The Blue Grass S and Arkansas Derby

[oliverstoned]

I can't remember a harder Ky Derby to handicap. Mufaaz the win and in from England did nothing as expected and hopefully won't run in the Derby. Papa Clem looks good, gotta like a Smart Strike who likes dirt (dry) right? I saw the the Tampa Bay Derby and didn't think it was a very strong field but Musket Man took the Ill Derby and now General Quarters (the $20,000 claim!) takes the Blue Grass.

[Exterminator]

I wouldn't say yet that Papa Clem can't run as well on a sloppy/muddy track. When he ran in the Louisiana Derby he'd never run on dirt before and he shipped in 2 days before the race. He didn't even get a single workout over a dirt track before that race.
General Quarters really showed his versatility in winning the Bluegrass today. I also didn't think the Tampa Bay Derby was that strong this year but now with GQ and Musket Man going on to win major preps those 2 have both moved to the top 5 or 6 on my list.

[Bid]

I'll selfishly wish that Mafaaz would have gotten a start from the gate going counterclockwise prior to yesterday. He broke into the air. General Quarters looked the best in the post parade from what I could see on the feed I had. I still like the "win & you're in" for one or two spots to encourage different pedigrees and bring money in.
This is shaping up to be a Derby where you can cash a nice ticket if you pick it right. Are we confident that these prep races have been steroid free? If so, I think we'll get our triple crown winner in the next couple of years. Pedigree, training and feed programs will matter again and you're bound to find a dominant horse. It seems like a lot of "cheap" purchases and claims are running in the big ones this year.
The horse that I can't figure is Dunkirk. It seems the media wants him to win for some reason and I'm just not that impressed. They seem to dismiss what the other horses have done and act as though he'll show up if he can just get into the Derby. I don't get it. Quality Road ate him up. I know it was a fast track, but they were both on it at the same time. Good horses win regardless.
Baffert's horse doesn't win with flash, but he wins. I liked what I Want Revenge did, but I wonder if that was too big an effort to come back from.

[oliverstoned]

Looks like 6 starts was just too much for the Unbridled Song Old Fashioned, off Derby trail with a slab fracture, get well soon. Hope Dunkirk can be the abberation and have a real career.

[Mahubah]

I give Old Fashioned marks for courage, though. He ran a game race even without considering the injury. Hope they bring him back instead of just rushing him off to stud.

I like Quality Road for the Derby. Game, mentally mature, talented, and in the hands of a fine horseman. He may not have peaked yet, either.

[geowarrior]

I think it's between Friesian Fire and Quality Road with Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back as longer shot/exotic prospects.

[Tiz]

ostoned, do you train racehorses?

[oliverstoned]

uhhh....no...

[Hotwalker]

The way Quality Road repelled Dunkirk I thought was really impressive. The Florida Derby has the been the right springboard recently. With the jock/trainer connections and pedigree, I like him a lot.

[freshman]

Anybody like the race Summer Bird ran in the AK Derby?

[Pete]

Hi Folks,

I hope that you all are well.

I liked what I Want Revenge did, but I wonder if that was too big an effort to come back from.

I'm a little puzzled that you are the only person that made even a mention of I Want Revenge who (in my opinion) towers above any other horse that will run in the Derby. I don't subscribe to the notion of a 'bounce'. If a horse doesn't perform as well as he did previously there's usually a reason.

I Want Revenge finished the Wood Memorial S (last 5f) in a startling :59.4, despite being blocked. Compare his split times to the Excelsior H (G3) that was run the race before the Wood. His finishing times are far beyond the capability that any other horse has displayed to this point. I was at the Gotham and as reported, I Want Revenge wasn't breathing hard after the race despite a last 5f in 1:00. That is amazing.

The Derby is all about bottom and this horse has it. He has tactical speed and now has proven that he can come from behind and deal with traffic and adversity. I can't say if the surface is all the difference in I Want Revenge's recent success or if he is also reaching his potential at the right time (ala Funny Cide). It's not likely that any other horse will improve so dramatically when they try dirt.

Last week I spoke with someone connected to Fresian Fire who clearly feared I Want Revenge and they asked how he could be beaten. "Other than firearms you might throw bricks" I offered. "Won't be enough" was their reply.

I don't think much of Jeff Mullins but he has a fabulous horse that I believe will win the Roses by daylight. If no other horse is maturing at the right time and I Want Revenge stays healthy and hale he is good enough to make history.

Regards,

Pete

[Mahubah]

I Want Revenge has indeed been impressive; question to my mind is whether he still has more to give or a sizable bounce is just around the corner. If the former, I agree with Pete; he's hard to look past. If the latter, he'll take a lot of short-priced money down with him.

[zinn21]

Pete wrote:

I'm a little puzzled that you are the only person that made even a mention of I Want Revenge who (in my opinion) towers above any other horse that will run in the Derby.

Actually there was a thread started by me 4-4-09 titled "I want Revenge" with a number of supporters of said horse.

[UmmYeah]

I give Old Fashioned marks for courage, though. He ran a game race even without considering the injury. Hope they bring him back instead of just rushing him off to stud.

No such luck. He's been retired.

[freshman]

Anybody like the race Summer Bird ran in the AK Derby?

Oh, the wrong Bird!