Afleet Alex

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Double_Jay
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Postby Double_Jay » Wed Jun 08, 2005 9:44 pm

Karie wrote:AA has done great with those training pratices, but wow.. that is a long workout in hot and humid temp... You can help but question it a little....

Hopefully it was REALLY early in the AM....


The last bit was a 8:30 am.

Don't think Ritchie or anyone else there realized it was going to be the hottest day of the year there (thus far). He'd already been stalled at PIM because of the strangles scare at BEL and needed to get Alex worked over the BEL track. Ritchey had a definite schedule planned for Alex in the weeks before the Belmont and he needed to stick with his plan as much as he could - this would not be the time to start messing with it. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the the heat or the distance that Alex went, he's not the fragile, hot-house flower type of horse that we're accustomed to.
Double Jay

marg
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Postby marg » Thu Jun 09, 2005 6:57 am

I realize that the triple crown is a hard path to follow-----if I had my way ,it would be for 4 year olds.We are a small farm.At the start ,we do not have the cash flow to go with the big boys as trainers from day one.In the racing we have done, which is not a lot,we have found that a lot of trainers service their bigger clients first and if they run short of time or something, then, it is the smaller owners horses who maybe don't get worked etc.I am not saying that I blame them, as I can understand it from a financial point of view.I would hope if we found a trainer and jockey who took our horse to such a high level, and did all they could to get him there,that I would be loyal to them.At what point would you switch and leave them high and dry?I know it might be tempting.All big trainers do not win either.I am sure Nick Zito would agree to that statement this year.I just hope if it ever happens that we do the honourable thing.In my opinion it would be to stick with the originals.Sincerely Marg.

wilf
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Postby wilf » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:55 pm

One of my favourite memories of winter racing at Penn National was winning the Harrisburg Handicap going a mile and a half on the dirt with ahorse that I had claimed for $4000. In that race on a cold January night in the early 90s we beat the favourite , a winner of his last six starts trained by none other than Tim Ritchey. He was very gracious in defeat and has come many miles since then. The last two triple crown contenders have gone into the Belmont a little too sharp for my liking and this is always a danger coming off a race like the Preakness. I am sure that Tim has seen that and is trying to temper the brilliance of Alex with these long gallops. I think that Alex is a special animal and is in the right hands to get the job done if he does have the stamina and the patience, I for one will be screaming for him, but remember it is TWELVE furlongs and will undo any horse with distance limitations. The triple crown has only been won by wonder horses for a good reason and there are several extraordinary horses who have been found out in the final phase..........Spectacular Bid and Northern Dancer easily come to mind may the best horse win and all come back safe. Wilf.

louis finochio
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Postby louis finochio » Thu Jun 09, 2005 1:58 pm

To BC: I remember last year that you liked Northern Afleet and I researched him and I liked many positives that I found in his makeup.

You picked a winner as Northern Afleet is a quality young stallion. How many mares have you bred to NA?
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:21 am

marg--great post ---you raise two points I would like to explore more with the other minds on this forum. I wonder whether I should do it under this post or start another. Let's try them here and we will see how it goes.

First---Why not move all the racing conditions for thoroughbreds back one year?---in other words--rather than have age restricted races at 2 and 3----make it 3 and 4, etc. As an example, the triple crown series would then be a series of 4 yr olds instead of 3 yr olds--how bad would that be for the industry? Breeder, Owner, Trainer and Fan? Why the need to rush the horse to be great 2 yr olds and great early at 3? Demonstrating precocity has its limitations and problems---two that come to mind are peaking early but not developing later and unsoundness due to too much pressure too soon. I can quickly think of some of the arguments against this move--tradition, training costs, etc but if you really stop to think about it, it probably has a lot of merit. What do others think?


Second----When is the time to switch from a loyal good and solid trainer or jockey to another more experienced trainer or jockey? Is it when your horse moves beyond the experience level of the original trainer or jockey? This is a really difficult decision and I am sure it could work out either way -----as it has in the past but I have learned to lean more toward the make the change when the horse outgrows the experience level of the trainer. I am specifically not referring to the trainers horsemanship or conditioning experience (racerx please take note of this point) but rather to their experience in other areas of the racing environment. I can give you a few off the top of my head but I could probably reel off a significant amount of additional factors that I think would be relevent to making the switch with a little more time but nowhere would this switch be more appropriate than a horse good enough to compete in the Triple Crown series. I will cite a few to get the ball rolling---having the courage and experience to know when a jockey change is required; selecting the best training and prep race schedule for the young animal; the experience to handle the multitude of tracks involved--hopefully with real and significant experience at each track and it's jockey colony; There is also a long list of much more mundane considerations like having a 24 hour crew complete with night watchman, etc; staff equiped to handle the travel schedule and all the things that go on around this kind of animal; having a network of exercise riders, blacksmiths and vets that can accomodate the extensive travel plans. These are just the tip of the iceberg as far as things that a trainer playing at this level must be prepared to handle. I would certainly want the most experience in my court as I could possibly have. As a case in point----who would you rather have operate on your heart??? the first time surgeon or the surgeon who has performed 1,000 successful heart operations already----no contest right? Well that is how I feel about the trainer and jockey situation. I want the best experience I can buy for that once in a lifetime horse. Just my opinions---what do others think? By the way, no one says you can't pay the original trainer and jockey in addition to the new players.
Last edited by bcassidy on Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:27 am, edited 4 times in total.
best regards Brendan

