Big Brown!

[Patuxet]

Wow, what an impressive performance! Let's hope he stays healthy and, along with the commendable move to keep Curlin competitive beyond his classic year, ignites some desperately needed public excitement for this sport we all love. Lately it seems all it's been about is peddling stallion semen.

[justmares]

Agree with you Patuxet....on both observations....the performance of BB and the "peddling".
The colt looked a bit "green" coming down the stretch....sort of bounding happily along. Once he becomes more professional....well, watch out!!

[justmares]

Agree with you Patuxet....on both observations....the performance of BB and the "peddling".
The colt looked a bit "green" coming down the stretch....sort of bounding happily along. Once he becomes more professional....well, watch out!!

[Heidilady]

Let's hope his feet hold up. Seems our hero here literally has an Achilles Heel, or 4 of them as it were. $550 a pair for his shoes. Custom made glue-ons. Gotta admit, he's cute. I wonder if he decided he'd spent enough time on the outside and middle of the track and didn't want the rail to feel lonesome before he was finished, thus the swing inward. I think we'll have fun with him and War Pass in the Derby. They say Big Brown doesn't need the lead and can stalk but we all know that some things just go out the window on Derby Day. And let's not even make assumptions before we see the post positions. I'll root for all of them to stay sound up through the big one and I look forward to the excitement.

Anyone wanna guess the Beyer?

[AscotStud]

Can't be more than a 105, since Electrify was 3 lengths faster, under similar handling. He was green and will improve...but will he improve enough in the Derby??? Me says NO. Pyro looks good, I also like a few of the west coast fellas, Colonel John and Georgie.

Smooth Air was also deceptively good, he will be forgotten come Derby day, but ran a hell of a race and at over 20-1 will get some play from me, and be in my tickets 2nd spot and lower all day.

[LC]

I'll go out on a limb & say he'll get a 108.

[London]

Big Brown was extremely impressive but I think this is his best distance and the race went perfectly for him.

I can't see him sustaining this run at 10f while being pushed the whole way and others coming flying up from the back.

The one in the race who I think deserves some mention for the derby is Tomcito. I know a few posters questioned his class coming into the race but I think he showed some good talent coming off a long layoff. He should really enjoy the longer distance of the derby and will have more room to make that run of his.

I still think Pyro deserves the top of everyone's Derby list for now.

[Whirlaway]

I think his BSF will probably be off the charts, 114 - 116. How does any horse repeat that performance? Nevertheless, a most excellent race by the Big Brown. I don't doubt his ability. The only question I have is his emotional maturity as he seemed a bit unsettled by the crowd as he was going into the gate. I've been to the Derby and have seen the crowd, particularly at the paddock, chaos. If he can stay calm through that part he then has to put up with War Pass sitting on his flank or kickin' some dirt in his face. I for one think he'll melt down from all the pressure, similar to Bellamy Road. It is my opinion that he just doesn't have the necessary seasoning to go the the Kentucky Derby and win it.

Smooth Air ( I still haven't picked a winner) made an impressive move around the turn, thought he might have had a chance, but just couldn't get to the leader. Nevertheless a fine effort and with that second place he gets to the big dance. I liked the fact that he ran on the sand at Tampa and then came back to the dirt at Gulfstream after a couple of workouts at a mile. Handlers did an outstanding training job here and the horse demonstrated the ability to adjust to different surfaces; he should be dead fit and fresh come the Derby. I have my doubts as to whether he can go deep. We'll see what kind of workouts they put under him before the first Saturday in May.

Tomcito came from dead last to get up for third and as another poster eluded to he should improve come the Classic distance. How can any horse win the Derby with only one prep race? I'd like to see him win it but sure is asking a lot; think he is pointed to the last true Classic, the Belmont Stakes.

This Derby Trail has proved most interesting. I can't point to a favorite. We've got some good races left before the Derby and I'm interested to see how the top contenders do come the Wood Memorial.

