I went out of my way to handicap this race beucase I have a feeling, going off my classic anaylsis there are going to be some very sour faces once the winner crosses the wire.
Bullsbay
Choclate Candy
Cowboy Cal
Crown of Thorns
Mastercaftsman
Midshipman
Pyro
Sweet Hearth
mr sidney
Bullsbay is a horse who I think has been running too far. also, if there was eVER a horse whose pedigree screams "put me on the freaking pro ride already!" it's this one. i've never seen a tiznow not love the stuff.
he's a grade 1 handicap winner going 10F but was usually overmatched. I think the shortern up to a mile and the switch to pro ride will shock some people. Mabye to the winners circle, maybe not, but hes' going to be on my ticket.
If they go to this race. It hinkt his is the race they should be in not the classic. I also feel the same for quality road but i dont' think they will wake up and smell the coffee. if quality road is in this race, he jumps to the top of my list
choclate candy has no shot.
Cowboy Cal is interesting. He's one fo the very few horses who is just as good on turf as he is pro ride and I mean JuST as good. he's extremely game, he will be on the lead and he's tough as nails to run down and heck he was touch for einstein to run down in the 10F woodford reserve. hes' a nighmare to try to get past at 8F. He's going to be in the race, either one he wants to go in.
Crown of thorwns is a horse not many people know but on pure talent he belongs in this race. he was on the derby trail earlier this year and got injured but in janurary he was hands down the most talanted socal horse out there. maybe that was last yaer. lol. by repent iI do know that becuase i remember the play on the sire name. in his first race back hew a a very game 2nd to a hors who I think can very well win the sprint, Gayego. I just dont' know if a mile is his best distance. I think he's better shorter. he's never won a race past 7F. his sire is a miler. his dam sire sires a buch of sprinters. I don't feel comfortable putting him on the top but he is talented.
I'm throwing mastercraftsman out for the same reason i'm throwing rip van winkle out. they are not raven's pass or henrythenavigator pedigree wise
something else you have to keep in mind, coolmore takes shots and will always takes shots beucase they want to increase stud value. not necessary becuase they think the horse actually will win the race. every once in a while they will get what they are looking at.
when the pedigrees match up (giant's causeway being by storm cat, or henrythenavigator being by kingmambo) they can reek havoc. but in most cases (george washington..twice... amoung countless others) they are non factors.
in the case of mastercraftsman, his dam sire was a damn good dirt horse, but so was george washingtons. I dont' think that's enough to overcome a sire whoose progeny absoluty dispises anything but firm turf (Danehill dancer)
if he outclasses the rest of the field i will tip my hat, but he's not bettable to me
midshipman is the odd ball to me- he won the juvenille here last year but hasnt' done anything since. and i was not impressed witrh the workout i saw on hrtv either and this is a little stiffer comptition than he faced last year
pyro is an auto toss, has no business in this race (which he wins by 10 lol) - hates polytrack. he proved it in the blue grass last year, he proved it again in the mile last year.
mr sidney is a grade 1 turf winner at a mile, but isn't good enough to beat goldikova and he's by storm cat which suggests he should take to this... but i just don't see it happening.
Win - Bullsbay / Cowboy Cal
Place - Bullsbay / Cowboy Cal / Crown of throns
Show - Bullsbay / Cowboy Cal / Crown of thorns / mastecraftsman
Breeders cup "dirt" mile analysis
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bdw0617
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Breeders cup "dirt" mile analysis
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Worksoplad
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"in the case of mastercraftsman, his dam sire was a damn good dirt horse, but so was george washingtons. I dont' think that's enough to overcome a sire whoose progeny absoluty dispises anything but firm turf (Danehill dancer) "
You seem to be overlooking his last race, clearly designed by A O'Brian as a prep race for the BC, when he cruised home by 5 lengths in a 1 1/4 mile G-3 race on the Polytrack at Dundalk, Ireland
As to RVW, See Steve Haskin's column in the BH today. Ignore RVW in the BC Classic at your peril.
