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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 5:42 am 
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In November of last year I wrote an article on why I wouldn't be betting on American Pharoah to win the Kentucky Derby, mostly based on his distaff family being weak and that he wouldn't get the distance. And I was proven wrong, I should have bet on him. Yesterday I learned that a vastly talented horse can overcome a questionable pedigree and Kentucky Derby rules (Storm Cat angle) and win the race. Great talent trumped pedigree. Congratulations to Two Year Old and Kentucky Derby Champion, American Pharoah.


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 8:08 am 
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Bobster wrote:
In November of last year I wrote an article on why I wouldn't be betting on American Pharoah to win the Kentucky Derby, mostly based on his distaff family being weak and that he wouldn't get the distance. And I was proven wrong, I should have bet on him. Yesterday I learned that a vastly talented horse can overcome a questionable pedigree and Kentucky Derby rules (Storm Cat angle) and win the race. Great talent trumped pedigree. Congratulations to Two Year Old and Kentucky Derby Champion, American Pharoah.

Hi Bob,
American breeding is so pointed to speed, it is losing sight of stamina. So what we are left with is speed bred horses who, with a good trip, can outrun their pedigree. This neglect by breeders, to bring back stamina strong blood to American breeding, won't be going away. Expect to see this trend to continue and as years go by, expect to see more speed bred horses outrunning their pedigree. This is a product of many years of breeding to speed and I believe pedigrees will be less valid in future Derby's and actual past performances will overshadow pedigree's as American Pharoah so eloquently showed us yesterday. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 9:12 am 
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So help me understand something. Was part of American P's success the somewhat moderate fractions compared to other Derbys, meaning could he have won against stamina breds if the early pace had been faster? And/or is this potentially a component of the point system eliminating some sprinters who used to make it into the Derby, therefore creating less pace pressure than in previous years?


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 9:28 am 
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And while I am on the subject, the time of 2:03 is not very fast, and how would you interpret this anyone in light of a colt like Pharoah with his speed influences?

This stuff is interesting to me because I only have a couple of mares but we are breeding stamina to stamina, because as a yearling buyer I can't ever seem to afford those horses if they have any kind of decent physical and have high end quality parents. I seem to usually get outbid especially on colts. And a lot of that is because there just aren't that many stamina-bred yearlings top and bottom anyway. But this contrarian breeding approach may not be a best move...

So back to the race time, I guess Pharoah could have produced a faster time if the pace had been faster and he had somehow survived it. In his defense he was pretty wide on at least one and maybe two turns.

Thanks if anyone who understands pace like T.J. or others of you....what are your thoughts on the finishing time?


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 10:00 am 
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TJ

While I do agree that speed breeding is somewhat responsible for the lack of stamina in the breed as a whole, training methods or the lack of them are not only responsible for elite performance, but the training or lack of adequate training can also equate to the slow final times in recent years. 50 years ago no trainer would enter a horse in the Derby without a proper foundation regardless of its pedigree. Owners and breeders are also to blame for a lack of stamina breeding. Owners want instant return and speed breeding is a plus where racing is concerned, sprinting or routing and the market breeders continue to meet the demand. Secretariat's record time in the Derby and Belmont will more than likely never be matched and in my opinion genetic makeup will not be the main reason.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 10:07 am 
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I'm no expert, but the track had slowed down a bit by the Derby. Look at Private Zone's time compared to a 7 furlong dirt race earlier in the day.

I do think the top 3 hit their distance limit, and that could explain the last final quarter and the slow time overall. They were not going extremely fast during the race at all, which made it tough for any of the closers to come running. Firing Line was giving it his all after hounding Dortmund the whole way, I love how gritty that colt is, but I think his pedigree kicked in that last quarter. Pharoah won on class, he wasn't exactly coming home fast.

I"ve seen comments that Pharoah came out of the race a little tired. Hopefully he bounces back for the Preakness, but I do not see him winning at the mile and a half Belmont distance.


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PostPosted: Sun May 03, 2015 2:28 pm 
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I usually toss Baffert horses in the derby becuase baffert is really a speed trainer not a guy that's gonna get a horse that wants to run 7F to run 10F. But AP is just that talented. Sometimes you got to throw logic out the window

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PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 2:01 pm 
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So bdw, I guess that means you have not had a winner in any of Baffert's 4 Derby wins? I find it hard to bet against a guy that is a hell of a horse trainer and starts with some of the most talented stock of every crop. My only worry about betting on American Pharoah was the odds...I also played Dortmund.

The track definitely slowed down late in the day, the lack of cheap speed did not set it up for closers (International Star could have made for some more excitement in the stretch) and the top three may simply be very good horses that can carry their speed.

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PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 4:04 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Bobster wrote:
In November of last year I wrote an article on why I wouldn't be betting on American Pharoah to win the Kentucky Derby, mostly based on his distaff family being weak and that he wouldn't get the distance. And I was proven wrong, I should have bet on him. Yesterday I learned that a vastly talented horse can overcome a questionable pedigree and Kentucky Derby rules (Storm Cat angle) and win the race. Great talent trumped pedigree. Congratulations to Two Year Old and Kentucky Derby Champion, American Pharoah.