[TJ]

Big Brown is what is affectionately called a freak. He is one of the best I have ever seen and I have seen all the recent Triple Crown winners since Secretariat. His only stumbling block will be if his feet can hold up to training and the hard surface he will have to put up with at Churchill Downs.
I posted :
Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:02 pm Post subject: Big Brown
This soon to be 3YO hasn't missed a beat since he arrived at Palm Meadows. Brown registered his 5th breeze since November 29th this AM. Although he's touted as a grass horse, his dirt moves have been quite encouraging with only one of his five works being on the turf course. He worked 3/4's in company with Diamond Stripes today over a slightly slow and tiring track. IF (such an appropriate word to begin this next sentence:>) he continues to train like this on the dirt, I believe he will be a real threat in both Derby's, Florida and Kentucky. TJ

This thread did of course bring much conjecture, yet Brown went about his business and did exactly what I thought he could as long as he stays healthy. With Ricky Dutrow at the helm I think this will only increase his chances. I could tell yesterday that Ricky is still very concerned for Big Brown, as he cut short his interview, to get back to his horse to see how he was. The next six weeks will be critical as to Big Brown's issues with his feet. He does remind me of Baby Huey (Seattle Slew) with his natural raw ability. There is no telling how good he will get when the light bulb goes on:>) TJ

[Whirlaway]

He is one of the best I've ever seen and I have seen all the recent Triple Crown winners since Secretariat.

I'll just name a few since Secretariat: Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Swale, Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Sunday Silence ... There are quite of few true and proven Champions in that list. Big Brown has some work to do yet.

You might want to check the numbers to see how he really did when compared to the other Derby Contenders. You can find those numbers here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2008_derby_pace_parameters.htm and here:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm

[jagger]

Big Brown was not in my top 3 as I didn't think this was his distance. I think , as his conduit mare profile indicates, he will get better with another furlong...or 3 ...here's hoping anyway.

Who is ultimately repsonsible for this horse's feet? That would be quite a bit of pressure. I would want it to be a committee unless someone was very confident.

If he stays fit, he will be a fine example of inbreeding working. He is 3 x 3 to Northernd Dancer through his fine sons Danzig and Nureyev, 3 x 4 to Damascus through daughters and 4 x 5 through daughters to Round Table. Ellen Parker of reine de course fame will surely love the 4 x 5 to her favorite, Round Table, and he will surely get her vote for HOY if he does anything.

[TJ]

He is one of the best I've ever seen and I have seen all the recent Triple Crown winners since Secretariat.

I'll just name a few since Secretariat: Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, Swale, Spend a Buck, Alysheba, Sunday Silence ... There are quite of few true and proven Champions in that list. Big Brown has some work to do yet.

You might want to check the numbers to see how he really did when compared to the other Derby Contenders. You can find those numbers here: http://www.chef-de-race.com/pace_parameters/2008_derby_pace_parameters.htm and here:
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm

Hi Whirlaway,
I don't need to look at numbers to see how good Brown is, although I know you like numbers....his PF is one of the highest, if not the highest on Dr. Romans 3YO list.....a -89PF is very respectable. This boy has yet to get the picture, he is running so easy out there his ears are going everywhere put flat back on his head in a full out run. There's a lot left in his tank.....the day he lays his ears back look out.
I have certainly seen all those horses you mentioned, two of the best were galloped by two good friends of mine and I had the pleasure of seeing them as unraced two year olds....I have also seen Big Brown too, he has as much ability....unfortunately he has brittle feet....the reason why he started his career on the turf and now runs in specially made shoes to distribute his weight better and are glued instead of nailed on. I am glad Dutrow has him....Brown is in good hands to get him there and Dutrow will do what is best for this horse to protect him along the classic trail. You did note he was outworking Diamond Stripes when he was a two year old and Stripes just won yesterday in Dubai. TJ

[vineyridge]

He is 3 x 3 to Seattle Slew through his fine sons Danzig and Nureyev,

He's actually 3x3 to Northern Dancer.

I LOVE his pedigree. But I wonder where the "brittle" feet come from. Were I his people, he'd definitely be on a heavy duty hoof supplement, like Nu Hoof.

[Stevie Belmont]

Im gonna say he got a 110....

[AscotStud]

it was a 106...I was close