Haskin's Derby Dozen

[Bill from WA]

STEVE HASKIN’S DERBY DOZEN (4/19/2005)

Conduit Profiles, and Classic winners descending through their Conduit Mares since 1960. Including GSW Index and GSV scores.

1) Afleet Alex: 8-7-2-5-6 (15/11) (1.32) (10.93) (62.69)
Remembrance: Avatar (Belmont Stakes)

2) Bandini: 7-7-0-9-7 (14/16) (0.91) (12.33) (70.56)
Simon’s Shoes: Golan (2000 Guineas) Valoris (Epsom Oaks)

3) Bellamy Road: 7-5-2-8-4 (12/12) (1.17) (65.60)
Court Dress: Charismatic (Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes) Refuse To Bend (2000 Guineas) Rock Of Gibraltar (2000 Guineas) Go And Go (Belmont)

4) High Fly: 2-8-4-5-7 (10/12) (0.70) (13.35) (67.48)
Springtime: Summing (Belmont)

5) Sun King: 6-4-5-3-4 (10/7) (1.31) (10.86) (62.60)
Tea Biscuit: None

6) Noble Causeway: 8-5-3-5-5 (13/10) (1.30) (10.85) (71.93)
Golden View: None

7) Wilko: 4-5-5-7-4 (9/11) (0.90) (12.40) (65.25)
Terre De Seinne: Blue Wind (Oaks Stakes) Bollin (St Leger)

8) Buzzard’s Bay: 3-5-6-6-4 (8/10) (0.85) (12.63) (56.62)
Plume: None

9) Andromeda’s Hero: 5-9-1-8-3 (14/11) (1.33) (11.04) (70.56)
Mahubah: None

10) High Limit: 10-3-1-4-5 (13/9) (1.60) (10.04) (64.14)
Passan: None

11) Greater Good: 5-7-2-5-3 (12/8) (1.46) (10.64) (62.93)
Lygie: Mark Of Esteem (2000 Guineas) Danzig Connection (Belmont) Decidedly (Belmont)

12) Greeley’s Galaxy: 4-7-6-3-4 (11/7) (1.24) (11.20) (61.41)
Sanfara: Revidere (CCA Oaks)

[Mahubah]

Actually, Bill, Mahubah does have post-1960 Classic winners to her credit, but these were both in mile events in Europe. Giovanni Imperatore (descended from her daughter Masda), won the Italian Two Thousand Guineas equivalent, the Premio Parioli, in 2001, while In Fijar (descended from her daughter Mirabelle) won the 1980 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French Two Thousand Guineas).

I had a lot of fun working with Steve in profiling some of these horses -- hope I get the same chance this year, since we're done with the weekly contender profiles for this one. The last profile will, of course, be Bellamy Road -- should post Monday or Tuesday at the Blood-Horse website, I think.

[Bill from WA]

Hi Mahubah

I should have been more clear on my Classic criteria. All of the ones that I denote as "Classic" are Grade/Group 1 races run at a distance of over 9 furlongs (with the exception of the historic 2000 Guineas at 1 mile, first run in 1809). I have 9 races that I use at this time. The Epsom Derby, the 'Arc, 2000 Guineas, KY Derby, Belmont, Preakness, Epsom Oaks, BC Classic, the CCA Oaks, and the St Leger.

Bill

[Mahubah]

No prob. Anyway, I don't know that mile races in Europe, even of Classic stature, are all that reflective of success over the longer runs of the American Triple Crown races. I know European milers often have a little more staying power than their American counterparts, especially those that have a bent for softer going, but an extra two furlongs is a little much to stretch it.

So now that the last major prep is done, what's your Derby Dozen as opposed to Steve's?

[Bill from WA]

Hi Mahubah

Steve and I agree on most, except for placement. My choices at this time are:

1) Bandini

2) High Fly

3) Afleet Alex

4) Bellamy Road

5) Wilko

6) Buzzard's Bay

7) Coin Silver

8) Greeley's Galaxy

9) Flower Alley

10) Malibu Moonshine

11) Noble Causeway

12) Sun King

Bill

[louis finochio]

Greenly's Galaxy would cost his owner 200,000 to supplement in the Derby. I was told last week that his owner wasnt going to run Greenly's Galaxy in the Derby.

With all the Derby hype, maybe his owner will ante up and run.

