The Rebel Stakes GR II

[TJ]

10th Race. (C9)Post 5:48PM STAKES
The 53rd Running of THE REBEL (Grade II)
Purse $600,000 Guaranteed 1 1/16 Miles
THREE YEAR OLDS.
1 CARVE (L) R24 Asmussen, S Nakatani, C 117
2a TREASURY BILL (L) Ellis, R Talamo, J 115
3 TEXAS BLING (L) 0 Durham, D Berry, M 119
4 DELHOMME (L) Pletcher, T Gomez, G 115
5 HARDROCK ELEVEN (L) Banks, D Thompson, T 115
6 DEN'S LEGACY (L) Baffert, B Albarado, R 119
7 WILL TAKE CHARGE (L) 0 Lukas, D Court, J 122
8 STORMY HOLIDAY (L) 0 Robertson, M Bell, D 115
9a TITLE CONTENDER (L) - Catalano, W Quinonez, L 115
10 OXBOW (L) 30 Lukas, D Smith, M 122
11 SUPER NINETY NINE (L) - Baffert, B Bejarano, R 122
a -- West, Gary and Mary

[Cree]

I like Super Ninety Nine. I don't like that post.

[Bill from WA]

Hi TJ

I was concentrating on the top 30 point winners. Delhomme was below that bunch. He's a nice horse but I think all he wants (from my pedigree evaluation) would be about a mile and a sixteenth. He might do OK in this race but I don't believe he wants a mile and a quarter. I like Super Ninety Nine and Treasury Bill, but the horse that I think has the best shot at an upset at a price is Carve. Nice Derby distance pedigree. That would be my trifecta (box Super Ninety Nine, Treasury Bill and Carve). Oxbow could pull it off (really training well), but again, I don’t think he can win the Derby.

Bill

[bdw0617]

I like Super Ninety Nine. I don't like that post.

this times 10000000


he is the best horse but the best B ET is probably delhome

if i were baffert i'd scratch. this would be basically a wasted race. even if he wins it will take WAY too much out of him to win this race at that post. this is a much better field than the southwest as well

[TJ]

Here's the PP's for the Rebel. TJ
http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewe ... 2013-03-16

[TJ]

Hi TJ

I was concentrating on the top 30 point winners. Delhomme was below that bunch. He's a nice horse but I think all he wants (from my pedigree evaluation) would be about a mile and a sixteenth. He might do OK in this race but I don't believe he wants a mile and a quarter. I like Super Ninety Nine and Treasury Bill, but the horse that I think has the best shot at an upset at a price is Carve. Nice Derby distance pedigree. That would be my trifecta (box Super Ninety Nine, Treasury Bill and Carve). Oxbow could pull it off (really training well), but again, I don’t think he can win the Derby.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Thanks for the info on Delhomme. I'm concerned with his long layoff, although he's training like he'll run good? Will have to take a closer look...and check the weather report before I decide. What if Carve does well...that won't look too good for Claiborne and Al Stall. TJ

[bdw0617]

if not for the points system, there is no way super 99 is in this race. he would have skipped and ran in the ark derby.

it's making ALL the triple crown races revelant

[TJ]

Hi TJ

I was concentrating on the top 30 point winners. Delhomme was below that bunch. He's a nice horse but I think all he wants (from my pedigree evaluation) would be about a mile and a sixteenth. He might do OK in this race but I don't believe he wants a mile and a quarter. I like Super Ninety Nine and Treasury Bill, but the horse that I think has the best shot at an upset at a price is Carve. Nice Derby distance pedigree. That would be my trifecta (box Super Ninety Nine, Treasury Bill and Carve). Oxbow could pull it off (really training well), but again, I don’t think he can win the Derby.

