Belmont picks

[Bill from WA]

Belmont Picks

Here are my Belmont picks based on a formula that attempts to evaluate the pedigree and racing potential of 3 year-olds trying the 12 furlong distance for the first time. In this race speed has historically been very dangerous, and pace should be a prime consideration. Shackleford should be the pace of the race, and he DOES have the pedigree to get the distance. The numbers listed below are derived from a formula that attempts to predict the horses that should handle the distance, with the lower number being the most likely.

1) Master of Hounds 0.87
2) Stay Thirsty 1.12
3) Ruler On Ice 1.24
4) Santiva 1.10
5) Brilliant Speed 1.03
6) Nehro 0.98
7) Monzon 0.97
8) Prime Cut 1.24
9) Animal Kingdom 0.72
10) Mucho Macho Man 1.01
11) Isn’t He Perfect 0.98
12) Shackleford 0.84

I will play various exotics using: Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Master of Hounds, Monzon, and Nehro. I will play Animal Kingdom to win.

Good luck.

Bill

[zinn21]

Master Of Hounds seems to be the buzz horse. Frank Lyons from TVG loves the horse. I think I'll stay with Animal Kingdom.

[ElPrado]

I'm staying with AK too. He and Shackleford are my horses in a fantasy stable.

[Joltman]

An interesting observation on this year's Belmont is how SOUND the top horses have been coming through the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... C4BCD048AE

The top six Derby finishers are in the Belmont (first time in ages) and the Preakness winner is meeting the Derby winner. Usually the Derby wrings out the 3yo crop and most only show up later in the season. This year, despite the slow speed figs, they have at least held up. (or maybe because of the speed figs?)

Animal Kingdom should win soundly, assuming JV does not move too soon. Master of Hounds one of interest - nice effort in KD despite coming from Dubai. Could really jump up here. Nehro, Brilliant Speed complete minor awards. Shackleford too keen - finishes up the track.

jm

[Aug27]

I'll be using Animal Kingdom, Santiva, and Brilliant Speed in the first and second spots in exotics, with Master of Hounds and Shackleford underneath.

My largest Straight money will be on Animal Kingdom to Place, with a smaller amount on Santiva across the board, and token coverage on Brilliant Speed to Show.

I'm tossing Nehro and Mucho Macho Man, as I think they will both be overbet and will come up short in the lane. (I acknowledge in advance that either may knock me completely out, but I'm willing to take that risk given their expected low-ish odds).

[bdw0617]

i like shackleford. I think he is being ran into a really good horse. every race he has run he has gotten better and better and i don't see that trend stopping. I think he's going to run them off their feet

[bdw0617]

the belmont stakes, is almost always won by a jockey that runs regularly at belmont, or has in the past.


Belmont is the biggest track in the country and alot of jockeies who don't ride there often get fooled on the turn. a few triple crowns have been lost because of that (cough smarty jones/steward elliot cough)



that would eliminate in this race Santiva and Nehro. Garrett gomez isn't based in NY but he usually ends up going to NY after santa anita winter meet so it should not be an issue for him.

[siegy]

Belmont Picks

Here are my Belmont picks based on a formula that attempts to evaluate the pedigree and racing potential of 3 year-olds trying the 12 furlong distance for the first time. In this race speed has historically been very dangerous, and pace should be a prime consideration. Shackleford should be the pace of the race, and he DOES have the pedigree to get the distance. The numbers listed below are derived from a formula that attempts to predict the horses that should handle the distance, with the lower number being the most likely.

1) Master of Hounds 0.87
2) Stay Thirsty 1.12
3) Ruler On Ice 1.24
4) Santiva 1.10
5) Brilliant Speed 1.03
6) Nehro 0.98
7) Monzon 0.97
Prime Cut 1.24
9) Animal Kingdom 0.72
10) Mucho Macho Man 1.01
11) Isn’t He Perfect 0.98
12) Shackleford 0.84

I will play various exotics using: Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Master of Hounds, Monzon, and Nehro. I will play Animal Kingdom to win.

