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 Post subject: Re: Dortmund
PostPosted: Mon Apr 06, 2015 8:27 pm 
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 4:48 pm
Posts: 6234
The Kentucky Derby has several variables that transforms the race into a "sui-generis" paradigm.
Lets take a look:

01. Churchill Downs is a profound surface and you need to have big solid feet.
02. 10 furlongs is far more than 9 furlongs.
03. 126 pounds is far more than 122 pounds.
04. A field of 20 horses is far more than 12 horses.
05. Keeping emotions under control is a huge variable that may help avoid
not noticing that the pace is going very slow, or so scintillatingly fast that the race
will unfold in an unpredictable fashion.
06. Running relaxed in an inherently agitated frenzy race is an art.
Have you noticed that horses who win the Derby, when their isolated replay
is shown, almost always you realize that in reality that horse wasn't struggling
at all, but running in a world to himself ---not in a melee.

Under the aforementioned circumstances, Dortmund seems to possess
what it takes in order to achieve a good performance but remember that
any slight variation on variables number 05 and 06 will end up having a say
on variables 01 thru 04.

If the race unfolds according to the aforementioned normal
variables the following names seems to be the more likely favorites to win:

Dortmund
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Firing Line
Bolo

If the race unfolds in an unexpected manner, the following names seems to be
the more likely candidates to produce a surprise:

International Star
Frosted
Mubtaahij
One Lucky Dane
Danzig Moon
Trecendur
El Kabeir


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 Post subject: Re: Dortmund
PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:30 am 
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Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2005 2:34 pm
Posts: 2180
Dortmund has been proving me wrong all spring. :-)
Would it be crazy to say I still am not sold on him!?!? There is just something about the way he moves. And, I keep looking at his size and wondering how does a big beast like that handle a stampede in the Derby, especially on the turn for home when some are dropping out of it and some are making a move!
I still think Pharoah is the better (although maybe I shouldn't make that comment until after the Arkansas Derby).


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