Derby start

[Bill from WA]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
8) Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

[TJ]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

Hi Bill,
I mentioned your top two on bdw's thread....Cerro and Orb both looked good Saturday at GP....GP bent over backwards and split that 1 1/8th mile allowance race in order to get all the 3YO's in that were looking for the distance prep. Orb had a bit of a rough trip and steadied along in the early going....Cerro took the lead in his division and increased his advantage....time-wise Cerro was a bit better, but Orb was impressive overcoming adversity. Hoping to see one or both of them in the Fountain of Youth. Glad to see Shanghai Bobby and Uncaptured high up on your list too. Thanks for the post....TJ

[Joltman]

might be worth a few bucks in the futures pool on a couple of the sleepers on the top. Bill's be on top of the derby picks with this in the past.

jm

[bdw0617]

out of curosity how does a son of awesome again.. who won a 10F breeders cup classic as well as sired the horse who has run the fastest Breeders cup classic of all time, out of a full sister to a 2 time breeders cup classic winner get a D minus?

[Bill from WA]

Hi bdw

Oxbow does indeed have some great credentials. My examination just looks at pedigree from a slightly different angle. The way his pedigree is put together leads me to believe that he might not quite get the Derby distance on the first Saturday in May (then again, he might just run away and hide, if he makes it to the race). That's why I love this time of year, everyone has a strong opinion. Lots of pressure on these young horses being asked to do something they have never experienced, and all I'm trying to do is maybe get a leg up. Oxbow has a "D", not a "D minus". I wish you nothing but the best of luck. You are an excellent handicapper.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ

Thanks for the report on Orb and Cerro. I suspected Cerro might have some speed. We'll just have to see what unfolds in the next few weeks. I talked to Kathleen Irwin (Team Valor) recently, and they have another youngster they are pretty high on named Crop Report. He looks pretty good on paper too, but not quite up to Cerro's Derby distance pedigree (in my opinion). He might be worth keeping an eye on. I want everyone to know, that these initial pedigree projections are for a specific race, the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, and my final Derby selection won't be made for awhile yet. This is just part of the first step. Good luck to everyone.

Bill

[TJ]

Hi TJ

Thanks for the report on Orb and Cerro. I suspected Cerro might have some speed. We'll just have to see what unfolds in the next few weeks. I talked to Kathleen Irwin (Team Valor) recently, and they have another youngster they are pretty high on named Crop Report. He looks pretty good on paper too, but not quite up to Cerro's Derby distance pedigree (in my opinion). He might be worth keeping an eye on. I want everyone to know, that these initial pedigree projections are for a specific race, the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, and my final Derby selection won't be made for awhile yet. This is just part of the first step. Good luck to everyone.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Crop Report is an interesting prospect as well...he seems to be coming along slowly, more along the lines of Animal Kingdom. Seems he's on a once a week schedule of breezing and this AM stretched out and was asked for more going 5/8ths in 1:02.55 B on the turf with the dogs up well off the rail. He's pretty unique coming here from Newmarket and being bred in Kentucky. I see how Cerro could be better off in the Derby since Crop Report is out of a Crafty Prospector mare. This is getting interesting all ready and we have a long way to go till the 50 point preps come into play. Regards, TJ

[Bill from WA]

Looking over Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen, I checked out some of his selections that I didn't have listed in my earlier post, and he had a few that look very good from my analysis perspective. Here are my A's and B's.

Cerro (A++)
Palace Malice (A++)
Flashback (A++)
Orb (A)
Revolutionary (A)
Shanghai Bobby (B)
Crop Report (B)
Frac Daddy (B)

Close: He's Had Enough, Uncaptured, Power Broker, Dewey Square, Fury Kapcori. BDW, I have to admit that Oxbow scares me even though his pedigree came up short in my methodology.

[TJ]

Looks like Oxbow will run in the Risen Star on Feb. 23rd. The Risen Star, in Louisiana and the Fountain of Youth in Florida, are the first two 50 point Derby prep races on the schedule. TJ

[bdw0617]

you misunderstand me TJ. I dont' particularly like oxbow. i seriously am curious as to how it's a D with that pedigree. at first look that's a kick ass classic pedigree. what about it is not good per your numbers

FTR I don't think we've seen the derby winner yet. these are all pretenders.

[TJ]

you misunderstand me TJ. I dont' particularly like oxbow. i seriously am curious as to how it's a D with that pedigree. at first look that's a kick ass classic pedigree. what about it is not good per your numbers

FTR I don't think we've seen the derby winner yet. these are all pretenders.

Hi bdw,
You have me and Bill confused....you have to refer this post to Bill. In any case, we are simply having a Derby discussion...that is far from over...we have the 50 and 100 point qualifying races yet to come.....so no telling where the list of contenders and pretenders will go. I agree Oxbow does have some serious distance potential....let's see what Lukas does with him after the Risen Star.
Just learned that Orb has no immediate plans and Cerro will skip the Fountain of Youth and point to the Palm Beach Stakes on the turf then to Turfway and the Spiral (50 points) as he did with his last two Derby starters. TJ

[smartyslew]

Here's an early look at a few Derby possibles, and my evaluation of their potential to get the Derby distance (based on my Modern Conduit Mare Profiles). I haven't gone into racing ability or connections as yet, this is just an opinion of distance aptitude. I have done pretty well over the years using this approach as a foundation. It seems like I have come up with a Team Valor runner the past couple of years.

1) Cerro (A-double plus)
2) Orb (A)
3) Frac Daddy (B-plus)
4) Shanghai Bobby (B)
5) Uncaptured (C)
6) Power Broker (C)
7) He’s Had Enough (C-minus)
Dewey Square (C-minus)
9) Fury Kapcori (C-minus)
10) Overanalyze (D)
11) Normandy Invasion (D)
12) Oxbow (D)
13) Shakin It Up (D)
14) Violence (D-minus)
15) Goldencents (D-minus)
16) Itsmyluckyday (D-minus)
17) Bern Identity (F)

bill what are your thougts on belvin and verrazano and general election?

[Bill from WA]

Hi BDW

As I mentioned in previous posts, I evaluate pedigree from a totally different perspective than most. For me, it works. Oxbow has a lot of stamina in his pedigree, but not in the areas that I examine. Awesome Again and Ghostzapper both won at 10 furlongs, but not until they were four-year-olds. I am examining these pedigrees with one race in mind, and try to project which horses have the right pedigree to run effectively at the Derby distance early in their three-year-old year. Using my methodology (as a starting point) I have picked 10 of the last 15 Kentucky Derby winners. I missed on Giacomo, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, Charismatic, and Monarchos, much to my dismay considering some of the payoffs. There is a lot of time to re-evaluate between now and Derby day, and my pedigree evaluation is just a starting point.
Best to you.

Bill

[Bill from WA]

Hi Smartyslew

I rate Belvin as a (C)
I rate Verrazano at (BMinus)
General Election is very interesting. I rate him as (A++)
We'll see if they have the talent to go along with their pedigrees (General Election is now on my watch list, thank you for bringing him to my attention).

Bill

[Jeff]

http://www.horseracingnation.com/p/c/ke ... contenders

Here's the long list