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 Post subject: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 2:43 pm 
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Horse of the Year
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Location: Lake City, Florida
Ok, gang, time to take your shot and see whether you've got a crystal ball or just another paperweight. Here's mine: http://www.weebly.com/weebly/main.php.

I wouldn't be at all upset if any of the other horses I mentioned won, especially American Pharaoh.

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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:24 pm 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2005 3:59 pm
Posts: 581
Location: Idaho
I'm going out on a limb and doing a 5 horse box with Danzig Moon,Dortmund, Firing Line, Frosted and Upstart.

I'm thinking AP will either win going away, or finish far up the track with no in between.

I'm basing my picks on pedigree analysis only. (Modern Conduit Mares)

An interesting tidbit. Family 14c tracing back to the immortal Pretty Polly has never had an American Classic Winner. Here's hoping that Firing Line breaks that streak.

Regards,
Shergar


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:36 pm 
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The heavy hitters - Dortmund and Am Pharaoh could be dominant, but heck it's the derby, so a bad trip can swallow both. So I'm backing Frosted and Firing Line with International Star to pick up the pieces late. Dortmunds prep at SA in the Lewis was a terrific duel - taking nothing away from Firing Line, but toughened him up. Stevens can amaze again.

terrific field - including the Dubai invader

jm

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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 8:48 pm 
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Grade III Winner

Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2005 3:49 pm
Posts: 1108
Location: Peoria, Illinois
Bolo, Frosted and Mubtaahij


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 9:27 pm 
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Joined: Wed Aug 27, 2008 10:29 am
Posts: 326
My selections:
1) Frosted
2) Materiality
3) Upstart
4) Danzig Moon

For rounding out the lower rungs of the Super, I'd toss in Mubtaahij and Keen Ice.

This assumes Carpe Diem will lose it in the paddock or starting gate, while Dortmund may get caught up in a quick early pace.
American Pharoah doesn't have the pedigree (breeding) to go 10f the first weekend of May, IMO.

Note that over the past 30 years of Derby, only twice did the top two betting choices complete the exacta. In 10 years, neither of them even ran in the trifecta. Wouldn't surpise me to see them both run out of the money. If I had to pick one of the two to finish ITM, it would be Dortmund for Place.

As an aside: I've been hearing the 'best field in decades' comment a lot lately. The data does not support this contention, as this year there are only 5 Grade I winners in the field, while 2010 and 2012 had nine Grade I winners each year (and 2007 had eight.) Seems to me that this year isn't much different than most ...


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Fri May 01, 2015 9:40 pm 
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2yo Maiden

Joined: Sun May 13, 2007 8:10 am
Posts: 81
Location: St. Paul, MN
Mubtaahij - Bolo - Dortmund.

"Mubtaahij" means "elated" in Arabic, which I hope to be shouting as I rush to the window waving my win ticket..

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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 12:52 am 
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Grade III Winner
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Joined: Fri Dec 01, 2006 10:36 pm
Posts: 1149
Location: New England & Florida
Dortmund
Mubtaahij
International Star
Frosted

I remember listening to the radio with my father when Count Fleet won the Derby. In all the subsequent years I really can't recall a deeper field of talented horses than the embarrassment of riches with which we're blessed this year. If a Triple Crown winner emerges I believe he'll have been as truly tested as any of his esteemed predecessors. Let the games begin!

Best of racing luck to all who make this Board a pleasure to visit.

Allison

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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 3:42 am 
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Starters Handicap

Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 5:35 am
Posts: 679
Frosted
Firing Line
Dortmund

glta


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 5:14 am 
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I think what is meant by it being a "best field" in awhile, is that the top 5-8 or so horses are incredibly difficult to separate. I read elsewhere that favourites won or were 2nd in all of the big prep races. So, although the field may not have as many G1 winners as the years you posted, the horses that won those G1 races are multiple G1 winners. I also think this is a testament to their soundness (possibly). We've lost some of the better horses leading up to Derby's before with injuries. Not so this year.

My choices:

Frosted
Upstart
Carpe Diem
Firing Line


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 5:18 am 
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Darley line
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Joined: Thu May 03, 2007 7:54 am
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Location: FL, NY
Mubtaahij
Frosted
Dortmund


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 5:50 am 
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I agree, Aug 27, about the accolades afforded this year's crop. Based on their 1 1/8 times, I don't see the winner breaking 2:01 or maybe even 2:02. Just sayin' .


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 7:11 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 1:35 pm
Posts: 2004
Location: New Jersey
Aug 27

I think the main reason that a majority of posters say that this year is one of the best Derby fields ever is not because of the number of Grade 1 winners entered but the fact that a legitimate case for winning it can be made for at least 15, or 75%, of the runners entered. Post position and the dynamics of the race are very important in any Derby, but this year it has more meaning, if that is possible. There are several speed horses to ensure a lively pace and the final time may in fact be one of the fastest Derbies on record, then again, the speed could set up the closers and produce a longshot winner and a boxcar trifecta and superfecta. In my opinion, this Derby could live up to the hype as to "The greatest 2 minutes in sport". We will see if it does live up to the hype, I just hope they all have a safe and trouble free trip.

DDT


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:33 am 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 11:26 am
Posts: 250
1. Materiality
2. Frosted
3. Firing Line

This only if AP gets stuck in traffic! :D

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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 10:52 am 
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Leading Sire
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Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 12:45 pm
Posts: 3572
Location: Spokane, WA
Dortmund
Frosted
Materiality
American Pharoah

I just went through my process of elimination and was left with 8 horses I think have a chance. Can't say I really have a whole lot of confidence in my picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 12:25 pm 
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Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:46 pm
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Location: Houston, Texas
After much too much thinking/doubting and then rethinking how the Derby might play out and who would win, be in contention and might win, etc. I came back to taking a more simple view -

There is a great deal of speed and it's not cheap speed. There are early speedsters who will not quit and will utter lay it down all the way around, there is closing speed/strong late quicks and acceleration among class contenders who do not mind stalking and there is classic class and battling brawn in American Pharoah/Dortmund....

I decided to go with the possibility (long shot) of a classy distance capable closer being able to pick up the pieces after all the favorites and short prices duke it out from start to mid stretch...

Although unable today to place a pari-mutual bet I am taking WPS @ $10across each on: Ocho Ocho Ocho, Keen Ice, Bolo and Far Right. I'm hoping if nothing else at their respective odds I might break even be a bit ahead if one or two finish 2nd or 3rd. If any one of them is thundering down the stretch for a win today you will hear me holler'n all the way from Houston where I'll be watching from my kitchen! Neighbors may call the police.....

Good luck everyone! May the best horse win and above all, may the horses and jocks come home in good health today!!


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