Hi Bob,
American breeding is so pointed to speed, it is losing sight of stamina. So what we are left with is speed bred horses who, with a good trip, can outrun their pedigree. This neglect by breeders, to bring back stamina strong blood to American breeding, won't be going away. Expect to see this trend to continue and as years go by, expect to see more speed bred horses outrunning their pedigree. This is a product of many years of breeding to speed and I believe pedigrees will be less valid in future Derby's and actual past performances will overshadow pedigree's as American Pharoah so eloquently showed us yesterday. TJ


I suspect we will find that Pioneerof the Nile turns out to be a pretty fair sire of stamina by American standards. He was certainly bred to go a distance himself, being by Empire Maker (Belmont Stakes) from stakes winner Star of Goshen, by Lord At War (Santa Anita Handicap). Granted, Star of Goshen was a quick mare, but POTN looked like he took more after his dad's side. In fact, I'm beginning to suspect that he probably needs some brilliance and power behind on the dam's side to yield his best; he was kind of a one-paced sort himself.

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PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 7:54 pm 
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Mahubah wrote:
TJ wrote:
Bobster wrote:
In November of last year I wrote an article on why I wouldn't be betting on American Pharoah to win the Kentucky Derby, mostly based on his distaff family being weak and that he wouldn't get the distance. And I was proven wrong, I should have bet on him. Yesterday I learned that a vastly talented horse can overcome a questionable pedigree and Kentucky Derby rules (Storm Cat angle) and win the race. Great talent trumped pedigree. Congratulations to Two Year Old and Kentucky Derby Champion, American Pharoah.

Hi Bob,
American breeding is so pointed to speed, it is losing sight of stamina. So what we are left with is speed bred horses who, with a good trip, can outrun their pedigree. This neglect by breeders, to bring back stamina strong blood to American breeding, won't be going away. Expect to see this trend to continue and as years go by, expect to see more speed bred horses outrunning their pedigree. This is a product of many years of breeding to speed and I believe pedigrees will be less valid in future Derby's and actual past performances will overshadow pedigree's as American Pharoah so eloquently showed us yesterday. TJ


I suspect we will find that Pioneerof the Nile turns out to be a pretty fair sire of stamina by American standards. He was certainly bred to go a distance himself, being by Empire Maker (Belmont Stakes) from stakes winner Star of Goshen, by Lord At War (Santa Anita Handicap). Granted, Star of Goshen was a quick mare, but POTN looked like he took more after his dad's side. In fact, I'm beginning to suspect that he probably needs some brilliance and power behind on the dam's side to yield his best; he was kind of a one-paced sort himself.

Hi Mahubah,
I certainly agree concerning Poineerof The Nile, I posted about him previously (in the handicapping section) stating Pioneerof The Nile has done well with his 3YO's and I believed he was one of those sires who improves his mares. He certainly did in American Pahroah's case, Littleprincessemma raced twice and never broke her maiden. He's all Daddy all right:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Mon May 04, 2015 8:50 pm 
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Mac wrote:
And while I am on the subject, the time of 2:03 is not very fast, and how would you interpret this anyone in light of a colt like Pharoah with his speed influences?

This stuff is interesting to me because I only have a couple of mares but we are breeding stamina to stamina, because as a yearling buyer I can't ever seem to afford those horses if they have any kind of decent physical and have high end quality parents. I seem to usually get outbid especially on colts. And a lot of that is because there just aren't that many stamina-bred yearlings top and bottom anyway. But this contrarian breeding approach may not be a best move...

So back to the race time, I guess Pharoah could have produced a faster time if the pace had been faster and he had somehow survived it. In his defense he was pretty wide on at least one and maybe two turns.

Thanks if anyone who understands pace like T.J. or others of you....what are your thoughts on the finishing time?


Hi Mac,
If those three would have really gotten into a speed battle, one or more of them would have wilted all together. Those jocks were watching one another's every move as they did everyday riding against each other at SA. No one was pushing until the final turn, they were able to get around there comfortably within themselves since no one else tried to challenge them. The 2nd place horse (Firing Line) drifted out under left handed whipping (so you know he wasn't going on) while actually brushing with American Pharoah. Dortmund who set the pace tired from his skirmish with Firing Line....and that battle opened the door for American Pharoah to prevail as both Firing Line and Dortmund retired. If the pace was faster, it possibly could have opened the door for a closer, but not a faster final time for AP who was all out to prevail....which I attribute to the distance.
The time was par for the course since the new Derby points system has been instituted which limits speedy types from getting into the Derby. Other then Palace Malice running off with his rider, we won't see those 3/4 fractions in 9 and change anymore. Also note that when Palace Malice set that fast pace, Orb, Golden Soul and Revolutionary all came from very far back to run 1,2,3. The last three Derby winner's, under the points system, were Orb (2:02.89), California Chrome 2:03.66 and American Pharoah 2:03.01. Expect to see more of these times in the future.
That being said, American Pharoah is a brilliant horse. For him to prevail by only a length, after seeing him destroy his competition in previous jaw dropping wins, tells me he really isn't a mile and a quarter horse. But he is a determined horse who digs down deep and tries his best every time he goes postward. I believe the Derby was his toughest assignment due to his pedigree and he passed that test gamely. The Preakness should be much easier for him and I expect to see one of his patented, jaw dropping runs. He needs to stay sound and bounce out of this race OK, as I expect winning the Derby took a lot out of him. Looking forward to seeing how Baffert brings him into the Preakness. TJ


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PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 7:01 am 
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I was most impressed by how kindly AP rated, and in reviewing the race, how wide he travelled. I have not seen the Trakus report but would expect he ran 40 feet further than Firing Line and 60 feet further than Dortmund. That translates into quite a few lengths.

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PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 7:26 am 
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I read 29 feet compared to Firing Line and 69 compared to Dortmund.

I thought AP's win was very professional. He has proven to be a handy horse, relaxes off the lead (which was a worry at some point), and he seems like he came out of the race alright.


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