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 Post subject: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 8:35 am 
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Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? There have been some that came late, but they were already underway on the turn, wide and losing ground. I'm just thinking if a jock on a horse that rates well found a good spot on the track, away from kickback, stayed within shouting distance, and pulled the trigger entering the stretch whether he might not finish with enough of a flurry to get there as the front/stalk speed came back to him?

I see that 'high cruising speed' coming to a grinding halt at the mile and a half distance.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 3:13 pm 
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Joltman wrote:
Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? There have been some that came late, but they were already underway on the turn, wide and losing ground. I'm just thinking if a jock on a horse that rates well found a good spot on the track, away from kickback, stayed within shouting distance, and pulled the trigger entering the stretch whether he might not finish with enough of a flurry to get there as the front/stalk speed came back to him?

I see that 'high cruising speed' coming to a grinding halt at the mile and a half distance.

jm

Hi Jolt,
One of the most phenomenal Belmont's showing us, not only the edge a front runner gets under a well judged and confident ride, but also demonstrates a rider waiting too long in the Belmont Stakes. This happened in the 1976 renewal when Bold Forbes actually stole the Belmont Stakes. McKenzie Bridge under Darrel McHargue (who was not a regular rider at Belmont Park) came with a late flurry at the wire while falling short, as Angel Cordero carried Bold Forbes over the line. Bold Forbes was probably similarly thought of going into his Belmont Stakes as American Pharoah is going into his, due to their breeding. Bold Forbes was by Irish Castle a sire who was noted for producing sprinters. AP gets his distance rap because of his dams side. My concern with AP is his rider, who has a bad record at Belmont Park....if AP and Victor use Cordero's 1976 blue print, he could get the job done. Though it takes a rider like Cordero to ride a race as well judged and perfectly as he did with Bold Forbes....so Victor needs to put his thinking cap on. Cordero was the best at playing possum....but many times riders are so sure the speed will stop they allow them an uncontested lead, some horses fold as expected, others get brave. TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BqqZdoUQyQI


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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:45 am 
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The big thing about moving too early at Belmont isn't just using up too much energy too soon; it's that those turns are BIG, and a horse that moves outside for the kind of sweeping move partway through the final turn that's often a winner at one-mile ovals loses a lot more ground at Belmont than elsewhere. The big advantage that a good front runner has is being able to save ground while selecting the most advantageous path for how the track is playing, and this is why the Belmont has been won as often as not by a horse able to control the pace.

The best place for a closer to get rolling seems to be immediately after straightening into the stretch---much later than that, and if the speed up front is at all honest, the closer won't be able to make up the ground. Personally, I think American Pharoah has a big shot provided he breaks cleanly and gets into a steady tempo early: http://www.americanclassicpedigrees.com/hoofprints.

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:53 pm 
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Aptitude?

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 1:29 pm 
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I agree with Mahubah that the top of the stretch is the place to push the pedal, and if the closers can actually stay in touch, then wait that long they may get a piece of it. I see Materiality being the biggest threat to AP in terms of engaging him, probably on the turn (too early IMHO). Johnny V knows what he's doing tho. If nobody engages AP is probably home free - if he does, I think he may well get beat. If you look at the lines of Mubtaahij, they all say "Tracked leaders..." He will be tracking, has the ability to run 2 miles if he wants to and is a huge threat.

jm

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:37 pm 
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Joltman wrote:
Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? ....

jm


I can think of the riders on the also rans that were behind Secretariat...

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:43 pm 
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madelyn wrote:
Joltman wrote:
Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? ....

jm


I can think of the riders on the also rans that were behind Secretariat...


If there was a move any of those horses could have made that would have threatened Secretariat, it would probably have been to kick him at the post. Sham was exhausted, and not one of the other three could stagger home in less than 2:30 over a track that was playing lightning fast. Not that Secretariat couldn't have made hash of much better horses, but the three that trailed him in belonged in allowance races, if that.

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 5:39 pm 
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Mahubah wrote:
madelyn wrote:
Joltman wrote:
Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? ....

jm


I can think of the riders on the also rans that were behind Secretariat...


If there was a move any of those horses could have made that would have threatened Secretariat, it would probably have been to kick him at the post. Sham was exhausted, and not one of the other three could stagger home in less than 2:30 over a track that was playing lightning fast. Not that Secretariat couldn't have made hash of much better horses, but the three that trailed him in belonged in allowance races, if that.




Sham should have had a runnerup triple crown. What happened was after finishing 2nd in the Derby and the Preakness, Sham's trainer ordered the rider to stay right with Secretariat no matter what. The pace was way too fast (1;09 and change for 6F). Secretariat and Sham were running like it was a sprint instead of 1.5 miles. Sham, like just about any other horse would have, tired and finished last. If Sham ran his normal race, then I am sure that he would have finished 2nd again.

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:27 pm 
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Sham probably wins the triple crown..35 or so of the last 40 years. I don't see him beating Spectacular bid, I don't see him beating alydar / affirmed 3 times, I don't see him beating easy goer at belmont, someone else would have thrown a wow race in there sometimes, but sham was really really good.


Without no sham there is no "secretariat". I mean outside of the Belmont it's not like he was winning those races by 10 lengths. He HAD to run that fast to win. If Big red runs a 2 min flat Kentucky derby he doesn't' win the triple crown. And that's FAST.

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:36 pm 
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Mahubah wrote:
madelyn wrote:
Joltman wrote:
Alas, as the Belmont looms, I recall the many marginal (at best) rides by jocks of some of the top horses who all moved too soon at the mile and a half track and distance. Some have lost Triple Crown bids, running it like a mile and an eighth.

So my question is - has any jock lost the Belmont waiting TOO long before making a closing move? ....

jm


I can think of the riders on the also rans that were behind Secretariat...


If there was a move any of those horses could have made that would have threatened Secretariat, it would probably have been to kick him at the post. Sham was exhausted, and not one of the other three could stagger home in less than 2:30 over a track that was playing lightning fast. Not that Secretariat couldn't have made hash of much better horses, but the three that trailed him in belonged in allowance races, if that.



My Gallant beat forego and our native in the blue grass
Twice a prince won the JCGC


that was a pretty damn good field all things considered. It had the first, 2nd and third place horses from the derby

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 Post subject: Re: Waiting too Long
PostPosted: Fri Jun 26, 2015 7:43 pm 
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bdw0617 wrote:
My Gallant beat forego and our native in the blue grass
Twice a prince won the JCGC


that was a pretty damn good field all things considered. It had the first, 2nd and third place horses from the derby


My Gallant was a better horse than I gave him credit for, but the Blue Grass was his only stakes win and his record suggests that 9F was as much as he really wanted (Forego, a slow-maturing horse who didn't win his first stakes race until after Secretariat retired, beat him 3/4 of a length at 9F, 5 lengths at 9.5F in the fall, conceding weight in both). Twice a Prince never won a stakes and was a clunk-up third in the JCGC; sure, he finished ahead of Our Native and Riva Ridge, but both were clearly way off their best form from a reading of the race chart. Our Native, the Derby third, did not run in the Belmont; the other runner in the field of five was Private Smiles, another horse who never won a stakes and in fact won only once in 19 starts.

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