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PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 7:41 am 
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What does a fractional of 10 seconds flat for 1/8 of a mile really resonates
about a juvenile who achieves it.

How would you interpret it and or how would you extrapolate it to other
distances such as a mile?

Would earnestly appreciate your opinions.

:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:41 pm 
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Jorge wrote:
What does a fractional of 10 seconds flat for 1/8 of a mile really resonates
about a juvenile who achieves it.

How would you interpret it and or how would you extrapolate it to other
distances such as a mile?

Would earnestly appreciate your opinions.

:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|
:| :?: :shock: :idea: :|

Hi Jorge,
It's all in the eye of the beholder and remember all horsemen's eyes aren't created equal. To me it simply means the horse has speed for an 1/8th of a mile. It really can't help you judge what that horse will do beyond that. I prefer to see one work a 1/4 mile and put together a couple 11's and change, then see one go an 1/8th in 10. Personally I'm looking to buy a TB, not a quarter horse. Don't forget The Green Monkey went in 9 and change and that led to a bidding war, where the winner was the loser:>) Such a work has to be taken in context as well as what you are interested in buying, a fast win early type or a classic contender? The way the horse performed the work (pressured, easily), did the horse look to go on after the work or shut down quickly, does the horses breeding suggest early speed, was the horse tired or come off the track looking for more? If a horse bred to go long, works in 10 and comes back like he didn't do anything, you might want to follow that one back and watch him cool out. Each horse that works in 10 has a different story behind the work...some as simple as looking to bump up the price. The few that do it on their own and are bred to go long...they will get a lot of attention. It is just like handicapping, it's the way you personally decipher it, what you see in the way the horse is put together, the reaction to the work and what you thought you knew about the horse off its pedigree. I wouldn't look at one that went in 10 whipping and driving and came back with his head between his legs. Many people are beginning to look the other way when they work too fast, for fear they may not stand up to that kind of drilling so young in life and end up not getting to the races. Most top trainers know the consignors and the way they bring their stock up to a work for a sale, its' important knowledge to have and makes deciphering each work that much easier. Even with that, a top trainer that buys one that worked fast, usually will start all over with them, when they put them into training. Most won't continue on galloping and increase the work distance to find a race right out of the sale. The new trainer know's the horse has speed, now he must put that horses into his training program and build him up their way so they will be confident the horse has enough foundation under him to work beyond an 1/8th. When getting one ready to run you don't want to see them take off quickly for an 1/8th of a mile....you want to see them finish fast, then you built a racehorse. There's a lot more to bringing up baby then to run fast and turn left for an 1/8th of a mile:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 2:50 pm 
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Many good points TJ, I hate to see youngsters asked to go that quick for the sake of a big sale. Those horses invariably looked stressed and struggling. Give me 3/8ths in 36 and a smooth action, long effortless stride and maybe that horse is going to stay sound and is going to win some races. America has fabulous bloodlines and the 2 yr old in training circus ruins many promising animals...........it's a shame!


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 5:35 pm 
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I've not bought but one horse out of a 2 year old in training sale, but have had a few that probably could have worked really fast times. Very high acceleration and quickness....and then spit the bit out at four furlongs, and were lucky to break their maidens at bottom-level races. Seems their initial fast 2 and 3 works at the training farm were useless. I wouldn't know how to begin to select 2 year olds out of a sale and would agree with TJ and Wilf, there's SO much to consider, then the horse needs to be re-trained. I have some friends who are consigning, and they had a good March OBS, sold all their horses for over $200k apiece I think. They don't try to drill their babies and only buy two-turn types. They tell the trainers/agents that they don't try for the fastest works and hope that the horses will provide all the other indicators that attract buyers. It's very interesting. Seems like such a tough business. Both for consignors trying to select good prospects, keep them sound yet deliver a really attractive work, then for the buyers trying to distinguish between genuine talent or a Green Monkey.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 14, 2015 6:13 pm 
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Also, how many potential champions with pedigrees with a reasonable degree of stamina were ruined because they were trained to show a lot of speed early on in their development. All they knew were their trainers wanted them to run fast early on so they were never given a chance to show what they had around two turns.


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 9:44 am 
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The number doesn't mean much. If doing it easily, maybe. As for mile capabilities it says nothing.

jm

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 15, 2015 11:20 am 
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I have had good luck buying from the 2YO in training sales, but that may be partly due to my clients' budgets maxing out below $100,000. I bought 2 horses from the 2014 Fasig Midlantic Sale for $50,000 and $62,000 - both are now stakes winners, the first has earned $80,000 and the second has earned $175,000 - both still sound and in training. Neither worked in the top 25% timewise, but they both worked well - they both hit the ground lightly and had a low, fluid action.

I like the 2YO Sales because one can find value if your primary consideration is NOT time but how they move. Other 2YO purchases include a $30,000 OBS filly that won the Moccasin at Hollywood (also G2 placed, earned $160,000); a $60,000 Fasig Florida filly that won multiple stakes, G2 & G3 placed, earned $235,000; a $70,000 OBS colt that is a current runner & SW of $150,000; and a $100,000 OBS filly that won a G3, was 3 times G1 placed and earned $496,000. A number of other 2YO purchases may not have won stakes but have been sound and productive runners, more than 2/3 have earned more than their purchase prices.

One can find value at the 2YO Sales if one looks past the obvious.

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