Just read the Andy Beyer's Washington Post Article about the KY Derby. He called this the worst Derby in 20 years. I agree with him a little bit although I think he is upset that Bellamy Road or Afleet Alex did not win. He also bought into play the use of drugs as the reason why some Derby contenders did not run all that great.
Just About the Worst First Possible
American racing has been blessed in the last few years by memorable drama in the 3-year-old classics: great thoroughbred performances, engaging human characters, rags-to-riches stories and bids for the Triple Crown that generated public excitement and record television ratings.
But the victory by Giacomo in Saturday's Kentucky Derby came as a crashing anticlimax -- a race that will rank among the worst Derbies of recent decades, along with Sea Hero's win in 1993 and Gato Del Sol's in 1982. Giacomo's triumph produced more bewilderment than exhilaration. How did it happen that a 50-1 shot, who had won a single race in his career, edged out an equally undistinguished 72-1 shot in the nation's most celebrated horse race?
Pre-race attention had centered on two other colts, Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex, who brought solid credentials to Churchill Downs. Bellamy Road had scored a phenomenal 17 1/2 -length runaway in his final prep race; Afleet Alex had been a tough, consistent competitor this year and last. With a victory, either could have produced the kind of excitement that surrounded Smarty Jones and Funny Cide in the last two seasons.
But besides the two favorites, there was no quality in the 20-horse field -- just a bunch of horses who had won slow prep races because somebody had to win them. If, for any reason, Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex failed to fire their best shots at Churchill Downs, the Derby could turn into a virtual lottery.
And that's what happened.
The 131st Derby was shaped by what happened in the first quarter-mile. Many habitual front-runners populated the field; one of them, Spanish Chestnut, had been entered to go on a suicide mission and set a fast pace to help Bandini, who was owned by the same partnership as the "rabbit." Spanish Chestnut did his job, zipping the first two furlongs in 22.28 seconds (though he couldn't help Bandini, who finished 19th). In the six other Derbies when the first-quarter mile was run between 21.8 and 22.3 seconds, the speed collapsed and the winner rallied from ninth place or farther behind. The fast pace takes a toll not only on the leader but on all the horses in proximity to him. In 2001 the horses running 1-2-3-4 after a quarter-mile finished 13-14-16-11.
The main questions about Bellamy Road before Saturday's race had concerned his ability to withstand such early pressure and to win when he didn't have the early lead to himself. He couldn't do it; he suffered the same fate as all of the horses chasing Spanish Chestnut's fast pace. With only five races in his career and two prep races as a 3-year-old, perhaps he didn't have the necessary experience and seasoning.
As the leaders weakened on the final turn, the stretch-runners were poised to make their moves -- and Afleet Alex was in the best position. Much of the pre-race speculation about the colt had centered on the inexperience of his jockey, Jeremy Rose; the colt's owners and trainer might have replaced him if a top rider had been available. Yet of all 20 jockeys in the Derby, nobody rode better than Rose. He threaded his way through the congested field, saved ground most of the way, got Afleet Alex into high gear on the turn and avoided any traffic that might have stalled his momentum. But in the final eighth of a mile, the colt faltered -- with no excuse. "He just had nothing left," Rose said. Perhaps 1 1/4 miles was a furlong too far for him. Perhaps his form was on the downgrade after a peak effort in the Arkansas Derby. Whatever the reason, Afleet Alex wasn't able to fire his best shot, even with a perfect trip. And the 131st Derby was up for grabs.
It was ready to be won by any horse who could muster any energy in the Churchill Downs stretch. The final half-mile of this Derby was run in 53.16 seconds -- the slowest such fraction over a fast track in the Derby since 1974. Yet horses who looked on paper like late-running threats (such as Wilko, Noble Causeway and Sun King) couldn't make an impact.
Giacomo outfinished them all -- and he's not even a stretch runner. In his three California races this season, he did not pass a single horse in the stretch. It would be more accurate to say he outstaggered his rivals. His final time of 2 minutes 2.75 seconds translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, the worst for the race in at least 20 years. (Two years ago a horse named Buddy Gil earned a figure of 100 in the Derby -- and finished sixth.)
