"I feel the need, the need for speed."

[Whirlaway]

Interesting charts here showing "that speed in Thoroughbred pedigrees is continually increasing."

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/dosage_inflation_in_the_derby.htm

[DDT]

I don't know if you could call the article interesting, what it is is Dr. Roman's opinions as to why 5 horses have now won the Kentucky Derby that had a DI above 4.00. What you must remember here is you are dealing with opinions and opportunity. The opinions of breeders and experts as to how a stallion should perform as a stallion based on his racing record and style compared to his pedigree and what opportunity did the stallion have when it came to the class of mares being bred to him. Two very good examples of this are Alydar, even with 2nd place finishes in the classics he was by Raise A Native and I would say that the majority of opinion was that he would be a speed influence but after two Derby winners and handicap horses such as Turkoman and Criminal Type the experts have changed their minds. His opportunity at stud was short lived but he covered many good mares. Mr. Prospector another speedy son of Raise A Native was also considered to be a speed influence in pedigrees, however, his name has been in the pedigrees of many classic winners in the last 10-15 years, and again, he had all the opportunity in the world to be a successful sire.

You know the old saying that everybody has an opinion, well Dr. Roman is entitled to form his, you are entitled to form yours and I am entitled to form mine.

DDT

[Shammy Davis]

I've come across a couple of articles that have suggested that TB racehorse speed has not increased. Dr. Roman's opinion is not substantiated. I posted a link on the subject to the 'inbreeding et al" thread. I'll see if I can retrieve it. While human athletes have progressed steadily in the area of speed, the racehorse has not.

Remember what Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons said, "Speed kills."

[walaa]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZFr6N2lNY4

[TJ]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZFr6N2lNY4

Hi Walaa,
Listening to the announcer after Slew broke through the gate, praising Cordero I had to wonder what he was watching. If it wasn't for the assistant starter in the gate with him....Slew would have been long gone and that race never would have happened. As it turns out, the assistant who jumped out of the gate with Slew and prevented him from running off, does the same thing once again in his career a couple years later...in the Whitney at Saratoga. This time he saved Fio Rito who went on to win the race. This same handler eventually replaced NYRA Starter Mr. Cassidy when he retired. He's also been responsible for calming Quality Road's antics around the gate....he is Bobby Duncan. TJ

[Whirlaway]

o·pin·ion: 1. a belief or judgment that rests on grounds insufficient to produce complete certainty. 2. a personal view, attitude, or appraisal.
~
fact: 1. something that actually exists; reality; truth:


"You know the old saying that everybody has an opinion, well Dr. Roman is entitled to form his, you are entitled to form yours and I am entitled to form mine."

"I've come across a couple of articles that have suggested that TB racehorse speed has not increased. Dr. Roman's opinion is not substantiated."

What you gentlemen are suggesting is the Thoroughbred has run at the same speed for the past 50 years. Now that's a bit preposterous, don't you think? How about a little common sense? The goal when leaving the gate is to cross the finish line first, in most cases, not all cases, the fastest horse wins. Them guys and gals breed to produce the fastest horse. I'm interested in the article yet to be posted by Shammy "suggesting" speed has not increased in the Thoroughbred.

I need not defend the article posted, the facts speak for themselves. If you believe the data in that article is insufficient or is just an opinion, here is another article substantiating the increasing speed in the thoroughbred: http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/speed_in_the_thoroughbred.htm. Is the math found in this article an opinion or insufficient?

It's all gravy . . . Turkey gravy! Have a nice Holiday guys.

[zinn21]

Man I forgot how awesome Slew was in that race. Thinking back, I don't believe I've ever seen a horse with more nervous energy than Seattle Slew. I think he won the Triple Crown completely washed out in all three races..

[DDT]

Whirlaway

Not once did I discuss average speed of the thoroughbred in my reply, however, since you are so fond of Dr. Roman's beliefs and opinions bring up the article that talks about the thoroughbred has reached the maximum potential for speed. You know why you don't, because you are not actually posting to gain opinion, you are looking for something else.

Just like your wishes for a Happy Thanksgiving, it was meant as a sarcastic aside, your attempts at humor are as thin as your facts when it comes to posting.

Happy Thanksgiving, may you and your family have a great day and enjoy health.

DDT

[Bast]

The evidence is that TBs in the US are mostly stagnating in terms of speed. This isn't true overseas.

And that indicates a deficiency in training methods.

[Shammy Davis]

The case for defined limits in horses and dogs is particularly strong. Despite intensive programs to breed faster thoroughbreds and greyhounds, despite increasing populations from which to choose exceptional individuals, and despite the use of any undetected performance-enhancing drugs, race speeds in these animals have not increased in the last 40–60 years. Thus, for horses and dogs, a limit appears to have been reached, subject only to a slight (and bounded) further increase due to random sampling. The situation is less clear cut for humans, in particular for men.

http://jeb.biologists.org/cgi/content/full/211/24/3836

[Shammy Davis]

Here is an interesting article regarding human and animal athletes.

http://www.popularmechanics.com/outdoor ... s#fbIndex1

[Shammy Davis]

In spite of significant advances of veterinary science in the field of sports medicine and the improvements in horse training techniques and nutrition, the times for championship races have not improved to any appreciable extent - unlike those in human athletic competition. The basic unsoundness in the thoroughbred racehorse has stifled the development of the breed; and there is no current evidence that would indicate an imminent change. There is an old but true saying that “man is the greatest disease of the horse”.

http://en.engormix.com/MA-equines/manag ... 124-p0.htm

I don't agree w/the article's reference to basic "unsoundness." That has yet to be substantiated also.

