my derby top 10 list

[bdw0617]

every horse that will be in the derby probably has raced by now. with that said...

10. Winslow Homer – another fox hill farms horse by unbridled song. This is starting to become the standard. I question the quality of field he beat but he beat them like a good horse on the up and up should.
9. Buddy’s Saint – I’m just not that high on this horse. Visually impressive but slow (so far). Has a lot to prove to me. Could defiantly
8. Take Turns – son of seeking the gold, who has a very bright future.

7.Walking the Beach- broke maiden at Churchill, will relish longer distances.
6. Lookin at Lucky – has to show me he can carry his form to dirt
5. Super Saver – he’s “proven” he is a top class horse, he has the pedigree to relish the longer distances and should get nothing but better.
4. American lion – another one that has to show me he can carry his form to dirt. Reminds me a lot of empire maker for some reason. Lazy/goofy type horse that I don’t’ think for some reason we will ever see his true best
3. Carrington Village- The most impressive race I saw at the entire chuchill meet. Horses dont’ make up ground like this one did and draw off in the stretch.
2. CONVEYANCE – this one looks like he can be the real thing. I think baffert thinks so to, he’s taking it easy with this one, not rushing anything, building a foundation with him. The way this horse fought fractions in his allowance race and then said “okay I’m tired of playing with you, bye” is jaw dropping. I don’t see a son of indian Charlie out of a holy bull mare having a problem with dirt.
1. Nordic Truce - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihs5UoBxoEo

Not too many times a grass horse at calder makes a derby top 10 list. It’s not how much he wins by or the time that gets me, but he is the most athletic horse I’ve seen since afleet alex. Just has a way of moving you can tell he’s an athlete. Will get better as they go father.

[UmmYeah]

I like that Afleet Alex colt that broke his maiden at Aqueduct last weekend. I think his name is Afleet Express.

[bdw0617]

he was on my honorable mention list.

this is a solid group of 2YO's this year.

also lunch and relaunch, pisitelli, dryfly are horses I would look at hard.

[oliverstoned]

#1 is a one grass start in November at Calder by Yes its True? Jeez I don't know bdw but you should put some $ on the winterbook if you feel that way. Buddy's Saint is better than #9 I think.

[bdw0617]

#1 is a one grass start in November at Calder by Yes its True? Jeez I don't know bdw but you should put some $ on the winterbook if you feel that way. Buddy's Saint is better than #9 I think.

i put money ont he top 2 on my list already.

the turf doesn't concern me consiering who the trainer is. he would run holy bull on the turf if he had him.

[bdw0617]

um.. yeah.. after watching the third race at hollywood park today.. um.. yeah.. we are going to move some stuff around. she has to be on that list regardless if she's pointed tot he derby or not. my gosh.

i'll take winslow homer off the list and bump her to 10th, higher if I knew sh was going to run.

[ASB]

Walking the Beach is interesting. I have high hopes for him. I have a mare who I claimed that is from his immediate family. It's also the immediate family of Piscitelli.

If we're going straight up Derby not the preps then Super Saver is the top of my list. But I do believe Nordic Truce is the most talented I've seen so far and he's a close second on my list. He was just amazing.

I don't think Conveyance's problem is going to be surface as much as it will be distance. He'll be very effective up to 9f though.

Carrington Village and Nordic Truce may also have some distance limitations, but if Nordic Truce favors his female side, he should be able to get the distance.


1-- Super Saver: Gorgeous pedigree. Can he rate though? Proven class.
2-- Nordic Truce: Unproven class but was most impressive maiden winner
I've seen. But it came on turf.
3-- Aikenite: True dirt colt. Same sire as Nordic Truce. Distance a big
question mark.
4-- Piscitelli: Shocked to see him set the pace in the BCJ. Should enjoy 9f
and more when rated. Consistent. Selfish reasons to love.
5-- Eskendereya: Consistent colt who seems to have some real talent. Will
love going long.
6-- Discreetly Mine: I think this is an improving colt. He could be anything.
7-- Aspire: Consistent colt but feel he has distance limitations. Beautiful
pedigree though.
8-- Worldly: Consistently classy colt. Great Classics pedigree. Good
connections. Could be anything.
9-- Citrus Kid: If this one is improving, he could be dangerous. Distance
will be no problem.
10-- Shotgun Gulch: If this horse can carry his form to a top track, he'll
be very dangerous. So far has been consistent.

As I said before, I like Walking the Beach. I'd also add Court Mischief, Soaring Empire, Lost Aptitude, and Worth A Buck as colts with some possible talents.

Obviously I left off some deserving favorites going into the new year, but I always do that.

Now the following fillies I like a lot. They are my Oaks fillies until someone puts them on the Derby trail, and most of them would rank pretty highly on my list.

1-- Quiet Temper: One can dream. =) But she really was impressive last
out, although against suspect.
2-- Sheer Beauty: Broke maiden impressively on dirt at CD and then won
a turf stakes real impressively in her last. Love her.
3-- Protesting: Whenever a Phipps-bred is a good juvie you have to pay
attention, especially from this family.
4-- Golden Galleon: Can another Medaglia be a big time filly? She's out of
a very talented mare. Won't go as long as the other
girls on my list though.

