Your Derby pick...month by month

[Cree]

I propose we list our Derby favourite each month until May. It's always fun to see who people liked at the beginning of the Trail.

For January: My #1 is Ocho Ocho Ocho. With Upstart as a close 2nd.

Please share!

[dublino]

Until he gets beat or can't return in time American Pharaoh and then next best Texas Red.

[stancaris]

Upstart and Calculator both carry Buckpasser in the X passing position, a great indicator for the Ky Derby.

[Toccet02]

Texas Red.

[jellac]

Ocho Ocho Ocho and Texas Red. Two very different styles of running but both have shown they can finish strong at a classic distance going two turns on dirt at speed.

Ocho Ocho Ocho gets the tip of my hat between these two for the manner of his win at Delta where he really listened to his jockey and 'rated'. He can get away quickly enough to avoid a lot of the congestion of the Derby's early going - creating his own racing luck, and has shown patience in the thick of it near the front end/mid pack with a strong will to win and finishing kick to go with it. Mike Smith really taught him a lot in that Delta race...and most importantly he listened/paid attention like a much more mature horse.

Texas Red wants to get out the gate, size up his competition and then have something to run at/past; but when he's turned loose he can certainly cover a lot of ground with that long lanky stride. He looks a young horse but moves smoothly and he conserves his energy as well as avoiding injury in the melee that Derby has become. As he matures into his frame and length of body between now and May he may surprise folks with the increased power and strength of that sweeping/closing move of his. His connections may even be able to train him to being willing to go with the pack/launch from mid pack/mid-stretch rather than from the pack of the pack between now and Derby day - if that strategy doesn't take him out of his game. If not, everyone will know/expect him to be coming like a freight train towards the finish and he may find that move strategically blocked/made difficult. He won't be the only 'closer' on Derby Day, though he may be the only one coming from last.

[dublino]

Ocho3 looks a really small horse worry about him in a field of 20.
Backed him when he won the Delta.

Smith is still class, how long more will we be able to admire his talents?

[geowarrior]

Texas Red really reminds me of Afleet Alex.

Longshot - Punctuate.

[jellac]

Just watched the San Vicente race on video - wasn't where I could catch it yesterday.
So how do other Derby watchers see his finishing second at 7 furlongs?
I wasn't necessarily expecting him to win at that distance....unless the front running speed set some blazing fractions, which they didn't. Was surprised though to see him being whipped along once he broke through and seemed to be rolling with that large stride of his. Not sure he saw Lord Nelson speeding up on the outside, until late. That much smaller/light framed horse displayed a tremendous closing kick to snatch the win from Texas Red. It will be interesting how Texas Red does in the Risen Star at Fairgrounds as I believe that plays as a deeper dirt track than Santa Anita, though not as deep as Churchill. Everything about this horse's PP seems to indicate that anything short of a 1 1/16th is going to be challenging for him. One aspect I did about his race was his appearance/demeanor as shown on the video - he did not seem bothered by coming up through the pack and getting dirt in his face while trying to find an opening to run through.

[Cree]

I thought his race was good. He is really athletic for such a big horse. I also think it was rider's mistake Texas Red didn't get up for the win.
I like Texas Red moving forward.

[geowarrior]

I'm not worried about Texas Red not winning. He did well enough at the sprint which isn't his distance.

[jellac]

So, now, after today's races I'm trying to evaluate Far From Over, Dortmund in the mix - both showed the tenacity and will to overcome adversity/fight back today. Dortmund's rally back was the most amazing to watch but Far From Over recovered from his stumble and never seemed to doubt that he belonged at the front as the finish line loomed.

[Cree]

Dortmund is so big. I'd love to see him on the turf. Dortmund in a big field like the Derby, he may not get the room to run. I think Baffert's best horse is American Pharoah, but I don't know how long he'll hold together physically.

I like Far From Over, what a pedigree! I am just skeptical of Pletcher's ability to win the Derby. Sorry Todd, but it's true.

[Mahubah]

Dortmund is so big. I'd love to see him on the turf. Dortmund in a big field like the Derby, he may not get the room to run. I think Baffert's best horse is American Pharoah, but I don't know how long he'll hold together physically.

I like Far From Over, what a pedigree! I am just skeptical of Pletcher's ability to win the Derby. Sorry Todd, but it's true.

Gotta second that on Far From Over, though with his lack of seasoning he may be a better prospect for the Belmont than the Derby. I put a post up on him on my blog "Hoofprints" (http://www.americanclassicpedigrees.com/hoofprints).

[jellac]

Nice article you posted about Far From Over's pedigree Mahubah. Enjoyed reading it and being reminded of the many talented connections descending from
Courtly Dee. It will be interesting to see if he moves forward from the race. He certainly stepped up when things didn't go his way right from the start.

[geowarrior]

Far From Over was amazing. And apparently the times for the final quarter were solid, so maybe it was as good as it looked. I'm disappointed not to have seen Punctuate yet, but it will be fun to follow Far From Over.