The Preakness

[TJ]

Wow!

I was thinking what Whirlaway typed

I'll Have Another (triple crown, I hope!)

I am prepared to eat crow if Bodemeister wins, but I have serious concerns about him. At a gallop, he's shaking like a jackhammer. I know he looks better at a faster pace, but that motion has to put a strain on him in training.

Hi Lisann,
You are right about Bode's way of going...he looks a little funny in his left hind. I wouldn't be surprised if that's why he missed his 2YO season. But, no matter what the outcome....no eating crow, only Kudos to those that picked the winner:>) TJ

[TJ]

Should be a fun race to watch.

Here is what I've read on the bounce from the book, Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century by Steve Davidowitz . . . It is the esteemed New Yourk handicapper Len Ragozin's contention that horses tend to "bounce," or drop off in form, as a consequence of two interrelated factors:

* When they have exerted "an effort" that taxes their physical limitations.

* When they are brought back to the races too soon for full recovery to occur.

I thought Bode was gonna bounce in the Derby - he didn't, so I've gotta think he is more likely to bounce now than he did then. Were he a horse bred some 50 years ago, I'd lean the other way, but with these swifty types and his last two being fully extended, I've got to lean against him in this one.

I'll Have Another shows perfect scheduling with fresh legs; gets a drop in distance and a drop in class; shows tactical speed; goes from post position 19 to post position 9; shows text book works for a Triple Crown winner; won the Santa Anita Derby with just a few pops of the whip - I think he won that race in what amounted to more or less a hand ride; shows the same pattern in the Kentucky Derby - gets the perfect trip and felt the whip only slightly, a couple of times inside the 3/16ths and twice more inside the last furlong, the remaining distance it was a hand ride; professional job in his last two by the young jockey not overextending the horse; I would like to have seen a work, but I'm no trainer and I figure the horse is dead fit. I think he wins romping with the jockey easing him in the final furlong. This horse may be just what a dying sport needs in this its most perilous time.

I'll Have Another
Creative Cause
Bodemeister

Best of racing luck.

Hi Whirl,
Great job of handicapping....TC here he comes:>) Kudos to Wangkw and Lisann too! TJ

[Bill from WA]

Good job Whirlaway.
Went The Day Well just didn't have it at all today and Daddy Nose Best was a real disappointment. Both finishing way back. I didn't cash a thing. I stupidly left Zetterholm out of my super after touting him pre-race. I'm rooting for a triple crown winner and for that talented young Jockey (who I have seen ride at Emerald Downs).

Bill

[madelyn]

I believe that O'Neill did it EXACTLY right with I'll Have Another - whisked him off to Pimlico right after the Derby so the horse, the rider, and the whole crew could get comfortable with the track.

[bdw0617]

after watching the race again i think mike smith lost the race.

he tried to baby the pace too much and he moved too late he should have moved earlier. by the time they turned into the stretch he should have opened up. instead he waited until they hit the stretch to try to open up.

yeah he got 23 and 4 47 and 3 but mike smith did not take advantage of that. he should have ran a carbon copy of the Rachel Alexandra preakness and by the time you are in the stretch you have opened up 5 and play catch me if you can.

he waited until he got into the stretch and tried to shake loose. IHA is too good to do that.

[jagger]

Affirmed and Alydar?

[Mahubah]

after watching the race again i think mike smith lost the race.

he tried to baby the pace too much and he moved too late he should have moved earlier. by the time they turned into the stretch he should have opened up. instead he waited until they hit the stretch to try to open up.

yeah he got 23 and 4 47 and 3 but mike smith did not take advantage of that. he should have ran a carbon copy of the Rachel Alexandra preakness and by the time you are in the stretch you have opened up 5 and play catch me if you can.

he waited until he got into the stretch and tried to shake loose. IHA is too good to do that.

He'd've had a staggering horse if he had -- track was playing slower and more tiring than normal all day and it would have been telling by the time they hit the stretch. As it was, it looked to me like Bodemeister was an exhausted colt during the gallop-out, much more so than I'll Have Another, though maybe someone else might have a different opinion. Give Bodemeister his due -- he's run three bang-up races in a row and just got beaten by a slightly better horse in the last two.

[bdw0617]

after watching the race again i think mike smith lost the race.

he tried to baby the pace too much and he moved too late he should have moved earlier. by the time they turned into the stretch he should have opened up. instead he waited until they hit the stretch to try to open up.

yeah he got 23 and 4 47 and 3 but mike smith did not take advantage of that. he should have ran a carbon copy of the Rachel Alexandra preakness and by the time you are in the stretch you have opened up 5 and play catch me if you can.

he waited until he got into the stretch and tried to shake loose. IHA is too good to do that.

He'd've had a staggering horse if he had -- track was playing slower and more tiring than normal all day and it would have been telling by the time they hit the stretch. As it was, it looked to me like Bodemeister was an exhausted colt during the gallop-out, much more so than I'll Have Another, though maybe someone else might have a different opinion. Give Bodemeister his due -- he's run three bang-up races in a row and just got beaten by a slightly better horse in the last two.

i agree the track had been playing unusually slow all day long. usually pimlico is a speedway.

but i mean, at the end of the day, knowing what we know now that's the only way you are going to beat IHA. you aren't going to line up next to him head to head in the stretch and out kick him home unless you
are ghostzapper or zenyatta or curlin.