You seem to be overlooking his last race, clearly designed by A O'Brian as a prep race for the BC, when he cruised home by 5 lengths in a 1 1/4 mile G-3 race on the Polytrack at Dundalk, Ireland
As to RVW, See Steve Haskin's column in the BH today. Ignore RVW in the BC Classic at your peril.
"Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature, but he who destroys a good book kills reason itself." John Milton.
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bdw0617
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outclassing allowence level horses is different than winning a world class grade 1 race.
if I put rachael alexandra in a grade 3 turf race for fillies I have no doubt in my mind she'd win. she's jsut BETTER than the other horses.
but just becuas she won that race, doesn't mean she belongs in the filly and mare turf. which is basically wha tyou are saying about mastercraftsman.
in fact i always thought raven's pass was one of the biggest headscratchers, at least to me, in a while. not even him but his dam. i distincly remember his dam running, and she was a turf horse and there was nothing in her pedigree to suggest she should be a turf horse lol. she was by a classic dirt horse, out of a mare by a sire that was on the derby trail. and pops out a mare that thrived on the turf.
than you bred her to elusive quality... I'm not so much shocked that raven's pass took to the synethics as much as I am suprised that he trived on turf the way he did in the first place. elusive quality will never be the next saddlers wells as a turf sire, his best are dirt horses and always will be dirt horses. it made PERFECT sense to run him in the classic last year.
you can even look in the handicapping section where i posted my picks last year. i said it was a 2 horse race between ravens pass and curlin, and I gave the nod to curlin. it made perfect sense to run him on there beucase hell that's where he should have been all along.
horses who come over here and win on our main surface are usually horses whoose s uccess overseasd are somewhat of an anamonoy in the first place. While Giant's cuaseway is out of a rahy mare and while storm cat is a decent turf sire.. that is not a world class turf pedigree, yet giant's causeway was a world class turf horse, but his pedigree suggested he should love dirt, and he did.
johannesburg is by freaking hennessy, a burned out derby trail horse, his dam sire was a good 3YO dirt horse and his female line is full of good, dirt horses, and you want to tell me he's a world class turf horse as a 2YO? again, storm cat is a decent turf sire but nothing tos ay that he can produce a horse that can win grade 1's in england and ireland as a 2YO. he should have been on dirt all along with that pedigree. again like ravens pass and giants causeway it was more of an anamoly that they took to turf the way they did in the first place.
hell even Arazi.. while granted he does have a turf pedigree, is it really that much of a stretch to think that when your dad sired rahy (sire of dreaming of anna and serenas song), runaway groom (sire of cherokee run) and candy stripes (sire of invasor) and your damsire won the kentucky derby, that you might somewhat take to dirt?
It's not so much about class, RVW and mastercraftsman are very, very talanted horses. but for them to win they would be bucking major trends IMHO.
if I put rachael alexandra in a grade 3 turf race for fillies I have no doubt in my mind she'd win. she's jsut BETTER than the other horses.
but just becuas she won that race, doesn't mean she belongs in the filly and mare turf. which is basically wha tyou are saying about mastercraftsman.
in fact i always thought raven's pass was one of the biggest headscratchers, at least to me, in a while. not even him but his dam. i distincly remember his dam running, and she was a turf horse and there was nothing in her pedigree to suggest she should be a turf horse lol. she was by a classic dirt horse, out of a mare by a sire that was on the derby trail. and pops out a mare that thrived on the turf.
than you bred her to elusive quality... I'm not so much shocked that raven's pass took to the synethics as much as I am suprised that he trived on turf the way he did in the first place. elusive quality will never be the next saddlers wells as a turf sire, his best are dirt horses and always will be dirt horses. it made PERFECT sense to run him in the classic last year.
you can even look in the handicapping section where i posted my picks last year. i said it was a 2 horse race between ravens pass and curlin, and I gave the nod to curlin. it made perfect sense to run him on there beucase hell that's where he should have been all along.
