So Who is the Derby Winner? Live long shots?

[hdembski]

We'll i've read Andy Beyer and predictably he's taking the top horses like Bellamy Road & Afleet Alex. Hey i get it, they look great. My bomber special is Sort it out. He has a great 2 year old foundation, Is in better hands with Baffert, has the right running style, has 17 crosses of Phalarsis and has some very influential female extended family and is similar that way to smarty Jones. The negative is lack of tripple digit Beyer, but at any time these 3 year olds can pop. He likely won't be in the money, but will be worth a flyer to me based on some striking Pedigree similarities to last years winner.

[chicago78]

The horse I've been on for a few weeks in Noble Causeway, but he seems to be getting a lot of hype. I like him at 10 or 12-1, which he should go off at, but there's always a horse that people get behind derby week, and the odds go way down. The one I remember most is Jumron, who I think went off at like 6-1 after a fast closing 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby. He should have been 20-1.

enough rambling. The two horses I sort of like now are Sun King and Wilco. A lot of horses have run poor at Keeneland and turned it around at Churchill. I think he has a nice stalking style, and I figure the pace will be strong, with Spanish Chestnut, High Limit, and Bellamy Road rolling up front. He could get the first jump on the leaders, which is always dangerous. Also like Wilco, as he's improving, and should get overlooked at the windows.

[Bill from WA]

My Derby picks in order of preference.

1) Bandini (6-1)

2) High Fly ((8-1)

3) Afleet Alex (9-2)

4) Wilko (20-1)

5) Bellamy Road (5-2)

6) Coin Silver (20-1)

7) Sort It Out (50-1)

I'll be using all of them in the superfecta, and some in other exotics.

Superfecta:

Bandini & High Fly (1st) on top of High Fly, Bandini, Afleet Alex and Wilko (2nd)
on top of High Fly, Afleet Alex, and Wilko (3rd), on top of Sort It Out, Afleet Alex, Wilko, Bellamy Road and Coin Silver (4th).

Bellamy Road may indeed be a monster, but I'm taking a stand against him in order to get a price. He'll either win easy or bounce.

Bill

[jellac]

I'm with Wilco -

With Spanish Chestnut in the race there's going to be an honest pace and if Bellamy Road goes with him, perhaps even a furious one....I doubt they'll try to get Bellamy Road to rate at this late stage given his few outs they'd be better off letting him run his race as he wants to do and that has been on the front end to date.

That sets it up for the stalkers and closers...and there seem to be a fair number of those in this Derby soooo I think Wilco's ability to sit way back of the pack letting everyone else duke it out early, his absolutely determined will to fight to the finish, his improving form and his much greater experience in terms of number of contests will see him through all the Derby hub-bub in the end. That scenario also puts the pressure on having a top flight jockey aboard as I suspect that there will be some real stratigizing/positioning among the stalkers/closers as the race develops, ergo the need for a 'trip meister' aboard. Nakatoni is a competitive son of a gun...but I'm not always convinced that he's the cool headed, calculating type that I'd want on Derby day. Very important to see how Wilco looks in the pre-race paddock viewing - IF he's sharp I'm going with him for sure.

Coin Silver is another that I really liked the 'attitude of' in his last race - that horse was 'KEEN' to race and he's on the improve in form...could be that his best will shine forth on Derby Day.

OF course it could be Bellamy Road all the way, winning "with authority" as he has shown himself capable of BUT I'm betting he's going to bounce on Derby Day.....just as young, inexperienced 3YOs are wont to do....Besides it doesn't pay to bet such huge favorites and historicly favorites don't often win the Derby.

[Joe]

I think I'm running on the same wavelength as Bill from WA. I do like High Fly because of his 2 100+ Beyers, which is usually a good indication of being able to get to the level to win this race. The last horse to win the Derby without a 100+ Beyer on it's form was Sea Hero, and that was a wierd year.

Andy Beyer has a vested interest in all his figure horses. Even though he sold the company, he still gets income as long as DRF uses them. A Bellamy Road win profits Andy.

The key I saw, and I was at the Wood, was that Bellamy Road has not run a really good 1/2. The Wood was 47. That speed in the Derby will put him about 7th.

I love Wilko. He's a midget, but has tremedous guts. I don't know whether he can win, but he will certainly try. Alex tries also, the jock is the question. He may be the best horse.

I also like Sun King to run real well here, his last race can be thrown out at Keenland. Zito told the jockey to "Turn left and see what happens". The bad post was a no-win situation and I think they never tried with the horse to save it for this.

Noble Causeway is wonderfully bred, but is still somwhat green. I actually think, and I probably have GSV to agree, that this could be a very good horse. If it was mine, I'd have to fight the Derby fever and run him somewhere else. Hopefully this doesn't ruin a nice horse.

Afleet Alex proved the "one-turn horse" stigma wrong in the last race and his breeding always suggested he will be here in this.

A horse I really like is Greater Good, but I think it is too much for him. I think this is a great horse you could get the Ohio, Oklahoma and PA Derby's with. However, probably toasted on Saturday.

Bandini is my X-factor. I don't know what to do. I really think he will finish out.

[llbean]

Hi Joe,

I remember the first half of the the Wood as going in :46.

-llbean

[Nijinsky]

NOT NECESSARILY IN THIS ORDER

Bellamy Road

High Fly

Don't Get Mad

[skeenan]

I know I really can't say with any experience who I think will win... I'd like to bet some "for fun" money on Wilco... I'm hoping he'll pull it out to win it. Gutsy little horse! Coin Silver came out of nowhere to win, to everyone's surprise– so perhaps the same will happen– I've found that most televised races I've watched rarely play out the way the commentary builds it up to be... so I'm keeping my fingers crossed!

After seeing Bellamy Road a couple weeks ago, if he repeats, he'll be hard to beat... but anything can happen and I'm sure it will be exciting as always!

[Denise]

Andromeda's Hero. He's got the paper to back up a late, strong run. His dam's family's LOADED with class and stamina.
I like Wilko, but he's got bad feet. Bad feet are very hard to manage, especially on dirt.
However, I will likely play Alex, Sun King and Noble Causeway.

[Tucumcari]

1. Bandini
2. Bellamy Road
3. Buzzards Bay
4. Don't Get Mad

[petersd]

I've learned my lesson about betting the Derby when there's only one legitimate frontrunner. Though I don't think he's in the same class, Spanish Chestnut is worth a $2 win cover bet. If no one goes with him, and he gets to role through :24 and :48, it could get ugly. I honestly don't think it will happen, but I'd feel like an idiot if it did, and I had nothing on him.

[ageecee]

Love Giants Causeway and Wilko

[Joe]

Yes, that was a 46. However I still don't consider it a fast time for that day, and didn't then. Frank Passaro wanted a big time and got it. Why NYRA would hire a guy who worked at Laurel (and was getting let go) is beyond me. Jerry Poricelli must be flipping out at this. He was a great super and this guy Passaro is a big joke, he's a small-time super. If this horse does not win the Derby, Bellamy Road that is, Passero should quit on the spot.

[roving boy]

I think the horse to beat is Afleet Alex - all that mileage every day and he still carries good weight and is a beautiful mover.

Looking for Bellamy Road to be a one shot wonder...

Love the 3rd start off a layoff angle for Wilko...say, that applies to Afleet Alex also!

Can not ignore Bandini - the hype horse that could be for real.

Longshot selection - probably will not win, but will love the added distance and looks well, moves well and has heart.

It will be fun to watch!

Interesting how so many of the early post selections were wide....

[roving boy]

I did not name my longshot - Buzzards Bay!