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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:25 pm 
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This board has been dead of late. Lets get a good hearted argument going in predicting the 3 year old horse of the year.

The race looks wide open to me.

Arrogate appears to have a lot of momentum for the honors after his smashing win in the Travers. I want to see what he does in the BCC before anointing him.

Nyquist after his Ky. Win hasn't really done much. IMHO will have to really step up in the BCC to be considered.

Exaggerator: Likes the slop but really didn't do much on fast tracks. Now retired and can't improve on his resume. Only way he can win the honors is if all other 3 year olds don't do anything for the rest of the year.

Creator: Belmont Stakes, but clunkers in the Jim Dandy and Travers excludes him.

Cupid: Four wins in eight starts but no G-I wins or starts in the classics. Toss

Gun Runner: Probably my favorite 3 year old who has danced all the dances this year. Been on the board in 6 of 7 starts, but can't consider him as he hasn't won any of the, "big" ones.

Just my thoughts on some of the contenders/pretenders. Left a few out and would like to read who you like as 3yo of the year.

Shergar


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 27, 2016 10:18 pm 
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Hi Shergar,
In my opinion, if Arrogate didn't have issues that prevented him from running in the TC races...Baffert would have had back to back TC winners. All Arrogate has to do in the Classic is finish in front of the two other 3YO colts who made it to the Classic (Nyquist and Gun Runner) and he will be Champion 3YO Male Horse. If Arrogate is able to defeat California Chrome in the Classic, he will also be named Horse Of The Year.
If both California Chrome and Arrogate don't run well in the Classic...it will open the door for Songbird, who I thought was the best of the 3YO generation, untill Arrogate freaked out in the Travers:>). If she handles the stellar field of horses she meets in the BC Distaff, she has a chance at being Horse Of the Year as well as a lock for Champion 3YO Filly. TJ


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 5:31 pm 
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TJ wrote:
Hi Shergar,
In my opinion, if Arrogate didn't have issues that prevented him from running in the TC races...Baffert would have had back to back TC winners. All Arrogate has to do in the Classic is finish in front of the two other 3YO colts who made it to the Classic (Nyquist and Gun Runner) and he will be Champion 3YO Male Horse. If Arrogate is able to defeat California Chrome in the Classic, he will also be named Horse Of The Year.
If both California Chrome and Arrogate don't run well in the Classic...it will open the door for Songbird, who I thought was the best of the 3YO generation, untill Arrogate freaked out in the Travers:>). If she handles the stellar field of horses she meets in the BC Distaff, she has a chance at being Horse Of the Year as well as a lock for Champion 3YO Filly. TJ


what he said....


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 6:27 pm 
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Songbird.
I'm not seeing any other worthier choice here.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 28, 2016 6:41 pm 
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I would like to add something here but as usual, I echo TJ's thoughts without exception. Arrogate's record breaking run in the Travers indicates that he will be a big time player in the Classic and his two prior wins over the Santa Anita surface indicates that he may prefer the surface. It could very well be a Classic to remember and if Found runs on the main track like she does over the grass a speed duel between Chrome and Arrogate could set it up for her late kick.

DDT


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 29, 2016 5:53 pm 
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Toccet02 wrote:
Songbird.
I'm not seeing any other worthier choice here.


She has the 3yo female locked up, and an outside chance at horse of the year.

Even though I find it hard to back Arrogate off just one stakes win, granted the G-I Travers which is a big deal to me, it pains me to think he could be 3yo of the year off that one stakes win. Just too many others have big holes in their resumes.

If Arrogate does throw in a clunker, (which I highly doubt) it is going to really throw the 3yo male division into disarray.

Shergar


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 6:30 am 
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Unfortunately Nyquist came out of his final work for the BC Classic with a "puffy ankle" and has been withdrawn. TJ


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 30, 2016 5:47 pm 
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If Arrogate wins the BCC, he's got it.

That said, I will believe that when I see it...yes, he ran a heck of a race in the Travers. He has to do it again, after not having raced in 2 months against the toughest and deepest field he's yet met. A little less deep with the defection of Gun Runner and retirement of Nyquist, but still, there's Frosted, Chrome, Melatonin, Hop, Effinex, Shaman Ghost, and maybe Found.

Otherwise, even though he did best in the slop and cratered after the Travers, Exaggerator has the best record in terms of Gr-1 victories.

This year isn't all that good for 3yo males. There isn't even a Kittens Joy waiting in the wings (and I think he should have won champion 3yo as well as champion turf male that year).


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:12 am 
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I can't comment on this because Not One Of The 3yos This Year Stands Out to Me At All. It's crowded with lots of future regional sires.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 8:16 am 
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Good work Shergar...you did liven up the board a bit:>) Here are some videos of top BC Classic entries that was also pretty lively.....

California Chrome's early morning workout at Los Al going 3/4's on 10/27 (1:12.20 Handily).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG6qnu7i_Vk
Arrogate works 3/4's at Santa Anita on 10/25 (1:11.20 Handily).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHMZSsmFLOQ
Frosted who prepared for the Classic over the all weather track at the Greentree Training Center in Saratoga Springs, simply tested the waters for the first time ever over the SA strip. He looked good while reaching out powerfully on his right lead turning for home, getting his 1/2 mile in 48 Handily.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L29TszSmTHI

What a great BC event this year. So many eclipse awards will be settled this season where they should be...on the race track. Lots at stake in the Distaff, for some great horses like Beholder, Stellar Wind and Songbird. We all can see what's at stake in the Classic and the major titles that are up for grabs. Top 2YO Filly or Colts will be decided. The filly and mare turf championship awaits the outcome of the Mile and the BC Filly and Mare Turf and so many more. About the only two categories that are set in stone is the Champion 3YO Filly (Songbird) and the Champion Older Dirt Male Horse (California Chrome)....I don't think upsets will change those two outcomes:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 4:29 pm 
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Here's the BC Classic field in post position order. TJ

1. Effinex
2. Frosted
3. Keen Ice
4. California Chrome
5. Win The Space
6. Melatonin
7. War Story
8. Shaman Ghost
9. Hoppertunity
10. Arrogate


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 5:13 pm 
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I like Chrome in the 4 hole. He's got a bit of speed to his inside but nothing he can't handle.

I also like Melatonin in the 6 hole for a price.

Not sure what to make of Arrogate in the far outside. I can see Melatonin and Arrogate hooking up on the front end and Chrome sitting right behind them.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:28 pm 
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If anyone wants to take a look, all BC races including post positions, connections, jockeys and past performances are posted in the Handicapping Section. If you start looking now...you might finish by Friday:>) TJ


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:38 pm 
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I agree Exaggerator had the best record, unless Arrogate pulls it off (which I don't think he will do, Chrome baby!).
There's not even a sprinter or a turf male to sneak and "steal" the award.
It was a very strange year for 3-year-old males.


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 05, 2016 6:15 pm 
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I believe Arrogate just settled this debate for us.

Regards,
Shergar


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