horses who come over here and win on our main surface are usually horses whoose s uccess overseasd are somewhat of an anamonoy in the first place. While Giant's cuaseway is out of a rahy mare and while storm cat is a decent turf sire.. that is not a world class turf pedigree, yet giant's causeway was a world class turf horse, but his pedigree suggested he should love dirt, and he did.
johannesburg is by freaking hennessy, a burned out derby trail horse, his dam sire was a good 3YO dirt horse and his female line is full of good, dirt horses, and you want to tell me he's a world class turf horse as a 2YO? again, storm cat is a decent turf sire but nothing tos ay that he can produce a horse that can win grade 1's in england and ireland as a 2YO. he should have been on dirt all along with that pedigree. again like ravens pass and giants causeway it was more of an anamoly that they took to turf the way they did in the first place.
hell even Arazi.. while granted he does have a turf pedigree, is it really that much of a stretch to think that when your dad sired rahy (sire of dreaming of anna and serenas song), runaway groom (sire of cherokee run) and candy stripes (sire of invasor) and your damsire won the kentucky derby, that you might somewhat take to dirt?
It's not so much about class, RVW and mastercraftsman are very, very talanted horses. but for them to win they would be bucking major trends IMHO.
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Worksoplad
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I am not really following your logic. The sole reason I referred to the Dundalk polytrack race was to show that Mastercraftsman handles a synthetic track and handles it well.
Mastercraftsman proved his undoubted CLASS by winning the Irish 2000 Guineas (G-1) at a mile, and the Ascot St. James Palace Stakes (G-1) at a mile, beating Delegator, and by finishing 2nd to STS in the Juddmonte Interanational (G-1, 1 2 1/2f). 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes (G-1, 1 2f) to STS and Fame and Glory, and 5th to STS in the Epsom Derby (G-1, 1m 4f) all three of which races were way beyond this horse's best distance on his breeding.
On top of that, as a two year old he won the Phoenix Stakes (G-1, 6f) and National Stakes (G-1, 7f).
It seems to me that Mastercraftsman has proved he can win a "world class" G-1 race FOUR times already. What, pray makes you think Bullsbay, Crown of Thorns and Cowboy Cal have the same credentials?
Mastercraftsman proved his undoubted CLASS by winning the Irish 2000 Guineas (G-1) at a mile, and the Ascot St. James Palace Stakes (G-1) at a mile, beating Delegator, and by finishing 2nd to STS in the Juddmonte Interanational (G-1, 1 2 1/2f). 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes (G-1, 1 2f) to STS and Fame and Glory, and 5th to STS in the Epsom Derby (G-1, 1m 4f) all three of which races were way beyond this horse's best distance on his breeding.
On top of that, as a two year old he won the Phoenix Stakes (G-1, 6f) and National Stakes (G-1, 7f).
It seems to me that Mastercraftsman has proved he can win a "world class" G-1 race FOUR times already. What, pray makes you think Bullsbay, Crown of Thorns and Cowboy Cal have the same credentials?
"Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature, but he who destroys a good book kills reason itself." John Milton.
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Worksoplad
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Entry Blank wrote:Crown of Thorns won the Bob Lewis at 2 in his third start , it was a two turn race going a mile and a 1/16 .
With all due respect, the Bob Lewis is hardly a "world class" race, to use bdw's turn of phrase.
"Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature, but he who destroys a good book kills reason itself." John Milton.
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Entry Blank
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Worksoplad wrote:Entry Blank wrote:Crown of Thorns won the Bob Lewis at 2 in his third start , it was a two turn race going a mile and a 1/16 .
With all due respect, the Bob Lewis is hardly a "world class" race, to use bdw's turn of phrase.
I never said it was ..... a poster above(bdw) stated that Crown of Thorns had never won going a mile and I was just saying that he did.
Worksoplad wrote:I am not really following your logic. The sole reason I referred to the Dundalk polytrack race was to show that Mastercraftsman handles a synthetic track and handles it well.
Poor race beat nothing.
