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PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2015 7:42 pm 
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What a great points race this season, with 30 points being the lowest total as compared to 20 in previous years. Unless we get injuries or defections for another reason, we have a solid group of 3YO's in the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. Besides Baffert with 3 runners, Pletcher has 4 (Madefromlucky missed out after his 4th place finish in the Arkansas Derby, he's on the bubble). Zayat Stable owns 3, American Pharoah, El Kabeir and Mr. Z. Stonestreet Stable owns 2 in partnership, Stanford and Carpe Diem. Here's the current top twenty. TJ

2015 Kentucky Derby Points Standings

1 International Star Mike Maker 171 $940,979

2 Dortmund Bob Baffert 170 $1,230,000

3 Carpe Diem Todd Pletcher 164 $1,470,000

4 American Pharoah Bob Baffert 160 $1,410,000

5 Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 113 $776,200

6 Mubtaahij-IRE Mike de Kock 100 $1,400,000

7 Materiality Todd Pletcher 100 $632,028

8 El Kabeir John Terranova II 95 $720,792

9 Upstart Rick Violette, Jr. 76 $807,680

10 Far Right Ron Moquette 62 $585,906

11 Itsaknockout Todd Pletcher 60 $288,560

12 Firing Line Simon Callaghan 58 $530,000

13 Danzig Moon Mark Casse 45 $217,500

14 War Story Tom Amoss 44 $195,000

15 Tencendur George Weaver 41 $224,500

One Lucky Dane Bob Baffert 40 $200,000.....OUT

16 Stanford Todd Pletcher 40 $151,400

17 Mr. Z D. Wayne Lukas 34 $625,826

18 Ocho Ocho Ocho Jim Cassidy 30 $760,250

19 Bolo Carla Gaines 30 $214,980

Madefromlucky Todd Pletcher 30 $200,000.....OUT

20 Keen Ice Dale Romans 22 $136,520


The Bubble:
Frammento Nick Zito 20 $92,800
24 Bold Conquest Steve Asmussen 17 $192,176
25 The Truth or Else Kenny McPeek 11 $180,167
26 Metaboss Jeff Bonde 10 $136,450
27 Firespike Mike Maker 10 $51,816
28 Toasting Master Dale Romans 5 $31,000
29 Task Force Glory Mike Maker 5 $29,625
30 Cross the Line Jerry Hollendorfer 4 $120,000
31 Another Lemon Drop Phil Bauer 1 $25,500


Last edited by TJ on Fri Apr 24, 2015 12:40 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:46 am 
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One Lucky Dane is out of the Derby....Cree just posted the scoop in the handicapping section:-) I will edit this list as changes are made to the Derby field. Madefromlucky now draws into the Derby field. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:11 am 
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At first it sounded like One Lucky Dane had lost a shoe, and the ambulance was a precaution, but when he was cooling out they said he was noticeably uncomfortable. Hopefully it's something minor.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/13410


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 11:19 am 
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One Lucky Dane and Madefromlucky are both sons of Lookin At Lucky. Coincidence, I am sure. I think that One Lucky Dane had a better shot than Madefromlucky for the big race, but that's that.
It sounds like it was the start of a condylar fracture. It is strange that all 3 of Baffert's top sophomore colts have lost a shoe (Dortmund in a race, American Pharoah in a race). What is going on with the shoeing at Baffert's barn? Is this normal?
Would losing a shoe have led to One Lucky Dane's injury?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 1:02 pm 
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Cree wrote:
One Lucky Dane and Madefromlucky are both sons of Lookin At Lucky. Coincidence, I am sure. I think that One Lucky Dane had a better shot than Madefromlucky for the big race, but that's that.
It sounds like it was the start of a condylar fracture. It is strange that all 3 of Baffert's top sophomore colts have lost a shoe (Dortmund in a race, American Pharoah in a race). What is going on with the shoeing at Baffert's barn? Is this normal?
Would losing a shoe have led to One Lucky Dane's injury?

Hi Cree,
I was wondering the same thing. Though it isn't unusual for horses to lose a shoe during the running of a race (especially if the track is off), it would be nice to know if there is something else going on. Remember American Pharoah had issues with his feet as a 2YO, when he missed the BC Juvenile because of a deep foot bruise. Dortmund had a good reason to blow his shoe because he broke slow in that race....but then again his Daddy had terrible feet. Baffert's Chitu had hoof problems and lost his spider-bar shoe during a derby workout last year. I think that SA track is just too hard causing hoof abscess/ bruising, quarter cracks and any number of more serious injuries. Texas Red who trains over the SA track, also was sidelined because of hoof trouble. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 18, 2015 10:51 pm 
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One Lucky Dane is off the Derby trail. A fracture.


