Curlin's Value is 20 Million??

[HR LLC]

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48090.htm

Seems rather low to me. I know we are in a recession but...

If Big Brown is worth $50 million, Curlin should be in the same zip code. Say around 40 to 50 million. So that means nobody offered $4 million for the 20% stake in Curlin during the sealed bid process.

[Heidilady]

I just end up getting madder at the losers that screwed over their clients. I mean it's one thing to do that but you make a lot of people get tied up in wrangling over a horse and not getting their money that they deserve. They caused this.

I'm not shocked nobody wanted the 20%. Why would you? It still has this taint about it for the time being, it's just a mess. I'm sure George Bolton is patting himself on the back for getting out and making it Jess' problem. Just a question but doesn't Jess own part of Hurricane Hall? Would Curlin not stand there?

[Strategic Maneuver]

I personally don't think Curlin is as undervalued as BB is overvalued.

[FOS]

hi HR LLC

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48090.htm

Seems rather low to me. I know we are in a recession but...

If Big Brown is worth $50 million, Curlin should be in the same zip code. Say around 40 to 50 million. So that means nobody offered $4 million for the 20% stake in Curlin during the sealed bid process.

Regarding the line bolded above, I ask...who annointed Big Brown as being worth $50mil ? Was it maybe a former ENRON appraiser, or maybe an unnamed former exec from Fannie Mae, or maybe Merrill Lynch or Lehman Brothers, or maybe Martha Stewart, or Barney Frank, or maybe just some unnamed source du jour ?

I might submit that at this moment in time...a strong case could likely be made that Big Brown might, just might, be worth (in cold hard cash U.S. dollars, stacked neatly on the table) somewhere in the range of $12.5mil to $15mil (+-). Bottom line...seems (to me anyway) that to seriously suggest that (all things considered) today Big Brown is "worth $50 million" (your words)...conjurs adjectives such as ridiculous, preposterous, absurd, farcical, laughable.

Respectfully

[brogers]

Just a question but doesn't Jess own part of Hurricane Hall? Would Curlin not stand there?

Jess Jackson owns Stonestreet. There is a farm on Old Frankfort Pike near Darby Dan and another farm, the old Adena Springs farm on Versailles Road. He also owns the old Adena Springs stallion division down the end of Old Frankfort Pike. Curlin could stand there.

[brogers]

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48090.htm

Seems rather low to me. I know we are in a recession but...

http://pedigreeconsultants.com/2008/11/ ... lin-worth/

[FOS]

hi brogers

Nice to see your face in the place .

http://news.bloodhorse.com/article/48090.htm

Seems rather low to me. I know we are in a recession but...

http://pedigreeconsultants.com/2008/11/ ... lin-worth/

Certainly Alan Porter touched upon what he saw fit...fair enough; but he seemed a bit thrifty (to my way of thinking) when it came to commenting about potential downside risks.

For example (for discussion's/speculation's sake)...what if Curlin went thru his first breeding season and the results just met or barely exceeded the minimum criteria that would otherwise define him as infertile (per the language of a supposed Insurance Policy that we're speculating about)...and (as a result) his owner/s (whoever they might be) would not be entitled to collect insurance proceeds related to (in)fertility/libido issues/matters. In such a case isn't it reasonable to suggest that more likely than not Curlin's value would go down...possibly substantially?

Consider this too...what if Curlin's fertility/libido DOES meet or surpass (barely or not) the criteria (as defined in the policy), but his offspring do NOT look the part (if you will), or capture the imagination of buyers...breeders. How do you spell...OUCH?

There are so many 'what ifs', but Alan Porter's article (as a result of his emphasis, as I perceived it anyway) seemed to leave quite an indelible imprint pertaining to the potential millions of dollars of income from upside possibilities...such as significant added income if Curlin shuttles. Fair enough, but (on the flip side) 'what if' Curlin shuttles (as Porter speculates), but the horse comes up with an issue/illness that would disqualify him from reentry into the USA...but he's otherwise fine?

There are many many downside risks...and Alan Porter (in his article) seemed to little more than glance over some of them. Oh well.

Furthermore...in this market/environment, I sense that the competition to pay BIG (if not HUGE) dollars for stallion prospects...regardless their accomplishments and/or overall appeal, is extremely limited.

Seems (to me anyway) that an unsettling (if you will) reality has penetrated the industry (in general), and I get a strong sense that many many mare-owners have turned their caution-meter up a notch or two...and are more wary of the market and state of affairs (in general) than I can recall sensing in many many years. Even many of the brightest/wealthiest (including Sheik M) who own/manage/stand stallions, seem to recognize that many (if not most) mare owners are now (possibly moreso than ever before) looking for what they perceive as not just good, but better than good value...and those mare owners/breeders might be cautious like never before.

There's a general consensus (don't ya think) or recognition (if you will) that supply far outweighs demand, the state of the economy is unsettling...and that caution might be the current wisdom (for obvious reasons). For those who don't adjust appropriately (and even some who do)...2009 might be a very rude awakening. Maybe not a doomsday scenario; but, at the very least, a sobering reality (if you will)..

As for Porter's comment re insurance, he wrote "Now, if you are Darley you don’t pay this..." With that in mind I ask...didn't Sheik M have Dubai Millenium insured for (if I recall correctly) 30,000,000 Pounds? Hmmm.

