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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 6:44 pm 
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jagger wrote:
Agree, geo. I think you have to go back 65 years to find a slower Preakness. Since the Preakness went to 1 3/16 miles in 1925, I think there were only a few dozen slower times in 90 chances. But, better than at least 2 Triple Crown winners is how some would look at it. Not me though. Perhaps the Derby and the Preakness times will put to rest all the hype about this year's crop being exceptional. He is just the best of a perhaps poorer than average crop.


Wow, very interesting and valid point. Before the times clicked in the Derby and Preakness, this group of sophomores looked like an outstanding group. Now it makes anyone ponder. Seems like one of two things: American Pharoah is a good horse with a good racing star, or his competition just got deflated.
Dortmund used to appear immense but now he looks a different horse. Firing Line ditto.
Still, I am still under the impression that this crop is better than what we are witnessing, but you are right, right now, they are performing sub-par. Should we wait until the Travers and Fall? Certainly we are witnessing a surprising outcome. But anyway, American Pharoah deserves his well earned merit for consistency since his juvenile season and no one can take that from him.


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:00 pm 
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i don't think you can rally gather much out of the time of the race it was the first sloppy preakness since 83. and i mean it wasn't just like oh this is a sloppy track it looked like some crap out of the Bible out there lol.


AT the end of the day, I think good horses pretty much will always beat bad horses, at this level. When you are talking G1's I will go over talent over breeding 10 out of 10 times and AP is just better than this crop of horses, and it's not a BAD crop.


Watching AP is alot like watching mike tyson in his prime; you can't fault AP for making his opponents look that bad, because he's that good. You got horses that were running 100+ beyers coming into the derby that he's literally running into the ground. That's not a bad crop, that's a bad ass horse

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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:12 pm 
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bdw0617 wrote:
i don't think you can rally gather much out of the time of the race it was the first sloppy preakness since 83. and i mean it wasn't just like oh this is a sloppy track it looked like some crap out of the Bible out there lol.


AT the end of the day, I think good horses pretty much will always beat bad horses, at this level. When you are talking G1's I will go over talent over breeding 10 out of 10 times and AP is just better than this crop of horses, and it's not a BAD crop.


Watching AP is alot like watching mike tyson in his prime; you can't fault AP for making his opponents look that bad, because he's that good. You got horses that were running 100+ beyers coming into the derby that he's literally running into the ground. That's not a bad crop, that's a bad ass horse

Hi bdw,
I agree with you....Dortmund was taken back and outside of horses because he didn't like the kickback, Firing Line is lucky he didn't get hurt...he was splay legged a jump out of the gate....he's gonna be sore tomorrow for sure. The track was playing very fast at Pimlico today....prior to the deluge the track variant was between 0-2. After the deluge it was 17....playing 3 and 2/5ths of a second slower then par. Take 3 and 2/5ths off his time and see what that leaves. I think he will get a high beyer and rag figure once again over that slow track. TJ


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:25 pm 
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Here's the replay. TJ
http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?tra ... ountry=USA


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PostPosted: Sat May 16, 2015 7:28 pm 
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TJ wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
I really think that's the key. I think as long as he doesn't over think the belmont, i think AP has about a 75% chance of winning the race.

I think if he comes out and just says look, I got hte best horse, beat me. I think he SHOULD win. I think that Empire maker in his blood will get him the distance.

As long as he doesn't pull a steward Elliot or start trying to be the smartest jockey in the room or anything

Hi bdw,
I felt Victor got California Chrome beat in the TC because he didn't take the lead....then got in a jackpot behind horses he could have easily outrun early. The last three TC winners I've seen, all took it to them out of the gate in the Preakness and again in the Belmont Stakes. If he rides him the same way....I don't want to mention what we're all thinking....just because:>) TJ



Forgetting perhaps that Chrome was injured right out of the gate?

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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 5:28 am 
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Sailor Kenshin wrote:
TJ wrote:
bdw0617 wrote:
I really think that's the key. I think as long as he doesn't over think the belmont, i think AP has about a 75% chance of winning the race.

I think if he comes out and just says look, I got hte best horse, beat me. I think he SHOULD win. I think that Empire maker in his blood will get him the distance.

