Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 and GSV scores

[George William Smith]

I have linked the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 entrants with their GSV, Sire and Broodmare Sire scores to my web site at:

<http:/www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker>

The Top 5 horses by Genetic Strength [listed in order] are:
1. Storm Surge
2. Sweet Catomine
3. Harlington
4. Rush Bay
5. Consolidator

The Bottom 5 horses by Genetic Strength are:
19. Afleet Alex
20. Sun King
21. Texcess
22. Closing Argument
23. Spanish Chestnut

If the field went right off as is [very unlikely] the Double Circle System would be the one played and the my bets which are a variation of the Double System would be as follows:

Win: Storm Surge
Exacta Box: Storm Surge, Sweet Catomine, Harlington
Trifecta: Storm Surge, Sweet Catomine Wilco to those three plus Harlington, and those four plus Rush Bay and Consolidator.

Please note: scratches often change my bets dramatically depending on which horses are scratched.

[ZiaLand]

George, interesting theory. But I'm just curious...what did Smarty Jones' GSV look like before the Kentucky Derby last year? Did it change dramatically after the TC series? Seems the GSV is biased against younger, less established sires, but don't they often produce the KD winner?

Also, I believe Hawkster is in Japan. Does this skew the GSV numbers against Afleet Alex because Hawkster isn't producing many NA runners or broodmares?

Where's Rockport Harbor on the list?

Just trying to get a handle on how GSV works as a tool.

Thanks!
Laurie

[George William Smith]

Hi Zia:
Going from memory here, the score was 64.24, not terribly low or high. Moved to 65.61 about the time of the Breeder's Cup. Yep it is biased against young stallions because over 90% fail and even those that seem brilliant now often fall on the butt in a few years.

Japan is taken into account in the last year so no Afleet Alex is not disadvantaged by Hawkster.

Rockport Harbor is ranked 13th on the list. Just follow my link and it you can see where they all rank.

[George William Smith]

Hi Zia:
Going from memory here, the score was 64.24, not terribly low or high. Moved to 65.61 about the time of the Breeder's Cup. Yep it is biased against young stallions because over 90% fail and even those that seem brilliant now often fall on the butt in a few years.

Japan is taken into account in the last year so no Afleet Alex is not disadvantaged by Hawkster.

Rockport Harbor is ranked 13th on the list. Just follow my link and it you can see where they all rank.

[sb]

[quote="George William Smith"]I have linked the Kentucky Derby Future Pool #1 entrants with their GSV, Sire and Broodmare Sire scores to my web site at:

<http:/www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker>

The Top 5 horses by Genetic Strength [listed in order] are:
1. Storm Surge
2. Sweet Catomine
3. Harlington
4. Rush Bay
5. Consolidator

----------------

What about
SCIPION 6-4-13-1-0 (24) - GSV = 74.15 -

Here are a couple more with a GSV of 70 and above

NAUGHTY NEW YORKER. 9-13-10-0-0 (32) - GSV = 71.23 -

SILENT BID 8-5-11-0-0 (24) - GSV = 70.16 -

BANDINI , 14-4-14-0-0 (32) GSV = 70.56 -


Most of the Derby hopefulls arranged according to money won [may change at any time]. LIst is incomplete, of course.


AFLEET ALEX , $680,800 (14) dosage
CLOSING ARGUMENT $511,984 (10)
DECLAN'S MOON G, $509,100 (18)
CONSOLIDATOR $480,260 (16)
PROUD ACCOLADE $454,130 (8)
STORM SURGE. $269,270 (28)
SUN KING $244,850 (14)
GREATER GOOD $226,275 (20)
ROCKPORT HARBOR $210,300 (12)
SPANISH CHESTNUT $174, 420 [18]
GALLOPING GROCER. $154,608 (30)
NAUGHTY NEW YORKER. $143,660 (32
HIGH FLY $117,300 (30]
GOING WILD $172,420 (16]
SCIPION $143,240 (24)
FUSAICHI ROCK STAR $138,366 (10]
GIACOMO . $131,716 (16)
RUSH BAY : $87,755 (22)
BUZZARDS BAY $79,440 (10)
ELECTRIC LIGHT $70,395 [34]
SILENT BID $57,460 (24)
HARLINGTON $47,400 (32)
BANDINI $39,180 (32

[sb]

LOL. Those icons in my list just happend. Don't know how they got in there....

sb

[madelyn]

when posting stats, you can disable emoticons, which are generated by certain numerals and punctuation. If you look at the bottom when you are generating a post, there is a box for "Disable Smilies"

[sb]

when posting stats, you can disable emoticons, which are generated by certain numerals and punctuation. If you look at the bottom when you are generating a post, there is a box for "Disable Smilies"

Thanks, Madelyn.

SB

[George William Smith]

If you'll note from the subject of my posting, it was limited to horses of the Future Book #1 of the KY Derby, so no Scipion, etc.

[tbrace]

Hi,
Can someone explain GSV rating? Thanks!

[Rick]

http://www.members.shaw.ca/thematchmaker/gsv.html

Here is the explanation straight from the horse's mouth.

[Val Divine]

I've got my eye on Scipion. I really like that one.