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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 9:47 am 
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Maiden Special Weight

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Over the next few weeks I am going to pull out some pedigree stats pertaining to past winners of the Kentucky Derby. This may help you narrow down your selections, or you may just throw them out. Here are a couple:

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/04/10/i ... ee-angles/


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:06 pm 
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Leading Sire
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That Storm Cat info is a pretty interesting read, Bobster. I was just thinking about Storm Cat the other day. It wasn't so long ago that he and his sons seemed to be everywhere, but now I'm wondering what his lasting influence on the breed might actually be.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 1:47 pm 
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Restricted Stakes Winner

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Bobster: Your statement that 17 of the last 20 Derby winners carry Turn-To in their pedigrees is really not helpful in narrowing down the field much. I looked over the entries in last years Derby and 16 of the 19 runners carried Turn To in their pedigrees. There is no statistical advantage for the above because the impact value which is determined by dividing the percent of the winners by the percent of starters would be around 1.00. The percent of winners is 85% (17 of the last 20) and the percent of starters is around 85% which gives us a 1.00 iv. There is no advantage in having Turn To in ones pedigree based on the data above.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2015 2:21 pm 
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Grade III Winner
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This well-know caveat seems especially apt: "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results".

And time once again to post this seasonal reminder from the extravagantly informed Pan Zareta:

“Genetically, there are only two sire lines in the modern TB, Whalebone (1807) and non-Whalebone. They differ only at a single letter in the genetic code on the male-specific portion of the  Y chromosome. Females don't have that. It's unexpressed in neutered males. Sire line is a meaningless concept.

Inbreeding cannot be precisely determined from paper (pedigree) alone and cannot even be crudely estimated by doing no more than quantifying occurrences of major and minor 'bottleneck' sires.”

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"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 11:08 am 
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Restricted Stakes Winner

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Patuxet: You said, "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results."

If that is true then how do you account for the following: In the last 42 years 29 Derby winners ran a final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less or a final furlong in 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race. This translates into 69% of the winners. Since the percent of starters is approximately 30% the impact value for the above method is a solid 2.37 This method of using the past performances is a good and reliable indicator. Matter of fact I have used it every year for the last 15 years with solid results.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 3:20 pm 
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Darley line
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stancaris wrote:
Patuxet: You said, "Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results."

If that is true then how do you account for the following: In the last 42 years 29 Derby winners ran a final 3/8 of a mile in 37 4/5 or less or a final furlong in 12 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race. This translates into 69% of the winners. Since the percent of starters is approximately 30% the impact value for the above method is a solid 2.37 This method of using the past performances is a good and reliable indicator. Matter of fact I have used it every year for the last 15 years with solid results.

Hi Stan,
I'm thinking Patuxet was alluding to the stock market caveat, kind of like a joke? We know all we need is our folded up racing form (in out back pocket) to indicate horse racing futures. That's why these angles, statistics and past performances keep us rolling in money:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 9:10 pm 
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Grade III Winner
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Thanks for the translation, TJ. Since nearly 50 percent of U.S. households own mutual funds I assumed it was common knowledge that the SEC requires those funds to tell investors that a fund's past performance does not necessarily predict future results.

_________________
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 9:17 pm 
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Patuxet wrote:
Thanks for the translation, TJ. Since nearly 50 percent of U.S. households own mutual funds I assumed it was common knowledge that the SEC requires those funds to tell investors that a fund's past performance does not necessarily predict future results.

Hi Patuxet,
Those funds have nothing on us and a rolled up racing form in our back pocket...Cheers:>) TJ


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