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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 8:18 am 
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Usually by now there are massive posts about the pedigrees of this year's entries and all sorts of fun information. Where have all the geeks gone??

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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 9:32 am 
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madelyn wrote:
Usually by now there are massive posts about the pedigrees of this year's entries and all sorts of fun information. Where have all the geeks gone??

Hi Madelyn,
I was kind of thinking the same thing:>) We have some info posted in the handicapping section, including some workout videos and the past performances for all the Derby probables which will automatically update when the post positions and entries are drawn Wednesday. Sadly our favorite poster at Derby time, who we all were interested in hearing his opinion, Bill from WA, seems not to with us anymore:>( TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 10:16 am 
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Thanks TJ I saw the bits in there but usually there are Derby threads all over the place by now.

So who do you think is really ideally BRED to run the mile and a quarter with no other factors?

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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 10:25 am 
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With the results from last year still fresh in my mind, I'm afraid 'pedigree' no longer serves as such a foundational element, with regard to handicapping distance races on the dirt in America.
I hope I am wrong, but if we see another Kty Deby winner whose Dam Sire avg winning distance is under 6.5 furlongs, then the days of stamina are firmly behind us.

To (maybe) get the fever / discussion started, here are my preliminary top five:
Mohaymen
Destin
Exaggerator
My Man Sam
Danzing Candy

I put DC in there reluctantly, as he is pure sprinter pedigree imho, but I see little pace this year, and he might 'hang around' for a piece.


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 11:57 am 
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madelyn wrote:
Thanks TJ I saw the bits in there but usually there are Derby threads all over the place by now.

So who do you think is really ideally BRED to run the mile and a quarter with no other factors?

Hi Madelyn,
Yes, I agree...not so much love this year for the Derby:>) I tend to agree with Aug. 27...after all these years of breeding for speed, it's catchin up to these 4 generation pedigree profiles and it seems speed bred horses are beginning to outrun their pedigree's. If I had to look at it old school and answer your question off distance bloodlines...who is really BRED to run the mile and a quarter I would have to say Gun Runner, Brody's Cause, Lani, Destin and Mor Spirit.
Considering recent Derby's and of course last seasons, Triple Crown winner...breeding may not be as important a factor as it once was...possible current form now trumps everything and Nyquist with his undefeated form could very well get the roses. Not easy to determine now since pace and post positions will play an important role in figuring out this puzzle...so to will track condition, as we have a couple outstanding mud runners in this field. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 12:25 pm 
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:D Glad you posted, TJ, I was about to question "No love for Nyquist??"

I personally don't pick a Derby horse until the day of the race so much can happen in the week leading up to. Uncharacteristically, I had $50 on Street Sense when he won because I was just so IMPRESSED with his BC Juvie win. With 19 or 20 horses across the field it really is a free for all until it sorts out, usually around the 2nd turn. I don't know if, in the case of American Pharoah, his calm and intelligence trumped all and he really utilized the talent he had in the most meaningful way. OTOH Empire Maker was a classic horse - won the freaking Belmont. I have spent considerable time staring at AP's pedigree - with so blah a damline I wondered in advance if there would be that much interest in him at stud. Of course having now won the Triple Crown he evidently has something like the right genes turned on from his group of ancestors.

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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 12:50 pm 
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madelyn wrote:
:D Glad you posted, TJ, I was about to question "No love for Nyquist??"

I personally don't pick a Derby horse until the day of the race so much can happen in the week leading up to. Uncharacteristically, I had $50 on Street Sense when he won because I was just so IMPRESSED with his BC Juvie win. With 19 or 20 horses across the field it really is a free for all until it sorts out, usually around the 2nd turn. I don't know if, in the case of American Pharoah, his calm and intelligence trumped all and he really utilized the talent he had in the most meaningful way. OTOH Empire Maker was a classic horse - won the freaking Belmont. I have spent considerable time staring at AP's pedigree - with so blah a damline I wondered in advance if there would be that much interest in him at stud. Of course having now won the Triple Crown he evidently has something like the right genes turned on from his group of ancestors.

Hi Madelyn,
I too will post my choices after I post the entries with riders and post positions this Wednesday. Those horses I mentioned today seem to be bred well for the mile and a quarter. Ah yes, Street Sense I remember well. I too bet him that year...he was training great at Palm Meadows that year and set a stake record in his Tampa Bay Derby win (that record was broken this season when Destin won this years TBD). In case you're intersted, there's a maiden in the Derby bred quite close to the way Street Sense was bred...Trojan Nation, he's by the same sire Street Cry and both also carry the RF to Natalma through siblings Raise The Standard and Northern Dancer. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 1:08 pm 
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Here's Nyquist's final Derby workout in company with GR I winner Ralis...he went a mile in 1:41 with Mario Gutierrez on board, easily shutting down his workmate. TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNarO2mcHgM


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 9:09 pm 
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madelyn wrote:
Thanks TJ I saw the bits in there but usually there are Derby threads all over the place by now.

