So Who is the Derby Winner? Live long shots?

Des · Postby **Des** » Fri May 06, 2005 7:08 am

Afleet Alex
Noble Causeway
Wilko
Don't Get Mad
Sort It Out
High Limit

roving boy · Postby **roving boy** » Fri May 06, 2005 7:23 am

Corrections to my previous email - 3rd start off a layoff applies to:

High Limit
Wilko
Bellamy Road

Improving Beyer numbers with last over 100 applies to:

Noble Causeway
Greeley's Galaxy
High Fly
Afleet Alex
Bandini
Bellamy Road

Kinda makes me re-think my earlier comment about Bellamy Road.

liberty · Postby **liberty** » Fri May 06, 2005 11:33 am

I am afraid that I am not much of a handicapper, but here goes. This bet would be made to attain a significant payoff.

Box High Fly, Noble Causeway(how do you separate these 2), Wilko ( on the improve and might like CD better than SA), and Afleet Alex and Greeleys Galaxy in a triple box.

I think Wilko will win.

bjar · Postby **bjar** » Fri May 06, 2005 12:10 pm

Trifecta Box- Bellamy Road, Noble Causeway, Sun King
1st-Zito
2nd Zito
3rd-Zito

Joe · Postby **Joe** » Fri May 06, 2005 7:21 pm

I'm probably at the point of totally over analyzing this, which is probably where we all are.

I'm down to:

Afleet Alex
High Fly

Sun King
Buzzard's Bay

Wilko
Andromeda's Hero
Spanish Chestnut

I remember the old "rabbits" in races where jockeys tried to rate their speed horses off them and the "rabbit" ended up winning.

TomFool · Postby **TomFool** » Fri May 06, 2005 8:59 pm

I have it down to these: key Noble Causeway in a super over Sun King, Wilko, Afleet Alex, Bandini & Giacomo. Also key Bandini over NC, SK, AA, Wilko & Giacomo. I really like & have had lucky playing supers this way on a $120 investment for a buck.

HorseChick · Postby **HorseChick** » Sat May 07, 2005 2:16 pm

Sun King
Afleet Alex
Coin Silver

Buzzard's Bay because my mother lives in the town of the same name:D

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Sat May 07, 2005 3:48 pm

The numbers didn't hold up. All the top three finishers had sprinter/miler profiles. Giacomo had the second highest Index (1.44) in the past 28 years. Superfecta payed over a million dollars. Have to wait for the Belmont now.

Bill

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Sat May 07, 2005 9:53 pm

I'll have to delve deeper into Giacomo's female family. I didn't have enough relevent information on his conduit mare, Don's Birthday, so she ended up as "Cx2" in the profile. After his outstanding performance today, I have to believe there is significant stamina emanating from that source. Have to look closer.
I don't know what happened to Bandini. He was washed out and fractious in the post parade. High Fly had no excuse. The surprise to me was the strong final kick from Closing Argument. Afleet Alex was game as usual.
The next two will be interesting. I think we'll have a different winner in each.

Bill

Bill from WA · Postby **Bill from WA** » Sun May 08, 2005 9:11 am

I have discovered lots of stamina influences in Giacomo's female family. Mostly in France and England. Eclipse Stakes (10f) winner Mystery, and St Simon S (12f) winner, Orcadian among them. I have to confess that in hurrying to research all of the contenders, Don's Birthday, Giacomo's conduit mare, slipped by and ended up in the middle of the profile instead of in the stamina range where she belongs. Sloppy work on my part.

Bill