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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:01 pm 
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Darley line
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Behind American Pharaoh?

I'm thinking upstart would be a good play but I think the Borel horse could make a move as well. Haven't a hard time figuring out who will finish 2nd

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:14 pm 
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Breeder's Cup Winner

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Frosted? Firing Line?


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2015 3:48 pm 
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Starters Handicap

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Cree wrote:
Frosted? Firing Line?


my top exacta...should get a good price


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:32 am 
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Leading Sire
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I have this hunch Materiality is a Danza or a Curlin and will come in third.

As for second? Hmmm, perhaps American Pharoah?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 30, 2015 10:30 am 
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Grade I Winner

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Bdw said:
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.. I think the Borel horse could make a move as well.
referencing El Kabier in PP 8.

As a 2YO he was well regarded as "belonging"/being 'Derby' material. More recently I've heard the television commentators (and others in print) question whether as a 3YO his performances haven't shown him to be perhaps just a notch less in class than the company he's racing against this Saturday as a 3YO..... then I saw who his rider was and I had a thought:

(Hmmm)...I wondered if a "Bo-Rail" trip shortly out of the gate might not give him a shot if the presumed to be classier 3YOs have, after two turns been softened up a bit at the end. The leaders going into final turn will have had to deal with strong front runners setting what I am sure will be a very honest pace (Mr. Z and others), making the 'trip' thru the traffic of a 20 horse field, then surviving the imagined (my imagination here) battle royal between Dortmund and American Pharoah in the stretch (will Dortmund fight back after being headed/will we see AP reach deep or find another gear to accelerate away?)...with other likely contenders taking their shot from mid final turn to top of stretch/mid stretch and the 'closers' Keen Ice, Ocho Ocho Ocho and Far Right running the race of their career to catch the leader/last man standing/pieces...

It's going to be one heck of a Derby I think and I am glad the predicted weather is excellent - don't want the Derby to be won by the weatherman with so many deserving consideration/support and visions of a triple crown dancing in my head...

I have been lucky enough for someone based in Houston to see Ocho Ocho Ocho, Far Right, Mr. Z and American Pharoah run in person. I can come up with scenarios where any one of them wins except Mr Z - yet I have HUGE respect for Mr Z...as he runs his race so strongly out of the gate and even when passed at the top of the stretch or further down the stretch just strides from finish he does not know the word quit or stop. Ocho Ocho Ocho is a light framed/smaller horse than the 'large' Dortmund, American Pharoah and Tencendur (and other)s but he impressed me in how attentive and patient he was in winning the Delta Jackpot race...he had come from pretty far back to catch a strung out pack led by Mr. Z so a fast pace and then was kind of blocked in along the rail behind front runners mid-stretch. For a young horse (*then 2YO) he didn't exhibit any stress or anxiety, when in tight and didn't quit but waited patiently and listened to his jockey, moving out and thru tiring front runners and then accelerated away smoothly to win the race by lengths as Mr. Z lugged out. I don't believe Mike Smith did much more than tap him with the whip the entire stretch trip. Now he's 3YO and more experienced about racing in company....the dreaded "one hole" may not be a factor for a horse that can drop back, knowledgeable and comfortable with being asked to make his run later with acceleration in the final strides.

I'm looking for it to be an interesting race Saturday...haven't made up my mind how I'm going to bet the race yet but as big a fan as I am of American Pharoah, one of the things that makes this Derby exciting is the fact that it's shaping up to be a likely super contentious race with all manners of running style and potential strategies playing out.... Even if American Pharoah DOES exhibit a gear none of us have seen and wins by lengths in his smooth effortless looking way...the fight for second and third will be intense.


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PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 3:54 pm 
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Well...what a difference 24 hours makes....all that "thinking" about how the Kentucky Derby might unfold and first Stanford and now El Kabier are out...so Frammento draws in from the 'also eligibles' and in some ways we're back to square one in handicapping this race unless you're going with American Pharoah to win or WPS.


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PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:46 am 
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Leading Sire
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And now International Star is out too.


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