Thoughts on racing 2yos

[aethervox]

This is my first post to this forum, but I've been interested in horse racing for years.

After watching Eight Belles break down in the derby, and seeing the outcry about it, I thought I'd post my own thoughts on how to approach the problem. Please understand that I am not an owner or breeder so I'm approaching this primarily as a fan and admirer of these beautiful animals

Personally, I think there are two major factors in the decision to run horses as two-year-olds:

The first was the change in tax laws that forced breeders to show a profit two years of every seven to be considered a 'business' and not a 'hobby', and that changed the deductions people could take before the horse made a profit. See this New York Times Article

The second was the graded stakes earnings rule if more than 20 horses enter the Kentucky Derby. If an owner wants to have a chance of getting into the Derby, their horse has to make money.

A possible solution for the first factor would be to have different standards of judging whether or not a breeder runs a business or does it as a hobby, other than profit/loss. I'm not sure what those would be, perhaps a they have to prove that a certain percentage of the horses they breed win in races. I would also allow all members of a partnership to deduct a percentage of the costs of owning and training the horse before it makes a profit, as long as the horse is under three years old.

For the second, I'd like to see Churchill downs adopt the Breeder's Cup 'win and you're in' scenario. Designate a certain number of prep races as 'auto qualifiers' for the Kentucky Derby and then use the earnings rule for the rest of the field. It would give some of the later developing horses a chance at the Kentucky Derby even if they don't race much as two year olds.

Any other comments or thoughts?

aethervox

[bdw0617]

damn.. you came with it for your first post.


every breakdown his it's own story. this one, in my opinion is because, and this is just my opinion (sam), that they could have done a better job of mapping her path to the derby if it was a viable option.

[Sysonby]

Two year old racing is almost as old as the sport itself. Man O'War (1919); Citation (1947); Secretariat (1972) all ran as 2 year olds in the year listed. Even the Iron Warriors like Exterminator, Kelso and John Henry all ran and won in their juvenile year. Citation and Native Dancer broke their maidens as 2 year olds in April! Affirmed, John Henry, Swaps and Nashua all waited until May.

So I'm having a hard time thinking that there is really a problem with it per se. If you pushed me to come up with real differences between the horses you saw yesterday and the 70s, I'd look first to the way they are prepped and then to the sales and maybe after that I'd focus on breeding and the tracks etc

First of all, the money invested in bloodstock is getting too stupid. After these two bad races, Pyro may have lost $10 million in value. I'm in no way criticizing Asmussen or the other connections but that's too much money at stake to expect decisions to always be rational. There's much too much emphasis on getting to the race undefeated (or just getting to the race) so trainers are mapping out super conservative campaigns that (I believe) don't test horses enough physically and mentally and they are not toughened up for the real work in these big races. After all, you can't lose races or prestige in the stall or on the back stretch. Typically horses used to run 10-14 times before the Derby in the 70s. Yesterday there was not a single horse in the field with more than 8 starts. I know it worked for Big Brown but personally I think that's like trying to climb Mt Everest after a little personal training at the local gym. You might do it but you also might fall off the mountain.

But while runners need to be stressed, they also need breaks which is where the sales come in. It used to be in the best outfits that the horse would dictate the calendar and sales prep meant pulling the babies out of field on a certain date and pulling their manes. But now sales prep even for weanlings is a pretty intensive thing and if the baby keeps getting pinhooked and then goes to the races as a 2 year old, he may not have had many breaks. Again not criticizing anyone in particular but the parts of the game have definitely changed over the last 25-30 years and not necessarily for the better. But again in light of the commercialization of the game, how can you really blame anyone?

Those are just my thoughts after a very emotional day yesterday and then discussing it this morning with some non racing horse owners at my boarding barn who just couldn't understand what happened and wanted answers. Not that I really have any to give but that was the first thing that came to mind.

[aethervox]

Two year old racing is almost as old as the sport itself. Man O'War (1919); Citation (1947); Secretariat (1972) all ran as 2 year olds in the year listed. Even the Iron Warriors like Exterminator, Kelso and John Henry all ran and won in their juvenile year. Citation and Native Dancer broke their maidens as 2 year olds in April! Affirmed, John Henry, Swaps and Nashua all waited until May.