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 19, 2015 6:06 pm 
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Bolo's connections announced today he will run in the Derby. Bejarano will ride after One Great Dane was injured. Next to decide should be Ocho Ocho Ocho. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 10:45 am 
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Ocho Ocho Ocho's trainer confirmed he will start in Kentucky Derby 141. This leaves the field as is, barring any other misfortune as the current field trains up to the Derby. Keen Ice is on the bubbles with Frammento looking for two defections to draw in. TJ


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:22 am 
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Keen Ice in.
Madefromlucky out.
On the bubble, Frammento.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 25, 2015 4:25 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Cree wrote:
One Lucky Dane and Madefromlucky are both sons of Lookin At Lucky. Coincidence, I am sure. I think that One Lucky Dane had a better shot than Madefromlucky for the big race, but that's that.
It sounds like it was the start of a condylar fracture. It is strange that all 3 of Baffert's top sophomore colts have lost a shoe (Dortmund in a race, American Pharoah in a race). What is going on with the shoeing at Baffert's barn? Is this normal?
Would losing a shoe have led to One Lucky Dane's injury?

Hi Cree,
I was wondering the same thing. Though it isn't unusual for horses to lose a shoe during the running of a race (especially if the track is off), it would be nice to know if there is something else going on. Remember American Pharoah had issues with his feet as a 2YO, when he missed the BC Juvenile because of a deep foot bruise. Dortmund had a good reason to blow his shoe because he broke slow in that race....but then again his Daddy had terrible feet. Baffert's Chitu had hoof problems and lost his spider-bar shoe during a derby workout last year. I think that SA track is just too hard causing hoof abscess/ bruising, quarter cracks and any number of more serious injuries. Texas Red who trains over the SA track, also was sidelined because of hoof trouble. TJ

Hi Cree,
Remember when we spoke about them losing shoes and I said it would be nice to know if there is something else going on? Just read American Pharoah has a plate covering part of his sole on his left fore leg. Would be nice to know if Dortmund also wears a plate?? TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:09 am 
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It doesn't sound like the plate needs to be removed. He worked lights out today, sounded like he was just motoring along easy as can be.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:56 am 
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The field has been entered for Derby 141. There were 22 entries, the top twenty and two also eligibles, Frammento and surprise entrant Tale of Verve. The post positions will be draw this evening at 5:30. TJ


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:45 am 
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Tale of Verve? Who is he?

I was thinking about the shoe/hoof topic and I concluded that I'm not that worried about American Pharoah. After all, it was Baffert who brought Midnight Lute back from hoof problems to win his second Breeders Cup Sprint with only one intervening race during the year.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 11:23 am 
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geowarrior wrote:
Tale of Verve? Who is he?

I was thinking about the shoe/hoof topic and I concluded that I'm not that worried about American Pharoah. After all, it was Baffert who brought Midnight Lute back from hoof problems to win his second Breeders Cup Sprint with only one intervening race during the year.

Hi Geo,
Yes, probably nothing to worry about as AP's been racing with that protective pad all along. Tale of Verve just broke his maiden at Keeneland going 1 3/16ths miles. He came from last and drew clear at the wire with Joel Rosario on board. He's trained by Dallas Stewart who ran 2nd in the last two Kentucky Derbies at a big price breaking into both races when the bubble burst...something that needs to happen for Dallas one more time to get into this years Derby. TJ


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 5:12 pm 
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Here's the official entries and post positions for Kentucky Derby 141. TJ

11th RACE. (C11) Post 6:34PM Stakes
The 141st Running of THE KENTUCKY DERBY (Grade I)
PURSE $2,000,000 1 1/4 Mile
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

1 OCHO OCHO OCHO (L) Cassidy, J Trujillo, E 126
2 CARPE DIEM (L) E0 Pletcher, T Velazquez, J 126
3 MATERIALITY (L) E0 Pletcher, T Castellano, J 126
4 TENCENDUR (L) E0 Weaver, G Franco, M 126
5 DANZIG MOON (L) E0 Casse, M Leparoux, J 126
6 MUBTAAHIJ (IRE) E0 de Kock, M Soumillon, C 126
7 EL KABEIR (L) Terranova, II, J Borel, C 126
8 DORTMUND (L) E0 Baffert, B Garcia, M 126
9 BOLO (L) Gaines, C Bejarano, R 126
10 FIRING LINE (L) E3 Callaghan, S Stevens, G 126
11 STANFORD (L) E0 Pletcher, T Geroux, F 126
12 INTERNATIONAL STAR (L) E0 Maker, M Mena, M 126
13 ITSAKNOCKOUT (L) E0 Pletcher, T Saez, L 126
14 KEEN ICE (L) E0 Romans, D Desormeaux, K 126
15 FROSTED (L) E3 McLaughlin, K Rosario, J 126
16 WAR STORY (L) E0 Amoss, T Talamo, J 126
17 MR. Z (L) E0 Lukas, D Vazquez, R 126
18 AMERICAN PHAROAH (L) E0 Baffert, B Espinoza, V 126
19 UPSTART (L) E3 Violette, Jr., R Ortiz, J 126
20 FAR RIGHT (L) Moquett, R Smith, M 126
--Also Eligibles--
21 FRAMMENTO (L) E0 Zito, N Nakatani, C 126
22 TALE OF VERVE (L) E0 Stewart, D Hernandez, Jr, B 126


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