Some racing fans will view this outcome with suspicion. As concerns about illegal drug use have mounted within the industry during the last year, Churchill Downs put into place much tighter security at its barns and more extensive post-race testing procedures. The headline in the Daily Racing Form summed it up: "Derby Put Under the Microscope." In this changed environment, horses who had run explosive prep races didn't duplicate them; trainers who achieved miraculous records elsewhere performed no miracles on Derby day. Perhaps this is too cynical an interpretation of Saturday's events, but in any case this was a dismal Derby -- except for the prescient bettors who had their money on an impossible-looking 50-1 shot.
Andy Beyer's Post Derby Analysis
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louis finochio
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If Andrew Byer was a breeder of TB he wouldnt make those unkind remarks.
Some years you breed the superior runners and some years are lean.
When you plan your matings some times they work and some times they dont. This is why no one can breed superior runners every year.
The breeding shed is a challenge as this is where mother nature works with you or against you.
I love the challenge to plan a mating that will produce the big horse, even if I only produce one big horse in my lifetime.
Some years you breed the superior runners and some years are lean.
When you plan your matings some times they work and some times they dont. This is why no one can breed superior runners every year.
The breeding shed is a challenge as this is where mother nature works with you or against you.
I love the challenge to plan a mating that will produce the big horse, even if I only produce one big horse in my lifetime.
Those without sin cast the first stone.
Louis Finochio
Louis Finochio
Beyer
Of course Andy Beyer "bashed the derby". He was humiliated with his picks. If a horse wins that doesn't support his "Beyer Numbers" then the race was bad or something happened. Perhaps reality is Beyers don't matter. All you can do is use your knowledge to pick your winners and hope for the best. The derby is a joke, too many horses, too many reporters, too many people. The Breeders cup is a more legitimate way of determining "the best". The derby should be no more than 15 horses period. I don't feel drugs had anything to do with it. These are 3 year old colts, quite tempermental. Just as we can't predict another humans behaviors or performance, we can't predict a horses.
hi guys
Will somebody please hand Andy Beyer a crying towel.
Consider this...in the Arkansas Derby Afleet Alex ran the final eighth in 11 4/5 seconds (and easily drew off to win by 8+ lengths)...in the Wood, Bellamy Road romped by 17+ and equaled the 23 year-old track record (even Andy Beyer tagged Bellamy Road with a 120 Beyer coming out of the Wood)....at Gulfstream Park Closing Argument defeated High Fly and Bandini very nicely etc etc...and CA probably would have won the Florida Derby but for a foot bruise that caused his connections to pass on the race.
For Beyer to bash this group is ridiculous. Isn't it fair to say that this was a good group (or possibly better) going into the Ky Derby...possibly moreso than in some recent years? Pre-race it seemed like there was a consensus...an outstanding group of 3-yo's.
It appeared to me that the "rabbit" Spanish Chestnut (who's owner's entered him in the Ky Derby with one mission and one mission only...to set blazing fractions and help set things up for their other colt in the race, Bandini) succeeded at his job. Think about it...Bellamy Road went with Spanish Chestnut, was in a perfect spot but melted under the fractions and understandably had nothing left to finish...Afleet Alex ran a very good race but couldn't summon the energy he had in the last eight of the ArkDerby (although he still finished a nice third in the Ky Derby) and Bandini through in a STINKER to remember, to finish 19th of 20. Don't forget his miserable performance when they advertise Bandini at stud and try to convince you that he is great.
For whatever reasons...the race obviously set up perfectly for Giacomo and Afleet Alex (who seems to be as honest as they come)...the wildcard was Closing Argument. He was the ONLY colt that was in the first flight of horses at the outset (and by the way was 9 wide) and still had enough to not only challenge down the stretch but also take the lead in the stretch and hold it gamely until the final strides...to finish second to Giacomo...WOW. Enough already that Closing Argument's outrunning his pedigree (per the pundits)...he's a dam good racehorse (and NEVER been worse than 3rd in his life)...and is by a superstar young sire.
