Kentucky Derby 2022

[jellac]

This group is uncharacteristically QUIET, so I'll open the subject, this year's Derby and runners/prospective winners, etc.

SO, I like CYBERKNIFE. Saw him win the Arkansas Derby and was one box away from the Finish Line so got to see how he looked immediately after the race. I'd say he definitely 'left his race on the track', he wasn't as 'done in' as some appeared (the filly who valiantly chased for 2nd was totally done, while Doppelganger, a big bodied and long bodied horse, looked almost as if he hadn't started. I think he can definitely handle the distance and he's certainly been exposed to 'the crowd effect': Oaklawn was madness that day, in a good way! - AND I think he's been given sufficient time, judiciuos fitness training/tweaking since to be ready to go on first Saturday in May. Your thoughts/comments.

[jellac]

Breaking news: UN OJO is not going to be the Kentucky Derby.

[jagger]

Bill from Wa would certainly agree with Cyberknife!!! His Conduit Mare Profile is ridiculous!!! Even more so than Bill's pick of Animal Kingdom a few years back. His CMP resembles a European steeplechaser. After him, I think Taiba has the best Conduit Mare Profile. Will be coming out with my "no chance list" soon.

[jellac]

Looking forward to seeing your 'list' jagger.....appreciate the input about Bill of Wa's CMP, I also am taking a good look at Taiba....

[jagger]

The value in my "no chance" list is to identify horses that I feel have no chance of even hitting the board. Most of my decision is based on the Conduit Mare Profile, originated by Bill from Wa quite a few years ago. Identifying horses with "no chance" allows one to concentrate more on the rest of the field when making bets, especially exotics. Up until I think it was 2012, after which horses needed to earn points at appropriate lengths in order to qualify for the Derby, I was able to eliminate sometimes as much as a third of the field based on CMP figures that suggested that a horse was unlikely to be able to get 10f. Notably that year, Trinniberg was on my list and I think he finished in the bottom 3 or 4 horses and yet won the Breeder's Cup Sprint that year. The horse with the best CMP profile does not necessarily win every year but I have been fairly successful at eliminating horses from even hitting the board. One particular year comes to mind when Bill from Wa predicted that Animal Kingdom would win the Derby and many on this forum thought he had lost his mind...but a close look at AK's CMP would suggest why Bill picked him that year. I'm pretty sure that AK DID have the best CMP for 10f that year. Anyway, with the new rules for earning points for the Derby, fewer horses with questionable qualifications are earning points for the Derby and so my lists have dwindled. This year, I am only able to name 4 horses. Summer Is Tomorrow has just a dismal CMP for 10f and he heads the list. Charge It, Tiz The Bomb and Ethereal Road also made the list. I suppose I may add another horse or two as Saturday approaches. Looks like it may be wet.

[jagger]

Bill from Wa is smiling! 2nd best Conduit Mare Profile in the field. My “no chance” horses finished 9th, 17th and 20th.

[Shawklit Won]

Probably lost in the shock of the Kentucky Derby result is that a colt named Strobe made a pretty impressive debut in the final race today at Churchill Downs (race 14). Strobe won his first race, a MSW, with a time of 1:08.71. It reminded me of the debut of Life Is Good. Ironically, both Strobe and Life Is Good have the same sire, Into Mischief. I will keep an eye on Strobe.

Second place in that same race was Bourbon Heist. It was the 6th time that he finished second in 9 races. I think that he will eventually win and even be a stakes horse. Anyway, at least he won't have to race against Strobe in a maiden race again. Bourbon Heist is by Practical Joke, a son of Into Mischief.

[madelyn]

All one can say is Wow-- but the pace cooked the race and the ground saving trip and sane fractions let that horse get up there in the final strides....

[Shergar]

I'm still in shock

That insane pace def. set it up for the deep closers.

The talking heads were all about the need to be up close.

A nice feel good story on the connections of Strike Rich.

Blue collar horseman toiling away running at Belterra, MVR, Turfway etc.

[Joltman]

Great run, great story. DWL wins Oaks then bows out to let the horse win the Derby.

I was playing another closers - Mo Donegal who also closed well, but took the wrong path. Incredible ride by winner but that horse was jazzed. This guy is just getting better and better. If you watch the Ruby Stakes, his gallop out told the story of what he could do if given a chance. So often the closers get lost...

jm

[steward]

What I took away was the energetic last 100 yards by Sonny Leon when he realized that he could get more than just a part of the purse, the team's objective. He was really pumping. Watch the video and compare him to the place/show jocks.