Mastercraftsman proved his undoubted CLASS by winning the Irish 2000 Guineas (G-1) at a mile, Poor race beat nothing.
and the Ascot St. James Palace Stakes (G-1) at a mile, beating Delegator, What has Delegator done since?
and by finishing 2nd to STS in the Juddmonte Interanational (G-1, 1 2 1/2f). 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes (G-1, 1 2f) to STS and Fame and Glory, and 5th to STS in the Epsom Derby (G-1, 1m 4f) all three of which races were way beyond this horse's best distance on his breeding.
On top of that, as a two year old he won the Phoenix Stakes (G-1, 6f) and National Stakes (G-1, 7f).
Give me a break, Alfred Noble won the Phoenix this year, its the Ballydoyle freebee G1 in Ireland, nobody runs horses against them in that race
It seems to me that Mastercraftsman has proved he can win a "world class" G-1 race FOUR times already. By beating who? the only good horse he faced beat him twice, and your excuse not his best trip?
What, pray makes you think Bullsbay, Crown of Thorns and Cowboy Cal have the same credentials?
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Worksoplad
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dublino wrote:Worksoplad wrote:I am not really following your logic. The sole reason I referred to the Dundalk polytrack race was to show that Mastercraftsman handles a synthetic track and handles it well.
Poor race beat nothing.
Mastercraftsman proved his undoubted CLASS by winning the Irish 2000 Guineas (G-1) at a mile, Poor race beat nothing.
and the Ascot St. James Palace Stakes (G-1) at a mile, beating Delegator, What has Delegator done since?
and by finishing 2nd to STS in the Juddmonte Interanational (G-1, 1 2 1/2f). 3rd in the Irish Champion Stakes (G-1, 1 2f) to STS and Fame and Glory, and 5th to STS in the Epsom Derby (G-1, 1m 4f) all three of which races were way beyond this horse's best distance on his breeding.
On top of that, as a two year old he won the Phoenix Stakes (G-1, 6f) and National Stakes (G-1, 7f).
Give me a break, Alfred Noble won the Phoenix this year, its the Ballydoyle freebee G1 in Ireland, nobody runs horses against them in that race
It seems to me that Mastercraftsman has proved he can win a "world class" G-1 race FOUR times already. By beating who? the only good horse he faced beat him twice, and your excuse not his best trip?
What, pray makes you think Bullsbay, Crown of Thorns and Cowboy Cal have the same credentials?
OK. Tell me what stellar horses Midshipman beat/got beat by?
"Who kills a man kills a reasonable creature, but he who destroys a good book kills reason itself." John Milton.
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geowarrior
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oliverstoned
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geowarrior
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No no, Oliver, I'm going to win the Darby Dan contest. Don't have a mare but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. 
Bdw, you have eleven more races to analyse for me and Oliver, but you can pm me your best tips so I get the jump on the Darby Dan contest.
Oliver, if you won the contest, which stallion would you pick?
Bdw, you have eleven more races to analyse for me and Oliver, but you can pm me your best tips so I get the jump on the Darby Dan contest.
Oliver, if you won the contest, which stallion would you pick?
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oliverstoned
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geowarrior wrote:No no, Oliver, I'm going to win the Darby Dan contest. Don't have a mare but I'll cross that bridge when I come to it.
Bdw, you have eleven more races to analyse for me and Oliver, but you can pm me your best tips so I get the jump on the Darby Dan contest.
Oliver, if you won the contest, which stallion would you pick?
Thats the funny thing , not real crazy about any of them. If I took my mare out of the picture and just looked at the stallions I wouldn't mind finishing 3rd or 4th in the contest and taking Nobizlikeshobiz. I'd look a little closer at Perfect Soul and Sun King. How come they left the old geezer Repriced out of the mix, maybe they're afraid someone would pick him first?
Worksoplad wrote:OK. Tell me what stellar horses Midshipman beat/got beat by?
Midshipman beat the following G1 winners
Square Eddie
Street Hero
Terrain
Pioneer of the Nile
Bushranger
Mine that Bird - Classic winner (Kentucky Derby)
G2 winners
Munnings
Azul Leon
Regal Ransom
G3 winners
West Side Bernie
Silent Valor