Isn't it fair to say that (to a large degree) this race was about the lightning-fast fractions set by Spanish Chestnut 22.28...45.38...1:09.88...which slowed to a 1:35.88 mile...and then to a rather pedestrian final time of 2:02.75.
The prognosticators and pundits had it as a race among three (or so) horses...Bellamy Road...Afleet Alex...Bandini etc. Who would have thought that John Shirreffs would be interviewed as the winning trainer? Such is horse racing...isn't it great !!!
I very much look forward to the Preakness.
Respectfully
Will somebody please hand Andy Beyer a crying towel.
Consider this...in the Arkansas Derby Afleet Alex ran the final eighth in 11 4/5 seconds (and easily drew off to win by 8+ lengths)...in the Wood, Bellamy Road romped by 17+ and equaled the 23 year-old track record (even Andy Beyer tagged Bellamy Road with a 120 Beyer coming out of the Wood)....at Gulfstream Park Closing Argument defeated High Fly and Bandini very nicely etc etc...and CA probably would have won the Florida Derby but for a foot bruise that caused his connections to pass on the race.
For Beyer to bash this group is ridiculous. Isn't it fair to say that this was a good group (or possibly better) going into the Ky Derby...possibly moreso than in some recent years? Pre-race it seemed like there was a consensus...an outstanding group of 3-yo's.
It appeared to me that the "rabbit" Spanish Chestnut (who's owner's entered him in the Ky Derby with one mission and one mission only...to set blazing fractions and help set things up for their other colt in the race, Bandini) succeeded at his job. Think about it...Bellamy Road went with Spanish Chestnut, was in a perfect spot but melted under the fractions and understandably had nothing left to finish...Afleet Alex ran a very good race but couldn't summon the energy he had in the last eight of the ArkDerby (although he still finished a nice third in the Ky Derby) and Bandini through in a STINKER to remember, to finish 19th of 20. Don't forget his miserable performance when they advertise Bandini at stud and try to convince you that he is great.
For whatever reasons...the race obviously set up perfectly for Giacomo and Afleet Alex (who seems to be as honest as they come)...the wildcard was Closing Argument. He was the ONLY colt that was in the first flight of horses at the outset (and by the way was 9 wide) and still had enough to not only challenge down the stretch but also take the lead in the stretch and hold it gamely until the final strides...to finish second to Giacomo...WOW. Enough already that Closing Argument's outrunning his pedigree (per the pundits)...he's a dam good racehorse (and NEVER been worse than 3rd in his life)...and is by a superstar young sire.
Isn't it fair to say that (to a large degree) this race was about the lightning-fast fractions set by Spanish Chestnut 22.28...45.38...1:09.88...which slowed to a 1:35.88 mile...and then to a rather pedestrian final time of 2:02.75.
The prognosticators and pundits had it as a race among three (or so) horses...Bellamy Road...Afleet Alex...Bandini etc. Who would have thought that John Shirreffs would be interviewed as the winning trainer? Such is horse racing...isn't it great !!!
I very much look forward to the Preakness.
Respectfully
Please Tell Andy...Racing is not as easy as giving a number figure and then think that's how they'll run....Much more to it Andy...There goes the dosage and all other silly reasons why a horse can't win...You need lots of luck and performance ability..... Hat's off to Afleet Alex he ran a hell of a race though.... He's the Most consistent of the bunch..
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fastappy
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Hdembski, crow is not that easy to eat and you're mentioning the beyer isn't helping Andy wash down that crow, one bit. 
FOS, that's an excellent response. Andy can't sweep those points under the rug.
A couple of positive quotes from Jay Hovdey (DRF - 6 May 05). "Shirreffs is one of those half-horse trainers who has been dealing with the breed since forever. His handling of Giacomo since last summer smacks of an old-school progression that is reminiscent of the way Charlie Whittingham brought Ferdinand to the 1986 Derby."
"He (Giacomo) has never impressed the handicappers who compile speed figures. Still, there are threads to the Giacomo tale could prompt a second look, and not just because he bears the name of a rock star's son."
FOS, that's an excellent response. Andy can't sweep those points under the rug.