That is a valid point, and I'm not suggesting banning all two year old racing. I'd just like to see the pressure taken off the owners/trainers to make a profit with 2 year olds so they can take tax deductions.

Please note that I'm not saying that racing as a two year old caused Eight Belles breakdown, but that's the perception that's out there in the general public.

So I'm having a hard time thinking that there is really a problem with it per se. If you pushed me to come up with real differences between the horses you saw yesterday and the 70s, I'd look first to the way they are prepped and then to the sales and maybe after that I'd focus on breeding and the tracks etc

See my response above. I think that if the tax laws were changed, then breeders might want to keep some of their best horses to race instead of selling them because they have to show a profit that year.

First of all, the money invested in bloodstock is getting too stupid. After these two bad races, Pyro may have lost $10 million in value. I'm in no way criticizing Asmussen or the other connections but that's too much money at stake to expect decisions to always be rational. There's much too much emphasis on getting to the race undefeated (or just getting to the race) so trainers are mapping out super conservative campaigns that (I believe) don't test horses enough physically and mentally and they are not toughened up for the real work in these big races. After all, you can't lose races or prestige in the stall or on the back stretch. Typically horses used to run 10-14 times before the Derby in the 70s. Yesterday there was not a single horse in the field with more than 8 starts. I know it worked for Big Brown but personally I think that's like trying to climb Mt Everest after a little personal training at the local gym. You might do it but you also might fall off the mountain.

I think that if the focus was off of making money to get into the derby, and that if trainers knew they could focus on non-graded stakes races to prep their horses for one of the 'win and get in races' then things might change. It would also allow trainers to take their time with slower developing horses and know that they could still get in the Derby with several allowance wins and one or two graded stakes wins.

I also think that the 'win and get in' scenario has the potential to draw more people to the sport if it's properly advertised.

Thanks for your thoughts!

[larrygene]

Three factors affecting 2 yr old TB racing today, 1. quick return on investment 2. influence of QH racing, i.e., Lukas, Baffert,Asmussen, others, 3. blatant breeding of fast unsound horses!!! All these factors combined leaves you with a short lived career as a racehorse!!!!!

[Outermonvolia]

I for one don't think two year old racing is a negative, I really think it is a positive. For my money drugs are the culprit. In the old days trainers gave their horses time to heal from soft tissue and related problems. Today the trainers give the horse a drug or two and enter the horse. Ban all drugs nationwide and the number of breakdowns will decrease. In addition breeding to fast horses that are unsound is a common practice nowadays. Seems everyone wants a fast horse that will give a quick return on their investment.

[halfbridled]

Some trainers will find a way to break down just about anything..
I have a list of trainers that I am pretty sure would take care of a 2 year old quite nicely.
I have a list of trainers that I would not allow to be the caretaker of my daughter's betta.

[oliverstoned]

every breakdown his it's own story. this one, in my opinion is because, and this is just my opinion (sam), that they could have done a better job of mapping her path to the derby if it was a viable option.[/quote]

I agree with you bdw on her path to the Derby but I think the main factor is that she is by Unbridled's Song ( big and pretty with spindely legs)

[Shammy Davis]

One of the best books on the subject of training juveniles is Carol Silver's CLASSIC LIVES. It's somewhat outdated as it is a portrayal of 17th Lord Derby's Thoroughbred racing organization in England and Ireland. Bernard van Custem was Lord Derby's trainer. Here is what he had to say in 1967 as he prepared to nominate juveniles for the English and Irish classics. Referring to horses in his stable that were far too young for their abilities to known, he was quoted:

Your'e completely in the dark. You've got to put in the classics anything that has the breeding and is a good individual. It's an appalling lottery.

In the previous chapter he was quoted:

In theory, I'd like not to run two-year-olds, but in practice it's impossible not to. I'm talking about nice two-year olds, not little rats. But it's unfair to owners not to race them, expecially if they turn out later to be no good."

That was 31 years ago. Not much has changed.

[Joltman]

Well, with another TV catastrophe, all of the opininsters are at it. Thank God that neither of the JOCKEYs of the fallen horses at ChD this weekend were hurt. My condolences to the connections of those who have suffered so.

