Violence who???

[Cree]

Super Ninety Nine wins the Southwest by 11+ lengths under wraps.

And I thought I liked Shakin It Up.

[ageecee]

that horse ran huge today

[Bill from WA]

This guy has a huge upside. He has an A++ stamina rating, and should get better the farther he goes. His Conduit Mare Siberia is rated as a "P". Same family as Curlin (War Exchange is Curlin's 3rd dam, and is Super Ninety Nine's 4th dam). This family also produced the Grand National Steeplechase champion, Ben Nevis. I may be looking at my new early favorite.

Bill

[Cree]

Is he named after Wayne Gretzky?

I know he won in the slop, but if it rains on Derby day....look out.

[zinn21]

Baffert's got about a half dozen crazy good three year olds..

[bdw0617]

i hate to be that guy lol, but seriously a group of one legged blind pirates could have out ran that group of horses. god awful.

i never put stock into lengths of victory in triple crown races beucase 80% of the horses have no business on the trail.

i doubt he gets it that easy in the rebel.

hell i never liked violence. i don't care how much you win by if you beat no one doing it. that's what a grade 2-1 type horse should be able to do.. beat the living crap out of allowance horses. that's what he did. but that doesn't make him a super star.

another thing that irks me about the horse is that while baffert owns oaklawn, he owns it with his 2nd string of horses. ralrey does he send what he thinks is his best shot, he likes to minimize the aount of traveling that his A horse does.

any time baffert sends a horse east, or pletcher sends a horse to Fair Grounds or Oaklawn = auto toss.

the only time that was not the case was last year when Baffert did not want to re match IHA and CC in the SA Derby

[Cree]

Out of curiosity, who's Baffert's best 3-year-old? In your mind.

[bdw0617]

i don't like any of them. i think the horses out west are weak this year as a whole.

i am going to post something either later today or tomorrow that's quite interesting i'm doing some research. beucase we do this every year a horse wins by open lengths and he's the next great thing and you don't know what you are talking about if you try to talk people off of him.

[wen8t]

I think flashback is his best

[stancaris]

BDW: A horse like Super ninety nine has great speed and won the sloppy Southwest stakes because he was the dominant speed horse in slop and he had a 414 Tomlinson mud number. Winners of the Derby seldom go wire to wire so he must be taught to rate off the pace in his next start which will probably be his last before the Derby. He could win the roses but my guess is that he will probably just be part of the early pace at CD on the first Sat in May.

The last Derby winner to go wire to wire was War Emblem in 2002 and before that it was Go For Gin in 1994 and Winning Colors in 1988. Thats 3 wire to wire winners in the last 25 years. Generally, wire to wire types just do not get the job done at 10 furlongs against the best 3 year olds in the run for the roses.

[Bill from WA]

Speculation……..This is why this time of year is so much fun. We are all trying to forecast what these young equine athletes will accomplish while attempting something that none of them have ever tried before. At this point everyone’s opinion is valid. The proof will come on the first Saturday in May. My methodology is to evaluate the pedigrees of the potential runners in order to make a decision on which of them have the pedigree potential (again, just my opinion) to successfully navigate the Derby distance. This is just a starting point since none of us know which horses will actually run in the Derby, or what the pace scenario will be. I really like the pedigrees of several horses at this point, but a final decision won’t come until much closer to Derby day. Until then, we’re all in the same boat trying to look into the future.
Good luck to all.

Bill

[zinn21]

Who knows; he might be a freak. He is well bred by Pulpit and as Bill alluded he appears to be able to run all day pedigree wise. If it's sloppy on Derby day he will definitely get my attention..

[Sir Barton]

With the new point system there will be less early pace in the Derby over the next few years. The derby will have a more normal pace scenario that will favor early speed types more than the last twenty years. The speed duels will take place in the Derby preps where I will be playing more closers in the exotics. In the Derby I will be playing early speed and early pressers in the exotics and tossing the closers. Just my opinion but also how I plan to play this season.

[stancaris]

Sir Barton: That's an interesting prediction and over the last 10 years some pace setters in the Derby were nothing more than early speed types that could grab the lead and then fade out of the money. Certainly with their absence the pace scenario may become different.

However, last year it was Bodemeister who went the first six furlongs in 1:09 4/5 and he certainly wasn't cheap speed or a just a sprinter. He won the Ark Derby big time at 9 furlongs wire to wire and finished second in the Derby and Preakness both major route races. So it is still possible that front-running types will be present in this years Derby that are not just sprinters and the pace can still be hot. We have to wait and see what kind of speed horses enter the run for the roses. If it looks like just one lone speedster that has proven a winner at 9 furlongs in a major stake race we may just get a Derby winner going wire to wire. However, if several wire to wire types are entered we are back to square one where the Derby will favor off the pace types.

[TJ]

The new point system was created to change the type of horses we see in the Derby. It was specifically designed to eliminate horses such as Trinniberg, this years champion sprinter....from having enough graded earnings to get a spot in the Derby. This attempt is seen in the new system...by the elimination of the GR II Hutchenson, the Gr I Hopeful, the Gr II Nashua, The GR III Swale and the GR III Bayshore as Derby qualifier races. These are the same races used by Trinniberg to earn enough graded points to get his spot in the Derby. Although we have seen some of these races used by the likes of Secretariat.....any and all speed horses who show up in this year's Derby will be able to carry their speed a distance of ground. Although there is still no guarantee any of them can venture into "no mans land" and carry their speed 1 1/4 miles. As we approach the Derby, the distances for the qualifying races increase to 1 1/16th and 1 1/8th miles. Fairly well eliminating any champion sprinter type speed in the Derby without proof they can carry that speed.....such as Trinniberg and from years ago, Shecky Greene who set the pace in Secretariat's record setting Derby. TJ