A couple of positive quotes from Jay Hovdey (DRF - 6 May 05). "Shirreffs is one of those half-horse trainers who has been dealing with the breed since forever. His handling of Giacomo since last summer smacks of an old-school progression that is reminiscent of the way Charlie Whittingham brought Ferdinand to the 1986 Derby."
"He (Giacomo) has never impressed the handicappers who compile speed figures. Still, there are threads to the Giacomo tale could prompt a second look, and not just because he bears the name of a rock star's son."
Last edited by fastappy on Mon May 09, 2005 2:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Beyer
hdembski wrote:Of course Andy Beyer "bashed the derby". He was humiliated with his picks. If a horse wins that doesn't support his "Beyer Numbers" then the race was bad or something happened. Perhaps reality is Beyers don't matter. All you can do is use your knowledge to pick your winners and hope for the best. The derby is a joke, too many horses, too many reporters, too many people. The Breeders cup is a more legitimate way of determining "the best". The derby should be no more than 15 horses period. I don't feel drugs had anything to do with it. These are 3 year old colts, quite tempermental. Just as we can't predict another humans behaviors or performance, we can't predict a horses.
hi hdemski,
But the performance of the human help at the track preparation as was noticed, with the win of arcangues and now giacomo was not mentioned before by all the really top handicapers and anouncers only rule 2 came a little bit close in hindside . so i,am disapointed too.
here are the numbers
arcangues 5-1-8-7-2 4.6 speed/stamina 10/13
giacomo 9-1-8-8-4 3.3 14/16
now if you compare times at tracks of santa anita
and churchill i, don't know if they do not compare
what waS BEYER FOR ARCANGUES ?
Best Siegy,
Flora is beginning of biology, chemistry is master.
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StrawberryFelidos
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After watching racing for a time and seeing results like this it is my opinion that one race can not mint a superstar (as many seem to think/expect with the Derby these days). So often the public and others seem to expect that a Derby or Breeder's Cup winner =instant champion. Me, I say this: look at the entire racing history. Was it overall a pretty damn good career? Was it pretty lackluster? There are always oddball results in the history- a champion who finishes last, an erratic animal who finishes first, but the overall average will tell the full story.
Big races can be won by any horse, and wacky results definately happen, but championships belong to the most consistant achievers
Me, I'd say that Giacomo isn't the best this crop has to offer, although he did have a very good day on Saturday. His overall racing career is rather lackluster on average- up to this point. Afleet Alex is much more consistant on form, and if Bellamy Road shows that he can offer shining results on a regular basis then he's deserving, too. Giacomo won the Derby but c'est la vie, the world is still intact. The crop's end-of-the-year records will tell the full story.
(By the way, does anyone remember Colonial Colony? I recall his Stephen Foster upset with awe, and like Giacomo I can not explain how he won it. Such are the great mysteries!)
Big races can be won by any horse, and wacky results definately happen, but championships belong to the most consistant achievers
Me, I'd say that Giacomo isn't the best this crop has to offer, although he did have a very good day on Saturday. His overall racing career is rather lackluster on average- up to this point. Afleet Alex is much more consistant on form, and if Bellamy Road shows that he can offer shining results on a regular basis then he's deserving, too. Giacomo won the Derby but c'est la vie, the world is still intact. The crop's end-of-the-year records will tell the full story.
(By the way, does anyone remember Colonial Colony? I recall his Stephen Foster upset with awe, and like Giacomo I can not explain how he won it. Such are the great mysteries!)
StrawberryFelidos wrote:Me, I'd say that Giacomo isn't the best this crop has to offer, although he did have a very good day on Saturday. His overall racing career is rather lackluster on average- up to this point.
I'm sure you're right...
Despite all the controversy, I am happy for him and his owner(s)... and Mike Smith! I try to imagine what it must have been like, going into it with everyone talking about Bellamy Road, Afleet Alex, etc... and to see your horse come through like that at the end... that must have been incredible!
Boy, I would have liked to see some of the faces in the crowd... betcha there were some priceless looks!
Even if this was his one shining moment in history, I can say that I would give my right arm to be standing in that winner's circle under the same circumstances!
