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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 10:06 am 
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I like the fact that Nyquist worked a mile - but not so much at Kee. Does he know CD? Anything you can do to relax the horse with the environs, the better. Seemed to me like he was on the muscle - not a good thing at the Derby.

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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 12:57 pm 
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Thank you, Madelyn!! I've been waiting for some good threads to read, too! :D

I had Nyquist on my radar since the Breeder's Cup. Going into another Derby with an undefeated favorite... this race, for me, will be the proof of whether he's a Crown contender, if he wins and wins handily. History has shown that TC winners seem to come in groups... so I'm hoping. :D And hope that he stays steady down the home stretch...

I like Creator and Exaggerator, also. Creator's win in the Arkansas Derby has me wondering if he'll pull off another great late-stretch run.

Bays vs. grays... can't wait! :mrgreen:


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 2:19 pm 
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da hossman wrote:
I watched training Saturday morning at Churchill:

Exaggerator & Brody's Cause both worked well and galloped out well.
Mor Spirit is not a good moving horse (short strides, head down low) but they say he always moves like that.
Lani was behaving better but is still something of a rogue; if it was 1 1/2 miles he might be the choice as he gallops 2 + miles daily.
Gun Runner does nothing wrong, moves well on the track.
Creator is very impressive galloping; long stride, carrying great weight, big strong horse.

Right now my picks are Creator (seems to be maturing at the right time and plenty of speed to set up his closing style) and Exaggerator (pedigree, performance and if any moisture..!) with Nyquist right there with them.

I did not see Majesto, who intrigues me based on performance (excellent 2nd to Nyquist off a layoff), pedigree (bred for the distance), and being under the radar. Would like to see him gallop or breeze.

Looking forward to watching "The Works" on TVG to solidify my choices!

Hi Hoss,
How you doin?...here's Majesto's last breeze 4/29. Castellano was in the irons (5/8ths 1:01.40)...but Castellano's committed to ride Destin.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lv8fHOj ... bftC230-oh
They sent Lani 5 miles today...jog, lope, gallop and went to the gate, at the end of his 4th mile, he got his final 1/4 in 25 and change on Mike Welsch's watch and he still gives the rider fits, he should get hazardous duty pay:>) Watch it below.....you can catch all the other works at this link also. TJ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0kVv7CAOsU


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 5:07 pm 
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Lani--depends if he decides to show up that day.

Oscar Nominated--my pick for the Virginia Derby.

Creator--not high on him for the same reason I'm not too high on Exaggerator....no speed. In a 20-horse field, stone closers will find themselves behind a wall of horses backing up. Doesn't matter if he's bred to get 10f if he can't get there first.

Suddenbreakingnews--same thing, no speed.


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PostPosted: Mon May 02, 2016 6:48 pm 
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SBN does have 44 and change speed and they've added a shadow roll. They've settled him back too far - I think if he's as close as 12th and has a clear run he can get there.

jm

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PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2016 6:13 am 
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Howdy TJ - thanks for the youtube links. I thought Majesto looked good in the video - long striding, easy moving and then took off again when asked by the rider after the wire. Interesting horse...remember Canonero!!!

Saw this morning that early morning line has Creator at 15-1, wish i could lock those odds in somewhere. This Derby looks to me to have more frontrunning speed (Nyquist, Danzing Candy, Gun Runner, Outwork, Mohaymen) than the last couple of years, which may set it up for a closer.

As always it will be great fun to watch - hope that all get home safely.

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PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2016 9:36 am 
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I think Creator with all that South American blood, and Suddenbreakingnews by Mineshaft out of an Afleet Alex mare are my go to pedigrees for the mile and a quarter. They have the pedigrees, but as closers they have to get the good trips.


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PostPosted: Tue May 03, 2016 1:25 pm 
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da hossman wrote:
Howdy TJ - thanks for the youtube links. I thought Majesto looked good in the video - long striding, easy moving and then took off again when asked by the rider after the wire. Interesting horse...remember Canonero!!!

Saw this morning that early morning line has Creator at 15-1, wish i could lock those odds in somewhere. This Derby looks to me to have more frontrunning speed (Nyquist, Danzing Candy, Gun Runner, Outwork, Mohaymen) than the last couple of years, which may set it up for a closer.

As always it will be great fun to watch - hope that all get home safely.

