Why American Pharoah Won't Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

[Bobster]

Because he won't get the distance.

http://bobschless.wordpress.com/2014/11 ... cky-derby/

[stancaris]

Bobster: I read your article on American Pharaoh and found it very interesting. I agree with you that he is not a good choice at this time. If his major heritage is that of speed, it is not likely that he will wear the roses. Since his dam side is basically weak in regard to generating distance runners he probably is a poor proposition when it comes time to run 10 furlongs.

One question: What part of the pedigree do you consider the most important element in handicapping for the Derby? Is it the sire line? the broodmare sire line? the tail female line? or do all three of these positions give relatively the same influence?

[Bobster]

Thank you stancarist for the compliment. The most important thing is can the horse get the distance. For this you look first at the broodmare sire line, in particular the 2nd and 3rd dam sire. You then look at the dam line for distance also as well as for the class of the horse. The sire line will tell you how fast the horse is or how much brilliance he gives his offspring.