Bill

Hi Bill,
Looks like the weather will be OK at Oaklawn tomorrow. Not really one of my preferred tracks, but I see more good riders shipping in from California for the Rebel, then stayed at Santa Anita:>) Keeping that in mind, I will go with Garret Gomez riding for Todd Pletcher on Delhomme (1st).....good works, a 7 lb. pull in the weights and drew best of the speed horses. Super Ninety Nine (2nd) has to overcome his outside post and his 122 lb. package, but it seems he can run over fast and off track surfaces...if he drew better he would have been my choice as Baffert tries to win his 4th straight Rebel Stakes. Oxbow (3rd) also carries 122 lbs., most of that Mike Smith and he drew just inside Super Ninety Nine. Title Contender (4th) working great at Oaklawn, gets a trainer change since his last and should improve. Will Take Charge (LS) is better than his last....maybe it was the slop? TJ

[DDT]

TJ

How about a D. Wayne exacta for $275.80 and you liked them both, you are still the man even if you like bingo.........

DDT

[TJ]

TJ

How about a D. Wayne exacta for $275.80 and you liked them both, you are still the man even if you like bingo.........

DDT

Hi DDT,
You're making me blush:>) Delhomme was dead on the board and was rank warming up....so I threw him out, he was eased! That left me with a 4 horse box, so I took some of that exacta with me:>) I was happy to see Jon Court end up on the right Lukas horse. Anyone for some BINGO:>) TJ

[Whirlaway]

Interesting outcome.

I didn't pay much attention to the race because the past performances were not definitive - just weren't the same, different format, couldn't work with em', couldn't make sense of em', so I didn't post a comment. Nevertheless . . . and as there seems to be no other way, in the last race, the Tampa Bay Derby at one mile and one sixteenth, where Verrazano wired em', the Center of Distribution for the length of that race and the Center of Distribution possessed by the winner was CD 0.69. Low and behold, and once again, as there seems to be no other way, the winner of the Rebel Stakes at one mile and one sixteenth, same distance as the Tampa Bay Derby, possessed a Center of Distribution of 0.69.

How could I have not seen that. Guess I just didn't look. I fell in love with Dosage when Spend A Buck wired em' in the Derby back in 85'. Good to see the data set still holds true 28 years later. Thanks Doc, keep up the good and fine right work, Dosage fans appreciate it.

Nothin' like Dosage and the Derby Trail !

Lookin' forward to the Florida Derby.

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2013/2013_derby_point_leaders.htm

[ct2346]

Whirlaway- thank you for posting the link. However, i believe that any reliance on CD as a relevant indicator is misguided. i too suffered throught the "dual qualifier" hysteria of the 90's and am thankful that it's found its proper place on the trash heap.

[ct2346]

While going through the top 25 list provided above i noticed a surprising dearth, or at least under-representation of Storm Cat in the pedigrees. Take Harlan's Holiday out of the picture and the once prolific SC is extremely missing.

I am not an anti-SC zealot or anything like that...but it is good to see the relative over-presence of Damascus and Deputy Minister here in this list. maybe it's just an anomoly....

[dublino]

Will take charge by Unbridled Song (RAN sireline) out of a G1 winner.
I looked it up TJ it's an A++ Nick.

Horse cost almost half a million, not the rags to riches story you like.

Stick this one down as a contender in your Derby BINGO

[TJ]

Will take charge by Unbridled Song (RAN sireline) out of a G1 winner.
I looked it up TJ it's an A++ Nick.

Horse cost almost half a million, not the rags to riches story you like.

Stick this one down as a contender in your Derby BINGO

Hi Dub,
Maybe not a feel good breeding story involved (although very happy Jon Court won the race after being taken off Oxbow when Lukas imported Mike Smith to ride him....for me that was the feel good story:>). I knew all those facts you brought up before the race and the fact he is a 1/2 to last years Florida Derby winner Take Charge Indy...all the more reason to bet on him at that ridiculous price. He was a very good LS play. No bingo needed figuring him out:>)....just had to throw out his bad race over that off track against the mud loving Super Ninety Nine who couldn't even get third for me in the Tri.....but the exacta consolation prize paid the bingo bills:>) TJ