For my nickel's worth - I've run 2yos with nominal success and also held back seemingly mature 3yos to fully mature and run as 4yos with similar results. Yes, the early maturing types can certainly get out and go young. I recall living in Louisianna when they ran the Jean Lafitte Futurity at DeD in March - it was the biggest purse for the average breeder - owner to realistically chase and a lot of those folks were more QH trainers than anything. It is rare that the early maturing 2yo stays ahead of the entire population long enough to make it to the BC Juvenile, let alone the Derby. Many that mature later (and run longer) are just coming into their own at 3.

The good news is that with the BC money out there, there is NO financial reason to rush a horse to the Classics, especially throwing a filly to the boys. And yes, some like Barbaro will be coming around at just the right time and STILL be subject to breakdown. If the marketplace valued soundness and quality those horses with multiple starts over multiple years (yes maybe even some in claiming ranks) would carry the day.

It is an inexact science at best but the lack of rationality at the highest levels (Green Monkey) does nothing but encourage more of the same among people who have too much money to play with and not enough horse sense to go with it.

jm

[horsenuts]

This is my first post to this forum, but I've been interested in horse racing for years.

After watching Eight Belles break down in the derby, and seeing the outcry about it, I thought I'd post my own thoughts on how to approach the problem. Please understand that I am not an owner or breeder so I'm approaching this primarily as a fan and admirer of these beautiful animals

Personally, I think there are two major factors in the decision to run horses as two-year-olds:

The first was the change in tax laws that forced breeders to show a profit two years of every seven to be considered a 'business' and not a 'hobby', and that changed the deductions people could take before the horse made a profit. See this New York Times Article

The second was the graded stakes earnings rule if more than 20 horses enter the Kentucky Derby. If an owner wants to have a chance of getting into the Derby, their horse has to make money.

A possible solution for the first factor would be to have different standards of judging whether or not a breeder runs a business or does it as a hobby, other than profit/loss. I'm not sure what those would be, perhaps a they have to prove that a certain percentage of the horses they breed win in races. I would also allow all members of a partnership to deduct a percentage of the costs of owning and training the horse before it makes a profit, as long as the horse is under three years old.

For the second, I'd like to see Churchill downs adopt the Breeder's Cup 'win and you're in' scenario. Designate a certain number of prep races as 'auto qualifiers' for the Kentucky Derby and then use the earnings rule for the rest of the field. It would give some of the later developing horses a chance at the Kentucky Derby even if they don't race much as two year olds.

Any other comments or thoughts?

aethervox

Nothing wrong with two year old racing in fact they used to have yearling races with QHs and top horses such as Easy Jet ran as a yearling in December and then made 26 starts before the end of his two year old season winning the All American Futurity along the way.


The problem with racing today is in the genetic makeup of the modern breed.

[fort_falcon]

For my nickel's worth - I've run 2yos with nominal success and also held back seemingly mature 3yos to fully mature and run as 4yos with similar results. Yes, the early maturing types can certainly get out and go young. I recall living in Louisianna when they ran the Jean Lafitte Futurity at DeD in March - it was the biggest purse for the average breeder - owner to realistically chase and a lot of those folks were more QH trainers than anything. It is rare that the early maturing 2yo stays ahead of the entire population long enough to make it to the BC Juvenile, let alone the Derby. Many that mature later (and run longer) are just coming into their own at 3.

The good news is that with the BC money out there, there is NO financial reason to rush a horse to the Classics, especially throwing a filly to the boys. And yes, some like Barbaro will be coming around at just the right time and STILL be subject to breakdown. If the marketplace valued soundness and quality those horses with multiple starts over multiple years (yes maybe even some in claiming ranks) would carry the day.

It is an inexact science at best but the lack of rationality at the highest levels (Green Monkey) does nothing but encourage more of the same among people who have too much money to play with and not enough horse sense to go with it.

jm

You sound like a very sensible trainer!!! The yard I'm an assistant in does not produce juvenile runners, in the 4 years I been working for my boss, we've never had one, and I've started...mmmm....upwards of 15 2 year olds and they've all, bar 1, only had 3 year old careers and in some cases only started first time as 4 year olds, simply because they haven't been ready.
the 1 exception is a filly called She's A Winner who's one 2 of 2 starts and will go for the Grade 1 Alan Robertson at the end of the May...then she'll be put away till next season....but yeah, as I said...she's a big strong filly (who looks more like a 3year old colt)...