I think what i am trying to say that going into the race, if i were mike smith, i probably would have honestly done the same thing as he did b3eucase i too through that his horse was just better than the others. i could use the 09 Preakness as an example of how to win in front running fashion but the difference is borel knew he would Rachel would have to run her eyeballs out to win and he rode her like it. Mike smith rode BM like a horse that all he had to do is not lose the race.

what i am trying to say is in RETROSPECT it was wrong. i can't call him a bad jockey becuase i would have made the same conclusions as did everyone who put money on BM as the fav did that in losing he really was the best horse in the derby. and he still might be better. but he vastly underestimated his competition as did everyone else. yeah he was tired, but still BM is classy enough to still put that race out. the jockey as did everyone else just went in with the wrong game plan and lost.

that won't happen again.

[TJ]

I believe that O'Neill did it EXACTLY right with I'll Have Another - whisked him off to Pimlico right after the Derby so the horse, the rider, and the whole crew could get comfortable with the track.

Hi Madelyn,
I agree with you 100%....we're talking about the rider and horse being sensational, but no one is giving O'Neill the credit he deserves. This horse has some gaps in his form...yet he was able to bring him back with these three races in a shorter span of time then any of his other races. He made the two week turnaround into the Preakness look easy. This guy is talented. TJ

[bdw0617]

I believe that O'Neill did it EXACTLY right with I'll Have Another - whisked him off to Pimlico right after the Derby so the horse, the rider, and the whole crew could get comfortable with the track.

Hi Madelyn,
I agree with you 100%....we're talking about the rider and horse being sensational, but no one is giving O'Neill the credit he deserves. This horse has some gaps in his form...yet he was able to bring him back with these three races in a shorter span of time then any of his other races. He made the two week turnaround into the Preakness look easy. This guy is talented. TJ

i'll be 100% honest about this.

a lot of stuff has gone right for doug o'neil. Reddem overruled O'neil when he wanted to put IHA in a downhill turf sprint but reddem wanted to put him in the robert B lewis. O'neil wanted to put him in the race against CC and BM and reddam didn't.

really if anyone deserves credit it's the owner not doug o'neil to this point.

but i will give credit where it's due. that month of april that he had in the works, you could tell o'neil was putting in work. i think he knew he had a real chance to win the race, but at the same time he didn ot know if he had the best horse in the race so he trrained him like a horse who has to peak. and he did.

with him being as fresh as he is, being bred to run all day long, no real work was needed between the derby and preakness. keep him fit and happy.

this is my big concern with O'neil. he's very Jekyll and hyde. he'snot a bad trainer. he's actually a pretty good trainer when he feels like being. but for him to do his best, he has to be in the underdog role. i never bet money on a doug o'neil favored horse.

maryfield, stevie wonderboy, sky jack, lava man at the beginning of his career, i'll have another in the derby hell event he preakness the race was all but given to BM.

what scares me now is that he is going to go "lava man" on IHA. by "going lava man" what i mean is, now that he has beaten BM 2 times, i fear that Doug O'neil thinks/knows he has the best horse in the race. if he knows he has the best horse in the race i fear that his mindset will go from trying to run a peak race to well shit if i just get him there healthy and sound he will do the rest. the michael matz special if you will.

it's not just that doug loses big time races usually. everyone loses big races. but the things he does leading up to big races, always just leaves me saying WTF? lol i remember shaking my head when he ran lava man in that BS restricted grass race in the sunshine millions and figured off that he was good enough to go and run int he sheema classic lol. or how in 07 he had 3 golden bullets in the derby in feb and by may he had an empty holster.

i am worried his mindset is going to change. for the first time now he's the top dog. i am worried if he is going to change things up with him now that he thinks he has the best horse.

[bdw0617]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TD9AwA-N4EU

i go back to this race becuase in my mind Rachel and bode really are the same horse.

notice, calvin really doesn't so much make a bold move but he starts to really let her extend going into the turn and he uses the entire turn to get as much distance as he can between them and from there it's come and get me. not saying calvin was right i mean he was, but he rode the race like that becuase he knew he would not win the race if he tried to baby the lead and out out kick everyone in the stretch.

i am quite sure mike smith would have done the same thing had he felt the need to. he did just that in the derby. he did not do it in the Preakness becuase in his mind there was no nee dto. who was he going to take the race to? all he had tod o was not burn the horse out and not fall off and he would win on sheer talent.

i am quite sure he vastly as did i and most everyone underestimate Ill have another. that's a race horse. both of them are.

[madelyn]

Good point, bdw. But maybe O'Neill has learned from past mistakes? Also, Reddam seems to be very on top of his horse. It would be to O'Neill's credit that he actually listens to the owner - a lot of trainers give owners lip service and do what they were going to do anyway. I think Barry Irwin referred to that once in a public interview..

I was surprised that they rushed off to Pimlico because it was originally stated, right after the Derby, that O'Neill planned to stay at Churchill to train for the Preakness. Which to me is a very classic dumbs**t move. So many trainers "been there, done that" and blew the Preakness. The Preakness is a shorter race and it is on a really different track. We are talking about the star of the show being just a three year old horse, who is completely and utterly in learning mode. Why would you NOT go immediately to the next track so the horse could learn its environment, the configuration, etc.? If I was ever lucky enough to have a horse of this caliber I don't care if I had to sleep in a tent I would be taking that horse to the next venue to prepare. So we will see now if they ship directly to Belmont, to let IHA learn The Big Sandy, to get ready for the next leg..

[Mahubah]

I don't think Smith tried to baby the lead -- he had Bodemeister galloping along on a loose rein and just let the horse do what came naturally with his high cruising speed. Pushing him earlier might actually have been counterproductive. But, hey, differences of opinion are what make these discussions fun!

[jagger]

Agree, Mahubah. And, I would just like to say what everybody seems to have trouble saying....IHA is just the better horse.

[Crystal]

what has the Preakness taught us..

You don't need to play by the rules and can multiple therapeutic med violations but still get to the TC

You don't need to graduate high school to earn over $100k in 2 weeks in this game. And this has been proven over and over again..

Sad but true.