Materiality and the Florida Derby

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Bobster
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Materiality and the Florida Derby

Postby Bobster » Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:53 am

Materiality was an impressive last out winner in the Islamorada Handicap at Gulfstream Park, earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. He is running in Saturday's Grade 1 Florida Derby.

http://regalbloodlines.com/…/five-3-year-old-january-winne…/

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Mahubah
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Re: Materiality and the Florida Derby

Postby Mahubah » Sun Mar 29, 2015 12:36 pm

He's got a decent chance of getting the Kentucky Derby trip, but he looked like a dead-tired horse after the Florida Derby and so did Upstart. Gulfstream's been decidedly slow all season, but a 39.79 final 3/8 off a moderate early pace and with near-ideal trips still doesn't inspire great confidence. I'll give Upstart marks for consistency, though; he's fired his shot every time so far this year. We'll see how Materiality comes out of his first big test.
"A man who was merely a man and said the sort of things Jesus said would not be a great moral teacher...You must make your choice. Either this man was, and is, the Son of God: or else a madman or something worse." C. S. Lewis

Cree
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Re: Materiality and the Florida Derby

Postby Cree » Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:35 pm

I am looking elsewhere for the KY Derby winner. I don't think he's nearly as good as Baffert's two.
I think Pletcher's two other colts, Carpe Diem and Far From Over, are the one's to watch. I love Far From Over's pedigree.

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TJ
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Re: Materiality and the Florida Derby

Postby TJ » Sun Mar 29, 2015 1:54 pm

I've been in awe of Materiality since I first saw him. He does things so easy and hasn't disappointed in his quick ascent up the ladder and stretching out. The problem with horses like him (un-raced at two) is why did he get to the races so late? Staying sound will be a key issue for this guy and others that went before him trying to beat the jinx of Apollo:>).
Upstart is also to be commended on his powerful race from the outside post. I might mention there was a claim of foul by the rider of Upstart, but it never reached the stewards in time, before the race was made official. The time of this race is very deceiving. The track was slow, dried out and very tiring and by the time the last race was run it was playing to a 30 track variant, which is equivalent to 6 seconds over par. That is why Materiality received the highest beyer of any 3YO to date, 110. BUT, a race like this over such a treacherous track, could certainly bring to life any old issues which prevented Materiality from being ready for his 2YO campaign. The good news is (barring misfortune) Materiality will return in 5 weeks....Pletcher's preferred time off between races. TJ

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Re: Materiality and the Florida Derby

Postby DDT » Mon Mar 30, 2015 8:19 am

You cannot use final times as an indication for assigning merit to any race without looking at how the time was achieved. As a reference for this look at Social Inclusion, he has not won a race since setting a track record in his second lifetime start and in that race he beat Honor Code. Materiality demonstrated his tenacity in the Florida Derby and if he runs on the first Saturday in May he could be the horse to beat. He won his first start in 110.32 and his second start in 149.32 and the nature of both of those wins indicates to me that he could have run faster if need be. I agree with TJ that if this horse had physical problems that kept him away from racing as a 2 year old then there might be a problem, but we do not know the reason for his delayed start, it could be as simple as physical maturity, I really do not care, if he is in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby he has a big chance to avenge his sire's only loss in the classics during his Triple Crown run.

In my opinion I believe they all are going to have to beat the 2 year old Champion, American Pharoah. It is still way to early to make a final selection. Dortmund remains undefeated and could win the Santa Anita Derby and if he does win it he will go to Churchill Downs as the favorite. He has already won a race over the track which is usually a big plus for any Derby starter.

DDT