louis finochio
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Postby louis finochio » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:38 am

I have been on this bandwagon for years as all the horseman Ive talked with fully agree.

These young 3yr. olds are pushed to the max and theie is and handful of survivors and the rest are history.

To get the majority of TB breeders to go along with are line of thinking would be a miracle.

Lets hope in the years to come it will happen and save our TB from being thrown to the wind.
Those without sin cast the first stone.

Louis Finochio

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:06 am

louis---I have one mare, (my best mare) in foal to NA and I would have liked to have 2 more of my mares in foal to him but Taylor Made wouldn't accept them. I was a little surprised with Talyor Made as one of the two they rejected was a small stakes winner who won over 150k and who has already produced two foals that each made over 100k, so I am guessing that his book of mares has been elevated quite substantially. However I am very pleased that I did get one of my mares in foal to him, I think Northern Afleet will be one of the top five stallions in the very near future.
If you remember from my other posts I have a very objective and quite accurate system to gauge a stallion's producing ability. It has worked very well for me for 7 years or so and I have identified great stallions (before the general market finds them and their stud fees rise through the roof) Stallions like Montbrook, Elusive Qualtiy, Smoke Glacken, Mr Greely, Forest Wildcat, Distorted Humor, El Prado, West Acre, Eltish,Northern Afleet and others at very attractive stud fees. I will always share my information with those on this board for free but Northern Afleet scores as high in my system as many stallions already in the 100k and plus range. I think the sky is the limit with Northern Afleet. Thanks for asking about my mares.
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:23 am

Marg---is the honorable thing to stick with the trainer and ask them to do something which they haven't done before? or is the correct thing ( for horse, trainer, jockey and owner) to make the switch and then pay the original team and the new team on the success of the horse. I have made much less significant decisions and found that the money always help the original team to feel like their work was properly appreciated. Trainers and jockeys don't pay for an obvious mistake when they make one, but I do think making a change in trainer or jockey should not be a problem when it is warranted.
best regards Brendan

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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:39 am

WIlf----The distance limitations of any horse will be severely compromised with an inappropriate conditioning schedule or poor ride. I don't mean to get this whole other topic going again but can you really say that Smarty Jones had distance limitations after his race in the belmont? Don't pace and ground loss count for anything? As a handicapper, no one will convince me Smarty doesn't win the TC last year with a better trip in the Belmont. Experience riding at that distance is critical in my opinion. So who made the mistake? Elliot for blowing the pace or Servis for keeping Elliot on him?
best regards Brendan

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Fri Jun 10, 2005 9:47 am

hi bcassidy

You wrote "As a handicapper, no one will convince me Smarty doesn't win the TC last year with a better trip in the Belmont."

If by a "better trip" you include...a trip that didn't find Smarty 'on the muscle' you might be right...but I don't expect that any rider could have settled SJ that day...and if Elliot (or any rider for that matter) tried to take a better hold of Smarty...I sense he would have finished even farther back than he did.

You continued "Experience riding at that distance is critical in my opinion."

Agreed...experience is/was critical...and Elliot knew his mount like the back of his hand. Unfortunately Elliot couldn't settle his 'on-the-muscle' mount...but I don't expect that any other rider could have settled SJ that day. I suggest that even if Smarty was not 'on the muscle' the 1 1/2 mile distance would have been his unraveling (unless of course Birdstone didn't run). I submit that the better horse won that day.

The triple crown is an amazing undertaking. What if Victory Gallop moved a second or two later (or whatever)...Real Quiet would have been a triple crown winner (he lost by a NOSE as you know). And what if Touch Gold stayed in the barn on Belmont day...Silver Charm would have been a triple crown winner. And what if Charismatic held together for a few more strides? And what if Affirmed had not existed...Alydar would have been a triple crown winner. It's always what if.

I suggest that Zito absolutely...positively did an exceptional job preparing Birdstone for the Belmont. Conversely...Servis might have been lured into believing that victory was his destiny...and poo pooed Birdstone as a pretender. That being said...I'm not convinced that any other trainer could have prepared Smarty better for the third leg of the triple crown...and/or that any other rider could have delivered the kind of ride that would have guided SJ to victory over Birdstone going a mile and a half in the Belmont.