So who do you think is really ideally BRED to run the mile and a quarter with no other factors?


Strictly on breeding: Exaggerator and Majesto.

Majesto is by a 10-f specialist, half to an Arkansas Derby winner, out of a mare by a Whitney Handicap winner (and also broodmare sire of quality 12f horse Big Blue Kitten). Although he should move forward off the Florida Derby, I expect he'll be better as he matures.

Exaggerator is by a horse who has stamina top and bottom (top from the No Class family, bottom from quality stamina sources Deputy Minister and Sir Ivor) and who sired a Belmont winner, out of a mare who is by a speed sire, her dam being by a top quality middle-distance sire and then deep stamina further back. He couldn't get by Nyquist at 7f, but watch the Fl and SA Derbies....where Nyquist is wandering all over the track in the stretch, Exaggerator keeps going and gets the job done with style. If he doesn't get stuck at the back and behind a wall of horses, he'll be in the mix at the end.

Brody's Cause and Destin are interesting. Although Giant's Causeway can get you anything from a 5f sprinter to a top-quality chaser, most of his get tend to top out at 9f unless they have serious stamina on the dam's side OR they are running on grass in Europe (where they are frequently successful up to 12f). Neither of these two have the kind of female family that makes me think they'll be successful longer than 9f in a week's time. Destin might when he's older--Dream of Summer was a late-maturing mare--and Brody's Cause doesn't inspire me for 10f on dirt. I'd like to see what he can do on grass.

I don't rate Mohaymen at 10f. I think he was exposed in the Florida Derby, and his breeding for the first 3 generations are horses who want to top out at 9f. Tapit gets mostly 8-9f as an upper limit. Tonalist, out of a Pleasant Colony mare, is the exception who proves the rule. Dixie Union topped out at 9f, again with Belmont winner Union Rags the exception proving the rule. Honour and Glory is a useful sire of milers. Also, as unquestionably good a stallion as he is, Tapit gets a lot of horses who mature earlier than their peers and then don't develop as much when they're older (compare his ratio of 2yo talent to 4-and-up talent), so they get caught by other horses who take longer. Frosted is a perfect case in point there. I think Mohaymen is a good horse who will earn a lot of money for his owners, but not in a 10f race after how badly he was beaten in his first race longer than a mile.

Nyquist has answered all challenges so far, but I don't like how he was wandering all over the stretch in the Florida Derby. That to me looked like he was reaching his limit. He's the chalk and deservedly so, but I don't know that I'd put one red penny on him. Uncle Mo's dam is stamina-laden (Arch/Dixieland Band/Cyane), but Nyquist's damline is NOT.


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 9:31 pm 
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I like Creator, as his dam is Peruvian, and won at classic distances. He may be the one to give Tapit a Derby Winner.


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PostPosted: Sun May 01, 2016 11:22 pm 
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I think Suddenbreakingnews has a pedigree for 10 furlongs too.


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 6:11 am 
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Pedigree-wise, Lani and Oscar Nominated should have no problem with 10f. {I thought that about War Story and Keen Ice last year, though!}

Trojan and Majesto are two long shots with good stasmina breeding, IMO.


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 7:05 am 
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http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sp ... /83792802/


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 7:07 am 
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I watched training Saturday morning at Churchill:

Exaggerator & Brody's Cause both worked well and galloped out well.
Mor Spirit is not a good moving horse (short strides, head down low) but they say he always moves like that.
Lani was behaving better but is still something of a rogue; if it was 1 1/2 miles he might be the choice as he gallops 2 + miles daily.
Gun Runner does nothing wrong, moves well on the track.
Creator is very impressive galloping; long stride, carrying great weight, big strong horse.

Right now my picks are Creator (seems to be maturing at the right time and plenty of speed to set up his closing style) and Exaggerator (pedigree, performance and if any moisture..!) with Nyquist right there with them.

I did not see Majesto, who intrigues me based on performance (excellent 2nd to Nyquist off a layoff), pedigree (bred for the distance), and being under the radar. Would like to see him gallop or breeze.

Looking forward to watching "The Works" on TVG to solidify my choices!

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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 9:56 am 
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It's about time for my "has no chance list". It's a little harder now with the new rules about how points are gained to get into the Derby. In the past, horses who really were milers at best could get in, but no more. I've seen some horses in the posts above that will be on my "no chance" list. For now though, based purely on pedigree with leanings towards the dam's side of the pedigree using Bill's system, my picks are Gun Runner, Nyquist and Exaggerator and honorable mention to Brody's Cause. Stay tuned.

And thanks to Madelyn for starting this thread.


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