GG big victory in the Illinois Derby was accomplished by a hand ride only.
I also noticed the GG runs with his head down, a trait passed on by his ancestors.

[hdembski]

My "shot" for the derby is Consolidator. Dual qualifier. You don't feel he has a chance?

[Bill from WA]

Hi

I think Consolidator may have distance limitations, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance. Smart trainers run them where they feel they have a chance to win. The 10 furlongs is a new challenge for all of these horses, and my profiles try to interpret whether or not they have the stamina in their pedigrees to run that extra furlong. Doesn't always work.

Consolidator's profile: 5-7-3-5-3 (12/8) (1.43) (10.70)

Profiles Of Kentucky Derby Winners Since 1977

2004: Smarty Jones: = 11-2-2-2-11 (13/13) (1.00) (15-6-15) (12.00)
2003: Funny Cide: = 5-5-1-8-6 (10/14) (0.84) (11-14-15) (11.40)
2002: War Emblem: = 9-1-7-5-5 (10/10) (1.18) (17-13-17) (11.26)
2001: Monarchos: = 5-3-4-7-4 (8/11) (0.89) (12/13/15) (12.43)
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus: = 6-6-3-9-3 (12/12) (1.17) (15-18-15) (11.44)
1999: Charismatic: = 7-7-4-2-6 (14/8) (1.39) (18-13-12) (10.65)
1998: Real Quiet: = 6-5-0-7-6 (11/13) (0.89) (11-12-13) (12.43)
1997: Silver Charm: = 8-2-5-6-7 (10/13) (0.92) (15-13-18) (12.36)
1996: Grindstone: = 7-5-3-3-8 (12/11) (1.00) (15-11-14) (12.00)
1995: Thunder Gulch: = 2-5-5-8-2 (7/10) (0.82) (12-18-15) (12.95)
1994: Go For Gin: = 6-3-3-5-9 (9/14) (0.69) (12-11-17) (13.54)
1993: Sea Hero: = 5-4-3-9-7 (9/16) (0.65) (12-16-19) (13.61)
1992: Lil E Tee: = 5-7-3-6-5 (12/11) (1.05) (15-16-14) (11.80)
1991: Strike The Gold: = 9-4-3-5-4 (13/9) (1.56) (16-12-12) (10.20)
1990: Unbridled: = 5-3-0-5-9 (8/14) (0.57) (8-8-14) (14.27)
1989: Sunday Silence: = 5-4-6-10-2 (9/12) (1.00) (15-20-18) (12.00)
1988: Winning Colors: = 6-3-4-7-3 (9/10) (1.12) (13-14-14) (11.57)
1987: Alysheba: = 5-5-3-8-2 (10/10) (1.20) (13-16-13) (11.35)
1986: Ferdinand: = 9-4-5-6-4 (13/10) (1.42) (18-15-15) (10.57)
1985: Spend A Buck: = 10-5-5-5-6 (15/11) (1.36) (20-15-16) (10.71)
1984: Swale: = 8-2-4-7-6 (10/13) (0.96) (13-13-17) (12.19)
1983: Sunny’s Halo: = 4-6-4-8-4 (10/12) (0.90) (14-18-16) (12.38)
1982: Gato Del Sol: = 5-2-6-10-2 (7/12) (0.90) (13-18-18) (12.40)
1981: Pleasant Colony: = 5-0-3-8-5 (5/13) (0.62) (8-11-16) (13.90)
1980: Genuine Risk: = 6-6-6-6-4 (12/10) (1.20) (18-18-16) (11.29)
1979: Spectacular Bid: = 6-6-6-7-4 (12/11) (1.14) (18-19-17) (11.48)
1978: Affirmed: = 4-8-5-6-4 (12/10) (1.11) (17-19-15) (11.63)
1977: Seattle Slew: = 10-3-3-3-10 (13/13) (1.00) (16-9-16) (12.00)

(Avg. GWS Index: 11.99) (Avg. Index: 1.02) (Average Profile: 6-4-4-6-5)

Last 28 Kentucky Derby winners.

Index at 1.00 = 4
Index over 1.00 = 12
Index less than 1.00 =12
Index over 1.30 = 4
Index less than 0.70 = 4
Index over 1.42 = 1
Index less than 0.60 = 1
Index between 0.80 and 1.20 = 20

Only one winner in this sample had as few as 8 stamina points, that being Charismatic, however, 6 of his stamina points were in the Professional aptitudinal range.

Bill