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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 5:08 am 
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Maiden Special Weight

Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2014 11:28 am
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My Top 10 list based on a mixture of pedigree, racing talent, and pace scenario.

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/04/25/r ... by-top-10/


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 8:12 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Bobster

I find it really hard to believe that American Pharoah does not make your top 10 list. He ran the fastest 1 and 1/8th miles out of all 4 of the other major prep races and accomplished that time with plenty to spare, ears pricked and hand ridden. His work over the Churchill strip demonstrates, at least to me, that the track will not be a problem and that he comes into the Derby razor sharp. I will go on record here to say that indeed one of your top 10 selections may win, but without a major mishap American Pharoah will beat at least 9 of them to the wire.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 11:40 am 
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Grade III Winner
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Location: New England & Florida
American Pharoah's highly promising prep performances contrast sharply with the glaring lack of classic performances in the 31 horses which include his dam, Littleprincessemma, and her immediate family.

In the first fifteen only one of them, Tri Jet, his dam's great-grandsire on the bottom line, even managed, at age 5, to win a 10 f, stakes race, the Hawthorne Gold Cup.

In the next sixteen horses, farther back in Littleprincessemma's pedigree. we finally find a couple of signal classic winners, Northern Dancer and Secretariat, along with a pair of non-classic winners, Grenfall and Crozier, which did manage to get 10 furlongs.

A dam with merely 5 distance-capable horses out of 31, and none close up in her pedigree, gives me pause and good reason to reassess American Pharoah's chances in the Derby.

Personally I'm hoping for a Triple Crown this year and am on the look out for a Belmont capable horse. AP doesn't seem like one.

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"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 1:19 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Patuxet

I understand and somewhat agree with your doubts as to a Classic win in the cards for American Pharoah, however, that being said, I did not predict a win, I simply stated that I could not believe he did not make Bobster's top 10, and further stated that if one of those top 10 wins the Derby American Pharoah would out run at least 9 of them to the wire. Pedigree analysis is fine, however, you should consider the individual and his/her accomplishments along with the accomplishments of the ancestors involved. After all is said and done, it is impossible to know what chromosomes and genes are at work here based on names in a pedigree. It could be that I end up with egg on my face for my statements, it would not be the first time and as long as I am a fan of horse racing it certainly will not be the last time. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. I just hope they all have a safe trip every time they enter the starting gate, Classic race or not.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 26, 2015 4:00 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Posts: 418
Location: Texas
Hi DDT, Patuxet and Bobster.

Pretty intriguing, the contrast of this horse's performance (and how easy he's doing it) at 1 1/8 miles versus his female family's seeming lack of contribution to his route credentials. I can look at his races and how easy he is winning them and pick him to win the Derby. Then I look at the female family and just can't pick him to win although he's the one in all the years I've been using pedigree angles to choose a Derby bet who can make me eat my words. He's an interesting enigma. Of course his sire can throw route types so who knows. As to whether he will be in the top 10, I agree with DDT and for myself I'd think yes unless some jockey mistakes, traffic nightmares or other Kentucky Derby black swans just prove too much for him. So right now I have him between fourth and seventh. Maybe third and seventh. Glad to see everyone's insights, Bobsters and Putuxet and DDT. Super good thoughts on some of these threads.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 9:40 am 
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Leading Sire
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I'm surprised not to see Materiality on your top 10 list, Bobster. I would have thought his pedigree would suit at least.

Did you leave him off because of his lack of experience?


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 10:44 am 
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Grade III Winner
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On his blog Bobster explains his omission of AP thusly: "He rated easily against a 38-1 shot in the Arkansas Derby. He won’t have it that easy in the Derby and I don’t think he’ll take to it well. I also feel he’ll be backing up in his final 1/8 of a mile due to insufficient stamina in his distaff Family."

_________________
"He is pure air and fire and the dull elements of earth and water never appear in him; he is indeed a horse ..." Wm. Shakespeare - Henry V


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 27, 2015 11:21 am 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
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Location: New Jersey
Patuxet

As I posted, everyone is entitled to an opinion, I just thought it was strange that Bobster thinks the reigning 2 year old champion will not finish in the top 10, he could in fact finish last, I just do not think he will back up that far, just my opinion.

DDT


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