starts I do not think so. Ghostzapper was overpriced but has a much better pedigree than Big Brown. Hopefully we see Big Brown go on to run more and have many great races under his belt. I would love to see him convert to Turf and go on to be champion turf horse and champion three year old. I like Big Brown as a racehorse but a $50 million dollar stallion is quite premature especially for a son of Boundary.

Keith

[spex4me]

That was the gamble they took. Had he won he'd never had to race again and would have been worth 100 million. So I think the smart move now would be to bring him around for a few more, because potentially heading to the breeding shed off a loss like this can surely not bode well. I think he is a NICE horse, and he'll probably be better with age, but great, no not right now.

[BenB]

Without the help from ton,s of medication this horse is not winning a single race anymore

[Pacific Classic]

He got lucky and was born into a weak 3-year-old crop. He showed what he is really made of yesterday. The rider easing him and continuing to gallop home was disgraceful. I hope they have an investigation. Jerry Bailey said immediately after the race "I don't think there is anything sinister going on here". I wonder.

He is a nice , not great horse - but $50 million worth? Somebody done got took.

[xfactor fan]

For those interested in genetics, take a look at the picture of Herat, a son of Northern Dancer. He's either got a white spot on his shoulder like Big Brown, or the largest flash glare spot in the world.

[bayrabicano]

X Factor,

My horse (Bold Leadership) has a small spot on that side, also.

Northern Dancer 4 x 4

Wondering if that's where it came from???

(Sorry to get off topic, just wondering if anyone else has horses with something similar...)

[xfactor fan]

Based on three samples I'd say Northern Dancer is the culprit.

[Keith]

Big Brown has been a bust at stud and whose to say California Chrome would make such a great stud either?

[bdw0617]

He's not a great sire but i would not go so far as to call BB a bust. he produces a few useful runners.


Not big on CC whatsoever in the stud barn. I think he's a freak of nature on the track. He's gonna have to prove me wrong.

[kimberley mine]

Here are the families of Big Brown's current-year stakes winners.

His current-year leading earner, Ground Control, is out of a Broad Brush daughter of major producer Prospector's Fire. Kiss To Remember is out of a multiple stakes-winning mare who has produced three other earners of more than $80,000, two of those earning nearly $200k. Mighty Brown is out of a mare who has produced 3 winners of over $100k from 3 to race, and is from the tail-female line of Broom Dance, End Sweep, Tempted, and Skimming. Contend is out of an El Prado half-sister to Gr-3 winners War Thief, Watch, and Prime Meridian, LWs Stop Watch and Remind, and the dam of LW Bind and SP Hakama.

Brown got good foals out of those mares because he SHOULD have been getting good foals out of those good running mares from good running families. But it still stands that the best he's done out of mares like that are a pair of Gr-3 winners. Compare to English Channel, who by this time in his third crop already had a much deeper resume, and wasn't wholly riding on the coattails of his mares like Brown is.

I wouldn't call him a total flop (he's not a Gentleman or Buddha), but there are far better stallions available at his price point (Successful Appeal, Yes It's True, Freud, Frost Giant, Jump Start, Street Boss) and he's a tough sell commercially.

[pedigreeann]

"He's not a great sire but i would not go so far as to call BB a bust. he produces a few useful runners. "

Silver Charm had a G2 winner and Derby candidate in the first crop, they still sent him to Japan.


"Not big on CC whatsoever in the stud barn. I think he's a freak of nature on the track. He's gonna have to prove me wrong."

I heard the same thing about another Calbred, who had a sire who never won a stakes race and a dam who broke her maiden and did nothing else. Big black beast with a coarse-ish head, name of Tiznow. He ever do anything?

[Cree]

It's hard to compare California Chrome to Tiznow. They are like night and day, only thing they share is they were born in the same state.

As it turned out, Tiznow wasn't just a freak of a nature from a relatively obscure breeding...that same breeding produced Budroyale, Tizbud, Tizdubai, Tizso (dam of Paynter), and Tizamazing (dam of Oxbow and Awesome Patriot). I don't think CC can say the same about his immediate family.