For what it's worth...I see Curlin as a genuine TOP class real-deal Horse of the Year, who (even in this potentially extremely challenging market/environment) is not only a wonderful stallion prospect, but potentially (if he stood up to my scrutiny of him, physically) good (maybe very good) value at $20mil.

As for Big Brown...he leaves me cold (if not frozen) for a number of reasons...not the least of which is his announced $65k stud fee for 2009.

Thoughts?

Best.

Respectfully

[Tappiano]

Well, if Run Away and Hide covers 100 mares at his stud fee he's made the farm 9 million dollars so does that mean he's worth half what Curlin is?

[Stevie Belmont]

It's a joke...

The horse is worth at the very least 50 Million

[brogers]

Certainly Alan Porter touched upon what he saw fit...fair enough; but he seemed a bit thrifty (to my way of thinking) when it came to commenting about potential downside risks.

For example (for discussion's/speculation's sake)...what if Curlin went thru his first breeding season and the results just met or barely exceeded the minimum criteria that would otherwise define him as infertile (per the language of a supposed Insurance Policy that we're speculating about)...and (as a result) his owner/s (whoever they might be) would not be entitled to collect insurance proceeds related to (in)fertility/libido issues/matters. In such a case isn't it reasonable to suggest that more likely than not Curlin's value would go down...possibly substantially?

No doubt he could be the next War Emblem for all we know, but that isn't something that you can manage risk against unfortunately. Equally, what happens if he is super fertile? Instead of getting 80% live foals as Alan suggested (which is a reasonable assumption) he gets 90%?

There are so many 'what ifs', but Alan Porter's article (as a result of his emphasis, as I perceived it anyway) seemed to leave quite an indelible imprint pertaining to the potential millions of dollars of income from upside possibilities...such as significant added income if Curlin shuttles. Fair enough, but (on the flip side) 'what if' Curlin shuttles (as Porter speculates), but the horse comes up with an issue/illness that would disqualify him from reentry into the USA...but he's otherwise fine?

There is an insurance policy called "frustration of importation" that you can cover a stallion under for this occurence. It is about 3% of value I believe.

Furthermore...in this market/environment, I sense that the competition to pay BIG (if not HUGE) dollars for stallion prospects...regardless their accomplishments and/or overall appeal, is extremely limited.

I think that the market for the truly expensive stallion prospect has always been small. I don't think that this has changed much even with recent events.

Seems (to me anyway) that an unsettling (if you will) reality has penetrated the industry (in general), and I get a strong sense that many many mare-owners have turned their caution-meter up a notch or two...and are more wary of the market and state of affairs (in general) than I can recall sensing in many many years. Even many of the brightest/wealthiest (including Sheik M) who own/manage/stand stallions, seem to recognize that many (if not most) mare owners are now (possibly moreso than ever before) looking for what they perceive as not just good, but better than good value...and those mare owners/breeders might be cautious like never before.

There's a general consensus (don't ya think) or recognition (if you will) that supply far outweighs demand, the state of the economy is unsettling...and that caution might be the current wisdom (for obvious reasons). For those who don't adjust appropriately (and even some who do)...2009 might be a very rude awakening. Maybe not a doomsday scenario; but, at the very least, a sobering reality (if you will)..

Is that not a reflection of his suggested retiring service fee of $75,000? Are you telling us that if Curlin had done what he had done and retired a couple of years ago that he would have stood at $75,000? I'm thinking of Ghostzapper, Bernardini, Empire Maker, Smarty Jones, Mineshaft, etc....

As for Porter's comment re insurance, he wrote "Now, if you are Darley you don’t pay this..." With that in mind I ask...didn't Sheik M have Dubai Millenium insured for (if I recall correctly) 30,000,000 Pounds? Hmmm.

Yes there was an insurance policy on Dubai Millennium. I believe that this was a one off case as the underwriter gave them a great rate. Unsurprisingly he got killed on the deal!. As far as I am aware Darley do not insure any of their stallions so I dont think what was written in the post was out of line.

For what it's worth...I see Curlin as a genuine TOP class real-deal Horse of the Year, who (even in this potentially extremely challenging market/environment) is not only a wonderful stallion prospect, but potentially (if he stood up to my scrutiny of him, physically) good (maybe very good) value at $20mil.

I guess, subject to physical, there is agreement what he looks value at $20m then.

[brogers]

Well, if Run Away and Hide covers 100 mares at his stud fee he's made the farm 9 million dollars so does that mean he's worth half what Curlin is?

Run Away and Hide is standing for $7,500. If he got 100 paid seasons he would generate $750,000....a long way from $9m.

[FOS]

hi brogers

Nice to hear from you.

Hope all's well downunder.

Best.

Respectfully

[Dave C]

It's a joke...

The horse is worth at the very least 50 Million

Please explain the math to get to 50M. By my estimates a $50M price would require a 6 figure stud fee with 100 plus mares. I just don't think that is likely in this market.

[reese]

Curlin was a nice horse, but I don't think he beat any good racers in 2008. He raced on steroids in 2007. To my "unexpert" opinion, Curlin's female family is weak.

20M value seems about right--- Curlin's expected stud fee x mares bred x years.

[casper10]

Curlin should be worth more than $20 million when compared to Vineyard Haven's $12 million. Granted the $12 million is inflated due to Godolphin's goal of winning the Derby. With his breeding, his worth of as a stallion is minimal compared to Curlin. The 2 big negatives to Curlin would be his average female family and his lack of early speed.