Anyways, this tragedy with Eight Belles reminds me of a tragedy that occured a couple years ago involving the favourite of a big race here - the Vodacom Durban July - who broke his back leg shortly after the start of the race....completely eclipsed the winner... very sad though.
News report - Rabiya

[wallinga]

I for one don't think two year old racing is a negative, I really think it is a positive. For my money drugs are the culprit. In the old days trainers gave their horses time to heal from soft tissue and related problems. Today the trainers give the horse a drug or two and enter the horse. Ban all drugs nationwide and the number of breakdowns will decrease. In addition breeding to fast horses that are unsound is a common practice nowadays. Seems everyone wants a fast horse that will give a quick return on their investment.

I think the issue isn't the proliferation of fast usound horses, it's the horses noone know is sound because they raced on drugs. Make them run drug free and the unsound ones wont have careers, therefore won't pass on faulty genes en masse.

[kimberley mine]

The problem with racing today is in the genetic makeup of the modern breed.

I respectfully call bullshit on that one. That is a massive oversimplification and one that ignores all KINDS of things...shoeing (long toe/low heel), track maintenance, conditioning, nutrition, yada yada yada.
I have yet to see a single trustworthy study on modern breakdown rates versus breakdown rates, say, 30 years ago that tests for genetic variation and controls for everything else.

If I had to look for my top breakdown culprits, I would look at fitness and conditioning first, shoeing second, and track maintenance third.

[Sam]

The problem with racing today is in the genetic makeup of the modern breed.

I respectfully call bullshit on that one. That is a massive oversimplification and one that ignores all KINDS of things...shoeing (long toe/low heel), track maintenance, conditioning, nutrition, yada yada yada.
I have yet to see a single trustworthy study on modern breakdown rates versus breakdown rates, say, 30 years ago that tests for genetic variation and controls for everything else.

If I had to look for my top breakdown culprits, I would look at fitness and conditioning first, shoeing second, and track maintenance third.

Yeah that.

I really get tired of this "The breed is unsound" nonsense, especially when people can't even DEFINE 'unsound' -- nevermind Louis' endless thread that blames Phalaris for everything but the common cold.

Steeplechasers come from the EXACT SAME GENE POOL as the Derby horses. In fact, a couple of Derby starters have 'chasers in their immediate family.

All people do when they wave this "unsoundness" flag is shift the blame from the industry's own bad behaviour to where it doesn't belong. I'm not saying there aren't lines prone to early breakdowns, but the BREED as a whole is not unsound (whatever the hell that even means).

When someone can present me with a quantifiable study that shows a dramatic decrease in bone density over the last few decades, then maybe I'll start to agree the breed is unsound.

AND GET OFF THE 2YO RACING. Seriously. Seabiscuit ran his first race as a 2yo in JANUARY. That was the norm, not the exception. The difference is we actually had HORSEMEN who had a clue how to train back then. 2yo racing is the least of the problems. If you want to focus on the damage being done to 2yos, focus on the idiot 2yo-I-T sales. There is NO reason for a 2yo to be running sub 10 second 8ths in MARCH.

15 seconds after I saw EB on the ground (and honestly, I thought it was a heart attack) I turned my cell phone off. I've received emails from friends asking me if it's because I'm upset and don't want to talk about it. My form email answer was "Not in the slightest. It happens. the only thing 'upsetting' me is the stupid, appeal to emotion responses this kind of thing always inspires from people who don't give a damn about the sport 364 days out of the year."

I had a lunch meeting with a bunch of people today -- non-TB racing -- and listened to all of them bemoan the race and how cruel racing in general is. Never mind they come from 'breeds' who STILL practice shit like soring, nerving, and chains to get a 'pretty' but useless horse. Now I'm seeing crap like clips and check reins on Park Arabs. WTF? and they want to come at the TB industry?