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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sat May 02, 2015 1:21 pm 
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Allowance Winner

Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 9:29 pm
Posts: 418
Location: Texas
I will be listening for you Jellac :)

I am not confident in my picks. I'm not that knowledgeable a handicapper anyway, do okay but still a lot to learn there. I pick Derby horses more on pedigree and that has worked out on occassion. This one however has me a little stumped. I initially picked Mubtaahij to win, now I'm split between him and American Pharoah. On paper American Pharoah's pedigree says he's not the strongest in his dam stamina-wise, but he might be a good enough freak as an individual to pull it out and I'm scared to bet against him. I may stick with Mubtaahij but kind of think Pharoah can do it so I actually bought win tickets for both.

So

1st. Mubtaahij
2ne. Am Pharoah
3rd. Materiality
4th. Dortmund
5th. Firing Line


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 Post subject: Re: Derby picks
PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 10:20 am 
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Grade I Winner

Joined: Thu Sep 16, 2004 6:46 pm
Posts: 1513
Location: Houston, Texas
Well of all the Derby "hopefuls" of yesterday it seemed to me that only Firing Line/Gary Stevens and American Pharoah/Victor Espinoza really ran "their" race yesterday....

Gary in pre-race interviews indicated he had learned something about Firing Line and Dortmund in their previous matchup and intended to run a slightly different race...and that strategy worked: he beat Dortmund for second place but got overtaken by the strategically positioned and stalking American Pharoah.

I was encouraged about my 'closers picking up pieces' betting strategy when the early calls put Bolo and Ocho Ocho Ocho in (for them) a surprisingly forward position mid-pack at the quarter....and I wasn't too worried about Far Right being the trailer as that is his running style...but where is "Mr Z"? I questioned/why isn't he in the lead/challenging for the lead? And just about then the .47 seconds for the half was called and the cameras gave a pan view of the field strung out/not really bunching up and I knew it was all over for my picks. I knew then that Dortmund, who can usually be counted on to go to the lead/challenge for it from the gate was just toddling along and the race was likely over except for the first three. Have to say Gary Stevens did exactly what he said he was going to do with Firing Line and it earned Firing Line a very respectable second place in the Derby. American Pharoah didn't just 'dust him' in overtaking for first heading for home: he kind of had to work at it.

Looking today at order of finish I see that Keen Ice at 7th was the best of my "closing picks" and the others joined with Mr Z to finish in the 12th positions on down. The best they could probably expect to do trying to close against such quality horses and soft early fractions on a track that became increasingly favorable to well favorites/front runners as the day wore on.

No screaming from my kitchen...no police called...and no 'winnings' to chortle over :(


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