To my way of thinking...I believe that Birdstone was the deserving winner on Belmont day...he was cool...calm...and performed like a horse that was very well prepared for the Belmont and the mile and a half test. I believe that Smarty was also well prepared for a major Belmont effort (let's not forget he did finish second) but he was not cool and calm...and I don't believe that either Servis and/or Elliot should take blame for that. Regardless both Smarty Jones and Birdstone left it all on the racetrack...and Birdstone won fair and square. It was clearly his day.
And the frustration of the Smarty crew was exposed when trainer Servis Blamed jockey Jerry Bailey (and his ride on Eddington) for costing him the win. Elliot seemed cooler and more gracious in defeat. To my recollection, he made no excuses.

Best to you.

Respectfully

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Postby louis finochio » Fri Jun 10, 2005 6:04 pm

Most all distance TB are calm and have a reserved way about themselves.

SJ was the opposite as his temperant was the opposite of Birdstone.

The front runners like SJ have to take the pressure of the pace from every pole to the wire, as each TB makes a run to overtake the pace setter.

Then in the stretch the front runners have to find their second wind to hold off the stretch runners who are fresh from running the slow fractions early on.

SJ gave it all he had and showed the heart of a champion as he tried to hold off Birdstone but SJ reserves were all used up and couldnt come back and beat Birdstone.
Those without sin cast the first stone.

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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:08 pm

FOS---all very valid points and I am certainly not trying to take anything away from Birdstone, Zito or Prado. They won the race, SJ didn't.
However if one were to take my perspective on the race (and I am not saying everyone has to agree with me--but let's suppose for the sake of my argument that they do) isn't it a shame that SJ will forever be blamed for not being able to get the distance when in my opinion it was either Elliot's fault for blowing the pace and ground loss circumstances of the race or Servis's fault for leaving Elliot on SJ for the mile and a half.
In my opinion, the Derby and the Belmont are the two most interesting races in this series. Look at the recent history of these two races and there always seems to be so much drama around the outcomes. I can't wait to see the race tomorrow and it wouldn't surprise me to see another set of circumstances that will make tomorrow's race remarkable and unforgettable. I can envision scenario's in which AA wins by 15 or loses by 10. It's what makes the game so great to me. It's reality TV at it's best. Enjoy the show!
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Fri Jun 10, 2005 7:16 pm

Louis--understood but not every horse is one dimensional----if to make my argument SJ isn't a one dimesion horse and could have been rated--- would you then agree with me that it was human error that cost SJ the Triple Crown? Just curious what you would make of that argument.
best regards Brendan

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Postby FOS » Sat Jun 11, 2005 9:58 am

hi bcassidy

I always appreciate your insights and opinions.

You wrote "...in my opinion it was either Elliot's fault for blowing the pace and ground loss circumstances of the race or Servis's fault for leaving Elliot on SJ for the mile and a half."

bc...I suggest that on Belmont-day 2004 Smarty was on-the-muscle...didn't it appear that way to you? It seemed that after the break...Elliot had his hands full with Smarty almost immediately...and had a very difficult job to do (to say the least). It looked to me Smarty was not going to relax...and that Elliot did the best a jockey could do under the circumstances.

Even if Prado (as an example) had been on Smarty...I just don't believe that Smarty was going to settle down. Take a look back at some of his earlier races...it's probably fair to say that his style and/or demeanor (as we saw it on Belmont day) was nothing new. Maybe another trainer could have dealt with it differently than Servis...but I suggest that rider Elliot did the best possible with the hand he was dealt.

I can't fault Elliot...on the other hand (for what it's worth) I believe that Smarty was a better racehorse than Servis was a trainer. Maybe the result would have been different had SJ had different connections...but based on what I saw of SJ on Belmont day it was clear Elliot had his hands full with a horse that was unwilling to be cool and calm.

Regardless...even if he had been cool and calm...or had a different trainer and rider...I'm not convinced that SJ would have defeated Birdstone going a mile and a half.

Respectfully

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Sat Jun 11, 2005 12:37 pm

FOS--You suscribe to the premise that Smarty was incapable of being rated and therefore lost the race because of the pace he was forced to run, I suscribe to the theory that Elliot had tons of confidence in Smarty and rode him like pace and ground loss didn't matter. I will always believe with a better ride Smarty wins the belmont just as I think you will always believe that regardless of a better trip Birdstone would always beat Smarty at the mile and a half distance. This is one of the best things about this sport, there are many ways to interpret the same facts. Enjoy today's race and maybe we will have something else to discuss tomorrow.
best regards Brendan