Good luck.

Bill

Hallo Bill,

Race of the Century:

Pour Moi= 20.11

Treasure Beach=6.10

Good Luck,

Siegy,

[Bill from WA]

Here are my revised final Belmont choices.

1) Master of Hounds 0.87 (Should be closer to the pace, probably within 4 lengths of the lead at 1 mile).
2) Stay Thirsty 1.12 (expect a big improvement after being freshened. I don’t expect a winner here, but will play in my exotics)
3) Ruler On Ice 1.24 (I don’t think he’s good enough)
4) Santiva 1.10 (should run in mid pack, but may not have enough left at the end)
5) Brilliant Speed 1.03 (should be 7th or 8th in the back stretch run, and may get a piece)
6) Nehro 0.98 (I think he will be fairly close to the pace, and should finish well enough to be in the money)
7) Monzon 0.97 (just not fast enough. I tried to justify his good number, but in the end he was a toss)
8) Prime Cut 1.24 (will lay just off the pace, but won’t have anything left for the stretch run)
9) Animal Kingdom 0.72 (should be 5 or 6 lengths back at 1 mile, and will close strongly to win it).
10) Mucho Macho Man 1.01 (I think he will be much closer to the pace, drafting just off Shackleford and press that runner turning for home)
11) Isn’t He Perfect 0.98 (not fast enough, but has a good number, so he may surprise) (like the jock)
12) Shackleford 0.84 (the pace of the race, and I believe he will hold on a lot better than many anticipate. He just won’t be able to fight off Animal Kingdom in the end. I expect the splits to be similar to Da’ Tara’s Belmont, maybe 23.4 – 48.2 – 1:12.4 – 1:37.4 to the mile marker.

I will play various exotics using: Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, Master of Hounds, Stay Thirsty, and Nehro. I will play Animal Kingdom to win.

Good luck.

Bill

[dray33]

I'm tossing Animal Kingdom and Shack.
Nehro, Master of Hounds are likely. Santiva to win.

[joanied]

Glad to see someone besides myself beleive Shackelford can get the distance...thanks, Bill from WA
I've changed my picks lists several times, but always come back to Shack & AK (I'll probably regret using Brillian Speed)

Shack
AK
MMM
Brilliant Speed
Stay Thirsty (love his ped, I knew his great grand dam...which ages me, Equal Change)

AK
Shack
MMM
Nehro (probably be sorry 'bout this too)
Stay Thirsty

May the best horse win and all come home safe!!!

[ratherrapid]

Shakelford

[bdw0617]

changing pick to animal kingdom

[hpkingjr]

$5.00 exacta and tri box with Master of Hounds, Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man. My $2 super will be Hounds on top and box AK, MMM and Nehro. Total bet $132.00

[jellac]

First 3 races at Belmont - sealed track last night w/ on and off rain today - indicates a strong preference for whatever horse is on/near the lead at the final turn running on while others seem mired in quicksand.

With that bit of insight - and assuming it holds up -

I am betting MOH, NEHRO, MMM?, SHACK.... with possibility of Brilliant Speed, ANIMAL KINGDOM (I SO want to bet this horse $100 to win - period but can not do it under these conditions) in a trifecta bet of some sort, not sure yet who I'll box vs. others.....and maybe Santiva???? Will also take a late look at Monsun....basically will be looking for horses that have raced and done well at Belmont and have the speed/creds to hang with this crowd + jockeys & trainers with Belmont experience, etc. to modify this approach but that's my thinking this AM as I head for SHRP > SAM HOUSTON RACE PARK, to bet the race....and if I'm feeling lucky/prescient, maybe the late Pick 4 (or is it the Late Pick 6?), staying through Race 13

I mostly hope see all contenders come home safe sound.....

Oh....and one other prayer to the racing gods> PLEASE, PRETTY PLEASE let ANIMAL KINGDOM return to his KENTUCY DERBY FORM, show us he LOVES the mud and prove me faithless for ever doubting him.