Early Derby Picks and subsequent evolution . . .

[geowarrior]

Well not to derail the thread, but we are dealing with many horses which are still physically two years old. Some learn more quickly than others and improve gradually, some run too much when they are young and get fed up with it. Just two possibilities for differences in "peaking times" if you will.

[Toccet02]

that's a good point!

[Rokeby Forever]

I have to agree with Toccet on that point.

In the 1970s, 5 two year old champions won the KY Derby and one finished second. Today, we're lucky if a two year old champion even runs in the KY Derby.

Speaking of "spacing races out," Spectacular Bid won the World Playground, Champagne, Yong America, and Laurel Futurity in the course of only FIVE weeks. I kind of think he went on to become a pretty good three and four year old. Now, two year olds might run twice in five weeks and they won't develop further than they are.

Today, either the breed doesn't last, trainers don't know how to hold a horse together, medicines replacing horsemanship are taking their toll, or any combination of them. Every crop has had it share of "late bloomers," but today, it's hard to tell if a horse is truly a late bloomer because the "early bloomers" disappear so fast.

Why is Street Sense racing only twice before the KY Derby (The Hutchison and Bluegrass Stakes)? Is he made out of crystal?

[Ill-bred]

I think it's VERY intersting that Nafzger says he only wants two preps for Street Sense. Not what I would have expected from the trainer of Unbridled!!??

[Rokeby Forever]

Yeah, and even more interesting...why is the Bluegrass a consideration considering it's on Polytrack? Why change surfaces?

[Ill-bred]

He prepped for the BC Juvenile at Keeneland and it worked...

[Rokeby Forever]

That's true, Ill Bred, but his race prior to the BC Juvie wasn't on Polytrack.

[Sam]

Only thing about Street Sense - B.C. Juvenile jinx.

*yawn*

Someone will do it eventually. Just like a RAN broodie line was going to win eventually.

Street Sense was impressive... I'm just holding back until I see his 3yo debut. I've not seen anything that's really grabbed my attention yet.

[Ill-bred]

Street Sense was third in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland (Polytrackus) in his race before the Breeders' Cup.

[Ill-bred]

Only thing about Street Sense - B.C. Juvenile jinx.

*yawn*

Someone will do it eventually. Just like a RAN broodie line was going to win eventually.

And just like the six-week layoff that Barbaro won off of.

Look for the BC Juvie curse and the # of preps as a 3-yr-old to be the hot topic this year, with several key contenders planning only 2 or 3 races before the Derby.

[Rokeby Forever]

Yep, you're right, Ill Bred.

As far as Street Sense, I'm not sure how impressive his 3 year old debut will be - a 7 furlong race at Gulfstream Park, where he'll probably face sprint types (think about Keyed Entry last year). He'll then get a six week (or so) break before running in the Bluegrass. Now, he's never been farther than 1 1/16th miles - how are these two races in six months since his BC Juvie effort supposed to get him fit enough to run 1 1/4 miles?

[amanda1]

I hate to be the outsider here but I have to go with SCAT DADDY!

Partly emotional, totally hopeful, love the name, love the horse.

[Toccet02]

no opinions will be considered nuts, at least not by me.
By the way...remember to 'fess up if you drop your pick and root for another.

[Sam]

no opinions will be considered nuts, at least not by me.
By the way...remember to 'fess up if you drop your pick and root for another.

Feh... anything from me this early is a loyalty thing.

Another Kris and Delightful Kiss are both Kissin Kris sons.

[zinn21]

After watching Exhale break his maiden last Saturday, I'll hang my hat on him for the derby. He's as physically gifted as Tiz Wonderful but with a much higher cruising speed. He's also got a great mind for the game.