Hi Hoss,
You're welcome. I tried in vain since the Florida Derby, to see the video of how Majesto galloped out past Nyquist after that race, Nyquist was so far in front of him and he also galloped out well himself...just couldn't understand how he ended up galloping past him? He ran that race the same way he breezed with Castellano on board galloping strong past the wire...he might like the mile and a quarter? I do remember Canonero and Majesto's trainer Gustavo Delgado and C's trainer Juan Arias, are very good friends and working as Delgado's assistant.
Lani put in his first serious move with some incident this morning with his trainer present for the first time...he went 5/8th in 1:01 after galloping a mile leading into the 5/8ths work. He was supposed to go 3/4's but the rider couldn't get him going till the 5/8th pole. No video posted yet? His trainer, Mikio Matsunaga says his antics are brought about by other horses going the wrong direction on the track....something he isn't used to, but was quick to add he isn't like that in a race? Let's hope he isn't:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2016 9:36 am 
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Here are the official entries with riders for Kentucky Derby 142. The top 20 are listed according to Derby points earnings. Two also eligible's were also entered hoping for a defection. Post Positions to be announced. TJ
Gun Runner (Florent Geroux)
Nyquist (Mario Gutierrez)
Exaggerator (Kent Desormeaux)
Outwork (John Velazquez)
Brody’s Cause (Luis Saez)
Creator (Ricardo Santana Jr.)
Lani (Yutaka Take)
Mor Spirit (Gary Stevens)
Mohaymen (Junior Alvarado)
Danzing Candy (Mike Smith)
Destin (Javier Castellano)
Suddenbreakingnews (Luis Quinonez)
Oscar Nominated (Julien Leparoux)
Shagaf (Joel Rosario)
Whitmore (Victor Espinoza)
Tom’s Ready (Brian Hernandez Jr.)
My Man Sam (Irad Ortiz Jr.)
Majesto (Emisael Jaramillo)
Trojan Nation (Aaron Gryder)
Mo Tom (Corey Lanerie)

Also Eligible:
Laoban (Cornelio Velasquez)
Cherry Wine (Robby Albarado)


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PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2016 9:46 am 
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NBCSN provides live coverage of the Derby draw, Wednesday, May 4, at 5:30 PM.

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PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2016 3:17 pm 
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Here's the field with riders and trainers in post position order for Kentucky Derby 142. Past Performances from both DRF and Equibase will be posted in the handicapping section as soon as the post positions are updated. TJ

1 Trojan Nation Aaron Gryder Patrick Gallagher 50-1
2 Suddenbreakingnews Luis Quinonez Donnie Von Hemel 20-1
3 Creator Ricardo Santana Jr Steven Asmussen 10-1
4 Mo Tom Corey Lanerie Thomas Amoss 20-1
5 Gun Runner Florent Geroux Steven Asmussen 10-1
6 My Man Sam Irad Ortiz Jr. Chad Brown 20-1
7 Oscar Nominated Julien Leparoux Michael Maker 50-1
8 Lani Yukata Take Mikio Matsunaga 30-1
9 Destin Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 15-1
10 Whitmore Victor Espinoza Ron Moquett 20-1
11 Exaggerator Kent Desormeaux J. Keith Desormeaux 8-1
12 Tom's Ready Brian Hernandez Jr Dallas Stewart 30-1
13 Nyquist Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 3-1
14 Mohaymen Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin 10-1
15 Outwork John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 15-1
16 Shagaf Joel Rosario Chad Brown 20-1
17 Mor Spirit Gary Stevens Bob Baffert 12-1
18 Majesto Emisael Jaramillo Gustavo Delgado 30-1
19 Brody's Cause Luis Saez Dale Romans 12-1
20 Danzing Candy Mike Smith Clifford Sise Jr 15-1
AE's:
Laoban (Cornelio Velasquez)
Cherry Wine (Robby Albarado)


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PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2016 4:57 pm 
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Based on pedigree, hunch, and workouts viewed, I'll bet the top 6 are (in no particular order)

Nyquist
Gun Runner
Lani
Exaggerator
Mohaymen
Danzing Candy

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2016 10:00 am 
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For those who are interested in Steve Roman's work, he has Mohaymen leading in 5 of the 7 critical "pace parameters" and second in another. No other horse comes close. I don't recall his data so strongly favoring one horse.


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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2016 1:15 pm 
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http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/clas ... review.htm


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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2016 4:16 pm 
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Here's the finish:
Nyquist
Exaggerator
Gun Runner
Mohaymen


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