He may not compare to the "greats" over time, I'll agree, but I give him his props for pulling it off...Personally, when I went to handicap this Derby, I found it to be one of the potentially deepest in years. When I was breaking down each horse individually, I could find reasons to justify wins by all but about 5 (and three of those 5 had trainer connections which normally couldn't be overlooked).
The time was a little on the slow side and the horses were staggering down the stretch, however the pace wasn't the only thing to be blamed for this. First, this was one of the warmest derbies in years.
Second, this was an inexperienced group, overall. I have found when stretching out a fairly seasoned horse you will find a little more punch at the end than you will get out of an inexperienced one... don't ask me why... I'm not real sure.
Third, the atmosphere causes tension, in both humans and equines... this tension, especially when coupled with the heat, takes a little more out of the participants than normal. (I had a friend who was an outrider for a Derby years ago. She swore that the atmosphere fatigued her and her horse about twice as much as on a regular day... I believe her, but I also point to the day simply being longer as well.) The tension is there every year... but not the heat... and this was also the second biggest crowd ever... in a new Churchill configuration...
Fourth, the track was lightning fast earlier in the day. In and of itself, this should be expected (for better or worse... don't get me started on my opinion of tracks "souping" up their speedways for big events), however in this case the speed was ultra-speedy and may have been able to keep pressure on longer because of the track. A friend, and former trainer, was there and claimed that by allowing the speed to hang on longer and go faster, many of the closers and stalkers were having to work too hard to stay close enough to make a move, thus came up dead when called upon. I'm not sure I buy it... but it is something to think about... and consider. It also would be a little funny to suggest that Bandini's rabbit actually did his job too well.
The same trainer actually had to support Beyer's assertion, albeit begrudgingly, that drug use may have played a role in some horses not firing. It is killing him that he is in agreement with Beyer because for years he has exclaimed that Beyer and his speed figs are useless (he quotes all sorts of biases, inequalities, and even manipulation of data...).
Anyway, he was trying to sell that some trainers simply tried to be too smart for their horses good... such things as increases in Salix causing sluggishness... and other "meds" meant to help the horse relax, not mixing well with the heat and the atmosphere. Of course, he is basically anti-drug and pro- uniformity, which pretty much means his opinion is going to be one-sided.
Anyway, I personally think the outcome, while surprising and almost impossible to predict, was not completely out of the realm of possibilities prior to the Derby. As has been pointed out above, it is not as if the top two finishers hadn't been competitive in their prep races (Giacomo wasn't embarrassed in the Santa Anita Derby, and Closing Argument was a well thought horse in South Florida for much of the winter. And, of course, Alex was Alex... )
Beyer was embarrassed... and I think more so with this derby than many in the past. He, and his numbers, had annointed one of three to be the "next big one". One has to keep in mind that Beyer and his numbers have had increasing competition over the past few years. From Ragozin Figs to Prime Power plays, there are other tools available beside the Beyers. Also to be considered is the Beyer ego... he has a huge, huge one... or at least compensates to the nth degree. When such a large ego is faced with absolute failure, on a national level... the results are usually predictable. In this case, it was predictable that Beyer would question the legitimacy of the outcome to compensate for his lousy picks and the failure of his system.
Now, as for the horses: A couple months ago, I probably would have agreed with Beyer about the quality in this crop... however, since I don't have a vested (financial) interest in protecting my system, handicapping abilities, or my ego, it is easier for me to remove my proverbial blinkers.
Here is some of what I found:
I was not a big Bellamy Road fan... in fact, I chose to play against him in my exotics, however it only took watching his stride around that first turn to make a believer out of me. If I had to pick a winner as they left the first turn, I would have picked him. I hope we see him again, and again, and again, and I hope he truly races to the magnificence of that stride.
Wilko and Afleet Alex are timeless treasures. They are going to give you what they have whether the race is run in 1905, 1955, or 2005, in Kentucky, Alaska, or the Congo, on dirt, turf, concrete, or glass. They are unique in today's world... they are truly racehorses. I personally think Afleet Alex would have won or at least hit the board in several of the more recent derbies... and I am the one who wasn't an Afleet Alex believer prior to the derby. (I thought his Ark Derby was a partnership between him, the track, and the questionable field.) I'll even risk being labeled a heretic and put forth the supposition that had Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones been in same derby, (either Arkansas or Kentucky), we would not have had the "Smarty Story" of 2004.