As long as he doesn't pull a steward Elliot or start trying to be the smartest jockey in the room or anything

Hi bdw,
I felt Victor got California Chrome beat in the TC because he didn't take the lead....then got in a jackpot behind horses he could have easily outrun early. The last three TC winners I've seen, all took it to them out of the gate in the Preakness and again in the Belmont Stakes. If he rides him the same way....I don't want to mention what we're all thinking....just because:>) TJ



Forgetting perhaps that Chrome was injured right out of the gate?

Hi Sailor,
That was a very minor injury....he grabbed a quarter and it wasn't deep. In reality he didn't grab his own quarter, Matterhorn stepped on him. When a horse grabs his own quarter it could go much deeper and could rip the bulb of the hoof off, in that case it would have an impact. In Vic's own words “I noticed when I jumped off him he was bleeding a little bit in the right front,” Espinoza said. “Maybe that affected him?” Watch the replay and see when Espinoza should have taken the lead after a very good start, but he opted not to. If he did, Chrome would have been in front and not behind a wall of horses creating an annoying and stinging sandy kickback. This was an unusual spot for CC to be in and such a spot could make a horse reluctant to go on. If Vic went to the lead after his good start, he never would have been in that jackpot he put him in. As it turned out, he had to take CC back and around to get out of the pocket he was in and bring CC 4-5 wide which in my opinion might have accounted for the length and 3/4's he was beaten? Take a look and see what your thoughts are? TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SflE7wkKjEo


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PostPosted: Sun May 17, 2015 7:46 am 
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As slow as some thought America Pharoah's Preakness was.....he again maintained a triple digit beyer of 102.
It proved one thing, he is is a superior mudder. It also proved Dortmund is not...after a string of triple digits beyers over a fast track, Dortmund dropped to approximately a 70 beyer....lowest of his career. Firing line was eased after a very bad start and Steven's said he was sulking before he was put in the gate due to the heavy rains hitting him in the face. All the riders were water logged....Steven's who was 120 lbs. going into the race, came out with his boots full of water and and his weight was a water soaked 135 lbs. Victor Espinoza gained water weight and said his boots were also full of water, obviously AP was carrying more weight then he was carrying when he left the paddock.
By contrast of track conditions, earlier in the day when Fame and Power impressively won the 1-1/16th mile Sir Barton Stakes in fast time....4/5ths of a second off the track record. He returned a 99 beyer....why? Because the track was playing very fast at that time of day....his race variant was rated a 2, equivalent to 2/5ths of a second off par, while the Preakness race variant was 17, equivalent to 3 and 2/5ths seconds off par. TJ


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 9:04 am 
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The good horses in the race were beaten by the weather. The others were beaten by American Pharoah.


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PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 6:17 pm 
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geowarrior wrote:
The good horses in the race were beaten by the weather. The others were beaten by American Pharoah.


The really good ones don't care what the track conditions are -- they run regardless.

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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 7:55 am 
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When was the last time Materiality raced? Wasn't it the Fla Derby in March. He has had over 60 days rest since his last race and will go into the Belmont at 1 1/2 miles without racing in two months. Do horses ever win the Belmont off such a layoff?


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 8:12 am 
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My mistake above. He raced in the Ky Derby. That makes him a definite contender


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 10:14 am 
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Mahubah wrote:
geowarrior wrote:
The good horses in the race were beaten by the weather. The others were beaten by American Pharoah.


The really good ones don't care what the track conditions are -- they run regardless.


Hi Mahubah,

Generally I would agree with you, but in this case I thought conditions were sufficiently extreme to compromise the chances of some of the better horses.


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PostPosted: Tue May 19, 2015 11:40 am 
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geowarrior wrote:
Mahubah wrote:
geowarrior wrote:
The good horses in the race were beaten by the weather. The others were beaten by American Pharoah.


The really good ones don't care what the track conditions are -- they run regardless.


Hi Mahubah,

Generally I would agree with you, but in this case I thought conditions were sufficiently extreme to compromise the chances of some of the better horses.


True, but to my mind that simply confirms American Pharoah's superiority to this point, since he could handle the conditions and they could not. After all, he had already beaten the main threats on a fast surface; his demonstration in the Preakness adds versatility regarding surface conditions to his virtues.

Ultimately, American Pharoah's times in the Derby and Preakness matter little. The time that matters is historical time, when his career is complete and we have a better picture of how his overall record stacks up against those of past greats.

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