[TJ]

Interesting charts here showing "that speed in Thoroughbred pedigrees is continually increasing."

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/dosage_inflation_in_the_derby.htm

Hi Whirl,
The graph Roman's represents, isn't a graph showing that the thoroughbred's speed is steadily increasing.......it is'nt. This graph is his defense of the recent high Dosage Index horses that have been winning the Kentucky Derby. This graph shows overall inherent speed is increasing within a thorougbred's pedigree, not an increase in raw speed times. Therefore one of the reasons why we are seeing horses winning the Derby with DI's over 4.00. The other reason he's trying to get across in his defense of dosage is that as these sires continue to produce quality distance horses, these sires will be added as classic chefs-de-race. But it takes quite some time before there is enough evidence to create these sires as a chef....one sire in question would be Birdstone.TJ

[Whirlaway]

" . . . your attempts at humor are as thin as your facts when it comes to posting. "

Speaking of thin on the facts, if they exist, please post the articles you wrote: The Double Beyer Advantage and The Well-Meant Shipper; If it exists please post the data you collected "on 1,000 horses and the double figure advantage had a win percentage of over 50% and the triple figure win rate was a little over 70%. I now have over 5,000 horses entered and these percentages have remained pretty close." (PROVE IT) ; If it exits please post the data you collected with respect to the "Double Beyer Advantage" return on investment.

Guess we'll see soon enough who is thin on the facts.
~
Shammy,
Nice links. Interestingly, in the Osborne article, you posted the section agreeing w/your perspective - what about the sentence: "In its evolution the thoroughbred has developed more speed, but at the expense of stamina." Of course, likely you don't agree w/that part of the study.

It might also be helpful to read this section of the Denny study, particularly the last sentence:

Evolution
Is it reasonable to suppose that the evolution of speed in horses has reached its limits? In a restricted sense, the answer is yes. The equipment used in horse racing, and the surfaces of the tracks on which these races are contested, did not change appreciably during the years when speeds were increasing in the Triple Crown races, and they have not changed since. Nor were there any apparent breakthroughs in training or nutrition that led to the increases in speed in thoroughbreds in the first half of the twentieth century. It seems likely, then, that the initial increase in speed in horses was due primarily to selective breeding. If this is true, evidence from the Triple Crown races suggests that the process of selective breeding of thoroughbreds (as practiced in the US) is incapable of producing a substantially faster horse: despite the efforts of the breeders, speeds are not increasing, and current attempts to breed faster horses may instead be producing horses that are more fragile (Drape, 2008Go). The fastest speed in two of the Triple Crown races was set in 1973 by the same horse, Secretariat, and he was initially credited with a speed equal to the record in the third race (the Preakness Stakes) as well. (The timer malfunctioned in that race, however, and Secretariat's subsequently established official speed is slightly slower.) Thus, Secretariat approached the predicted absolute maximum speeds in all three of his Triple Crown races and therefore may represent a good approximation of the ultimate individual thoroughbred in races 1.25–1.5 miles long.

In a larger sense, however, the equine data presented here are preliminary at best. It may well be possible that different criteria for selective breeding of horses could produce a faster animal."

Rather odd, don't you think, that you would post two articles both referencing speed and fragility.
~
TJ,

Indeed you are correct that "This graph is his defense of the recent high Dosage Index horses that have been winning the Kentucky Derby. This graph shows overall inherent speed is increasing within a thoroughbred's pedigree, not an increase in raw speed times."

In the new link you will see that overall raw speed has increased.
~
Once again, it is preposterous to believe that the Thoroughbred has run at the same speed for the past 50 years. How about a little common sense? The goal when leaving the gate is to cross the finish line first, in most cases, not all cases, the fastest horse wins. Them guys and gals breed to produce the fastest horse. It's all potatoes and gravy - heavy on the facts.

[Shammy Davis]

Whirlaway: There have been very limited in depth studies on this subject. The reason for this is that whether or not the TB is or is not increasing speed is inconsequential to the sport at this moment. Track speed records are relatively unimportant. Trainers and owners just want to see their horses hit the board. The Denny study is authentic research. Osborne is just an article. As you can see I've not tried to sway opinion. I've provided you the links. I'm sure we would agree on some aspects of the information and disagree on others. The Denny Study is creditable and credible.

As a farrier starting out in late 60's, I learned a different definition of unsoundness that was more specific than one used today. It essentially said that unsoundness is defined as a long term physical deficiency that prohibits a horse from doing the work that it was trained for. In other words, the horse has a serious ailment that cannot be repaired to allow the horse to return to the work it was trained for ever again. Today's definition is quite broad and allows for temporary ailments. Louis is having a "hay day" w/the term. Many race horses can and do return to the track after injury when they were called unsound during the interim. Fragility in our current TB is yet to be proven. You asked for a study and I provided it. Actually, I haven't found the article I referenced earlier. I'm still looking. The conclusion from the Denny Research is that the TB has not increased in speed in last 40 to 60 years. It's authentic research with an unbiased sample. The Romans' work is limited because of its sample. Anyone that reads Romans can see that his sample is biased and small and does not take into account the variety of races that challenge the TB racehorse.

It looks to me that you are unhappy that you got challenged. The chef and the reines sites are interesting reads, but I don't think racing stables can take their horses to the bank on their information.