I seriously think Rachael Alexanderia can win the derby

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 3:36 pm

am I crazy?

Heidilady · Postby **Heidilady** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 3:41 pm

I've tried variations of the spelling and I can't find her on the site. I do remember hearing someone else say something like you did so clearly, the crazy is catching. :wink:

ETA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTQ6nV_4JCA
Ah ha! I remember her. Here she is in the Golden Rod. Her name is spelled Rachel Alexandra. I do enjoy watching this one I must say.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 3:53 pm

I made a top 10 derby list back in janurary and she was 3rd on my list. she is 2nd now behind imperial council and could be number 1 tomorrow. she is freakishly frighting good. And this is not the best year for 3YO colts. I think 2 of the top 4 are fillies and would nto be shocked ot have both of the fillies in the derby this year. this is the year to do it.

Heidilady · Postby **Heidilady** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:16 pm

bdw0617 wrote:I made a top 10 derby list back in janurary and she was 3rd on my list. she is 2nd now behind imperial council and could be number 1 tomorrow. she is freakishly frighting good. And this is not the best year for 3YO colts. I think 2 of the top 4 are fillies and would nto be shocked ot have both of the fillies in the derby this year. this is the year to do it.

Frankel's trying his darndest to keep Stardom Bound out, I think because he's just being really conservative with her. Fortunately (if you think you want her to run in the Derby) she's going back to Dutrow in a bit. He and Bobby help each other out sometimes.

RA is pretty striking the more you look at her. I do remember thinking there might be more than one filly in the Derby this year and it was probably when you brought her up the first time. I know I watched the Golden Rod in 2008 so I'm trying to remember where I first heard about her.

Danzig · Postby **Danzig** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 4:44 pm

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bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 5:00 pm

Danzig · Postby **Danzig** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 5:03 pm

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bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 5:40 pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DvLvInS ... 1&index=42

Danzig · Postby **Danzig** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 6:00 pm

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Heidilady · Postby **Heidilady** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 7:54 pm

What about Evita Argentina? She won the San Vicente against boys but Gomez said she's a late running sprinter. Would they try her long against the boys? Rachel'd be filly #3 if they all go and I'm not sure then that the odds would be strong since it's unusual to have 1 in. Evita's a pretty nice one but how's she for distance?

Busanda · Postby **Busanda** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:13 pm

I think Evita is exactly where she needs to be, going a mile or less.

And to be honest, Rachel Alexandra is a very talented filly but there's nothing about her pedigree that screams 10f. Her sire was capable at 10f but was beatable, more so than at 9f. And her broodmare sire, Roar, is more of a speed, middle distance influence.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 8:59 pm

ah my friend. one of the things I have been doing on my month or so hiatius is learning how about dosage profile

3-2-7-2-0

Rachael's suggest that she will thrive at middle to longer distances, and should have tacitical speed. I dont' think the classic distance will be a problem

since 83, about 1 out of 5 of all classic winners have the dominant classic profile like RA has in which the classic profiel is more than the brilliant and intermeiate combined.

Street Sense had it. Big Brown Had it. Barbaro missed it by 1 point.

In fact out of all the derby contenders, RA and Quality Road have the only two profiles that match the trend. out of all the ones that actually have a chance in hell, I didn't botgher to do every 3YO or antyhing.

Busanda · Postby **Busanda** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:25 pm

Dosage was proven useless a long time ago. It's a constant evolving system that is "corrected" every time there's a horse that proves it wrong.

You'll be hard pressed to find anyone who uses dosage without a very big grain of salt.

And as an aside, if you're going to really focus on her dosage numbers, she's geared toward 8-9f, not 10f, which is pretty much what I stated in my opinionated analysis.

Medaglia was not a true 10f horse, in fact, was most susceptible at 10f. While I expect him to get some horses who will relish the classic distance, they're going to need some help from the bottom. She doesn't really get it. She'll be a good Oaks filly though. That distance will suit her.

Busanda · Postby **Busanda** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:32 pm

One more funny observation about dosage- I have a mare who's got a DI of 0.33 and DP of 0-1-7-4-6.

By those numbers you'd swear she wants 2 miles over hurdles. In reality, she wants a mile. Anything more and she's flat. In fact, she's way more competitive at 7f than she is at 9f.

Numbers can't tell you what influences are coming through.

bdw0617 · Postby **bdw0617** » Fri Mar 06, 2009 10:10 pm

Busanda wrote:One more funny observation about dosage- I have a mare who's got a DI of 0.33 and DP of 0-1-7-4-6.

By those numbers you'd swear she wants 2 miles over hurdles. In reality, she wants a mile. Anything more and she's flat. In fact, she's way more competitive at 7f than she is at 9f.

Numbers can't tell you what influences are coming through.

actually that's contigent with a miler. I'm pretty sure she's a closer