[bdw0617]

Walking the Beach is interesting. I have high hopes for him. I have a mare who I claimed that is from his immediate family. It's also the immediate family of Piscitelli.

If we're going straight up Derby not the preps then Super Saver is the top of my list. But I do believe Nordic Truce is the most talented I've seen so far and he's a close second on my list. He was just amazing. He was the reason I created the Impressive Maidens thread.

I don't think Conveyance's problem is going to be surface as much as it will be distance. He'll be very effective up to 9f though.

Carrington Village and Nordic Truce may also have some distance limitations, but if Nordic Truce favors his female side, he should be able to get the distance.


1-- Super Saver: Gorgeous pedigree. Can he rate though? Proven class.
2-- Nordic Truce: Unproven class but was most impressive maiden winner
I've seen. But it came on turf.
3-- Aikenite: True dirt colt. Same sire as Nordic Truce. Distance a big
question mark.
4-- Piscitelli: Shocked to see him set the pace in the BCJ. Should enjoy 9f
and more when rated. Consistent. Selfish reasons to love.
5-- Eskendereya: Consistent colt who seems to have some real talent. Will
love going long.
6-- Discreetly Mine: I think this is an improving colt. He could be anything.
7-- Aspire: Consistent colt but feel he has distance limitations. Beautiful
pedigree though.
8-- Worldly: Consistently classy colt. Great Classics pedigree. Good
connections. Could be anything.
9-- Citrus Kid: If this one is improving, he could be dangerous. Distance
will be no problem.
10-- Shotgun Gulch: If this horse can carry his form to a top track, he'll
be very dangerous. So far has been consistent.

As I said before, I like Walking the Beach. I'd also add Court Mischief, Soaring Empire, Lost Aptitude, and Worth A Buck as colts with some possible talents.

Obviously I left off some deserving favorites going into the new year, but I always do that.

Now the following fillies I like a lot. They are my Oaks fillies until someone puts them on the Derby trail, and most of them would rank pretty highly on my list.

1-- Quiet Temper: One can dream. =) But she really was impressive last
out, although against suspect.
2-- Sheer Beauty: Broke maiden impressively on dirt at CD and then won
a turf stakes real impressively in her last. Love her.
3-- Protesting: Whenever a Phipps-bred is a good juvie you have to pay
attention, especially from this family.
4-- Golden Galleon: Can another Medaglia be a big time filly? She's out of
a very talented mare. Won't go as long as the other
girls on my list though.

you and I think alot alike.

I really like s uper saver alot. However, I can't put anyt ood pletcher trained horse in my top 3.

as far as Conveyance.. he's very fast. i see alot of ghostzapper in him in the sense that he has so much speed you will assume he can't route. but look at his race adn his stride was not shortning up whatseover at the end of that race in his allowence.

if he can rate whatsoever I don't think 10F would be too much to ask.

I would add Opus A to the filly list. Fillies are different from colts in they mature early so alot of good 2YO fillies will be good 2-4Yo fillies.

I really think Beatician has alot of upside and got jacked int he Breeders cup race. I have always loved she be wild as well.

[Shammy Davis]

Forgive me, but this thread is like the radio stations that start playing XMAS music two weeks before Thanksgiving. I don't know how anyone can keep track of the juvenile colts at this point to know enough to make a prediction. I guess I'm just jealous that you all have the memory and acumen to keep up with it all.

I start thinking about my picks about 2 hours before post time. Any more than that and I would have talked my wife out of betting FUNNY CIDE.

[bdw0617]

#1 is a one grass start in November at Calder by Yes its True? Jeez I don't know bdw but you should put some $ on the winterbook if you feel that way. Buddy's Saint is better than #9 I think.

also, giacomo is the only horse in the last 5 years to have all his races on dirt before the derby.

[bdw0617]

Forgive me, but this thread is like the radio stations that start playing XMAS music two weeks before Thanksgiving. I don't know how anyone can keep track of the juvenile colts at this point to know enough to make a prediction.

I got it like that

[ASB]

I like Beautician a lot, as well. For the life of me I can't remember why I didn't play her in the BC. I've always liked her and I always put some money down on the Dehere's. He's super solid.

[oliverstoned]

#1 is a one grass start in November at Calder by Yes its True? Jeez I don't know bdw but you should put some $ on the winterbook if you feel that way. Buddy's Saint is better than #9 I think.

also, giacomo is the only horse in the last 5 years to have all his races on dirt before the derby.

Really? That's crazy. I jumped on the Barbaro bandwagon after the Tropical Park Derby so I'm not opposed to the idea it's just that it was a maiden race is all. Whats the vegas line on him?

[bdw0617]

seriously.. i'm not making this up..

i don't know how i accomplished this, but i did not know who barbaro was until he won the derby. he was running away from the field and i was like who the hell is that.

[majxmom]

seriously.. i'm not making this up..

i don't know how i accomplished this, but i did not know who barbaro was until he won the derby. he was running away from the field and i was like who the hell is that.

That's because he ran on turf for so long and no one paid attention since he had zero dirt form until the last minute. I had him at 17-1 in the Derby Future Pool 1, but I saw his first race on TVG, I think. When the Future Book came up, I went ahead and bet him, and it was only later that night I realized that all of his starts had been on turf. Oh well, there's $50 down the drain, I thought. Then he just kept winning. Sure loved that horse....