Beyer Speed Figures for the Rebel?

citation011 · Postby **citation011** » Sun Mar 20, 2005 7:04 pm

Has anyone seen the BSF's for the Rebel?

Ill-bred · Postby **Ill-bred** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:21 pm

Looking at the day's charts, it's gonna be real slow.....

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 2:37 pm

Ill-bred wrote:Looking at the day's charts, it's gonna be real slow.....

Hopefully they'll adjust the numbers for the Felipe, too and roll them back considering how fast that track was playing. Otherwise, we're going to see a 110 next to Consolidator's name when it should maybe be closer to 105

freddymo · Postby **freddymo** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 7:40 pm

I think rebel was a 90 or 91 Gotham 90 SF was 105 or 6. I thought the Gotham was weird race all kinds of situations. I think Shug is surprised his top dog is Survivalist and not Defer.

reenci · Postby **reenci** » Mon Mar 21, 2005 9:28 pm

Sam wrote:
Ill-bred wrote:Looking at the day's charts, it's gonna be real slow.....

Hopefully they'll adjust the numbers for the Felipe, too and roll them back considering how fast that track was playing. Otherwise, we're going to see a 110 next to Consolidator's name when it should maybe be closer to 105

104 is what he recieved as a beyer.

Ill-bred · Postby **Ill-bred** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 7:36 am

From today's drf:

Consolidator 104

Greater Good 96

Survivalist 90

Ill-bred · Postby **Ill-bred** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 8:11 am

Adjust Greater Good to 95.

Sun King got a 91.

Joe · Postby **Joe** » Tue Mar 22, 2005 10:08 pm

As purely a handicapper, I thought Greater Good ran about his best and if at 96 that gives Rockport Harbor a 94 which can give him a shot at the 111 to 120 Derby range, sometimes adjusted. sometines a 111 to 113 is all it takes. I remember when Silver Charm won it went in as a 111-113, the mysteriously got to a 126. In the true nature of the Beyer's, a 111 to 117 should win it. The figs are back-doctored to make them look different The relevance of the Beyer's are quickly diminishing because of these issues.

With 3YO Derby horses, I think it's the capability to improve these figures. I think Greater Good tops here or goes on a bit more and then regresses. Rockport Harbor does have the top end unlimited, especially with that stride. Afleet Alex does not seem to like two turns as much as one. Zito is loaded. The Sun king Beyer is off because he waited for others to catch up, very impressive

citation011 · Postby **citation011** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:44 am

Thank you for the info guys. The BSF of 95 was better than I expected(given the splits), but much lower than I would have anticipated going into the race. Rockport Harbor appears ready for a bounce in the Arkansas given his effort in the Rebel(very impressive). However, I'm curious what other horses may ship in for the million dollar purse that appears to be wide open--I read on DRF or Bloodhorse-the potential that Wilko may surface in Arkansas- Is anyone aware of any other horses that may ship in for the Arkansas Derby?

Joe · Postby **Joe** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:23 pm

citation, I'll bet you "Rocky" doesn't bounce. Afleet Alex was a classic "bounce". Now Greater Good may bounce next race. You have to get a handle on what a "bounce" is. It is running higher figures than ever before and regressing afterward. The problem with 3YO's in their first race as a 3YO is they have gotten bigger and improved. I look for "Rocky" to go forward in the Arkansas Derby and win. Greater Good might regress, if not he's a real good horse. Afleet Alex is anybody's guess at this point. Derby winner's don't typically bounce, they run good numbers and then run a huge number if they win the Derby mostly because of the competition. Usually the Derby winner has run at least one 100+ Beyer before the Derby.

citation011 · Postby **citation011** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 9:54 pm

I'm here to learn- I guess I do not understand the use of the word "bounce"- I expect RH to move forward and potentially win the Arkansas Derby as well. So if AA was a classic bounce- what do you think happens to him next? Also, what would make GG potential for a bounce?

citation011 · Postby **citation011** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 10:16 pm

Joe-Also, a horse like High Limit- would he be a horse with the potential to bounce with such a strong BSF in the La Derby? And a step further- What is the fewest number of career races run prior to winning the Kentucky Derby? I continue to hear that only two preps as a three year old leading up to the Derby has only worked a few times.

Sam · Postby **Sam** » Wed Mar 23, 2005 11:08 pm

citation011 wrote:What is the fewest number of career races run prior to winning the Kentucky Derby?

I seem to recall a maiden winning in just his 3rd career start ... about 100 years ago. Can't tell you who that was though.

I want to say FuPeg only had 3 starts as a 3yo and 4 total starts prior to the Derby .. an allowance, the San Felipe win and the Wood loss. Don't quote me on it though.

In my lifetime (which admittedly is fairly short) I can't recall any horse winning with less than 3 starts, though I expect that to start changing soon as more and more cough trainers cough decide they'd rather coddle their expensive but fragile charges by training up to the race.

I remember when I first started watching racing there were set 'roads' you followed and you ran in EVERY prep on that road to prove you belong .. now they ship them all over hell and back and you are lucky if you see "that California horse" more than once in California.

Joe · Postby **Joe** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:26 am

I recall same as Sam with Fu Peg being only the lightest raced exception to most norms. I'm thinking the Derby was his 5th race or 6th.

Over the years there have been different thoughts on things and we've seen some of them broken. One was Graded Stakes placed at 2, that's been proven wrong as late as last year. Grade One winner was another one proved wrong, there are a whole bunch. Things have changed so much you almost have to go by no-rules.

Except for a few years over the last 20, I've found the Derby about as easy to pick as a MSW race. I did make good money last year (I think half of PA did) and I did on Alysheba. I would have bet Fu Peg at bigger odds, but as favorite you couldn't really bet him from my viewpoint.

I think the only real way to play it is to takes some risks, since the pool is so big, payoffs can get high, like the Breeder's Cup. I think it's more gambling than horseplaying for the most part.

LSB · Postby **LSB** » Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:39 am

Joe wrote:Over the years there have been different thoughts on things and we've seen some of them broken. One was Graded Stakes placed at 2, that's been proven wrong as late as last year. Grade One winner was another one proved wrong, there are a whole bunch. Things have changed so much you almost have to go by no-rules.

I think one of the reasons that the Derby is so hard to predict and to handicap is that, due to the enormity of the recent fields, the best horse on the day doesn't always get a shot at winning. No matter how good a horse is, he also has to get a decent trip and that leaves a great deal up to chance.