I saw Bandini and Sun King in person at Keeneland, prior to the Bluegrass. I sought them out because I thought they were probably being overhyped. Although I really didn't get a chance to see every conformational flaw they might have had, I can tell you both really looked the part of a champion. Sun King had a special look about him and a special way about him while Bandini is an awesome critter in every way. I can understand how each captured the imagination of its well-seasoned trainer. Who knows if they will progress... but I have a hard time questioning the ability of any horse that looks that good. (I know, I know... every day there are tons of incredible looking critters running in low level claimers... but... I cannot help myself.)
One must also keep in mind that horses such as Harlington, Declans Moon, and Roman Ruler didn't even make the Derby. What a group to have on the DL... one can only speculate what this derby might have been had they been able to participate. (Resident Serena's Song apologist swears Harlington would have won this derby.)
No, Mr. Beyer, I beg to differ... I think this is about as deep a group as you will ever wish to find. There may not be a "huge horse" but I think there are several legitimate stakes horses to be found in this crop. I also think some of the more recent "superstars" were actually complimented by their relatively weak competition, while this group will probably be beating on each other at every stop. Furthermore, I find it exciting that with this depth and quality we are bound to have a few continue their careers past this year.
As for Giacomo and if he will ever win another stakes race... well... he was 50-1 once already and overcame those odds. If offered 50-1 on him to win another, would you be able to turn it down?
The time was a little on the slow side and the horses were staggering down the stretch, however the pace wasn't the only thing to be blamed for this. First, this was one of the warmest derbies in years.
Second, this was an inexperienced group, overall. I have found when stretching out a fairly seasoned horse you will find a little more punch at the end than you will get out of an inexperienced one... don't ask me why... I'm not real sure.
Third, the atmosphere causes tension, in both humans and equines... this tension, especially when coupled with the heat, takes a little more out of the participants than normal. (I had a friend who was an outrider for a Derby years ago. She swore that the atmosphere fatigued her and her horse about twice as much as on a regular day... I believe her, but I also point to the day simply being longer as well.) The tension is there every year... but not the heat... and this was also the second biggest crowd ever... in a new Churchill configuration...
Fourth, the track was lightning fast earlier in the day. In and of itself, this should be expected (for better or worse... don't get me started on my opinion of tracks "souping" up their speedways for big events), however in this case the speed was ultra-speedy and may have been able to keep pressure on longer because of the track. A friend, and former trainer, was there and claimed that by allowing the speed to hang on longer and go faster, many of the closers and stalkers were having to work too hard to stay close enough to make a move, thus came up dead when called upon. I'm not sure I buy it... but it is something to think about... and consider. It also would be a little funny to suggest that Bandini's rabbit actually did his job too well.
The same trainer actually had to support Beyer's assertion, albeit begrudgingly, that drug use may have played a role in some horses not firing. It is killing him that he is in agreement with Beyer because for years he has exclaimed that Beyer and his speed figs are useless (he quotes all sorts of biases, inequalities, and even manipulation of data...).
Anyway, he was trying to sell that some trainers simply tried to be too smart for their horses good... such things as increases in Salix causing sluggishness... and other "meds" meant to help the horse relax, not mixing well with the heat and the atmosphere. Of course, he is basically anti-drug and pro- uniformity, which pretty much means his opinion is going to be one-sided.
Anyway, I personally think the outcome, while surprising and almost impossible to predict, was not completely out of the realm of possibilities prior to the Derby. As has been pointed out above, it is not as if the top two finishers hadn't been competitive in their prep races (Giacomo wasn't embarrassed in the Santa Anita Derby, and Closing Argument was a well thought horse in South Florida for much of the winter. And, of course, Alex was Alex... )
Beyer was embarrassed... and I think more so with this derby than many in the past. He, and his numbers, had annointed one of three to be the "next big one". One has to keep in mind that Beyer and his numbers have had increasing competition over the past few years. From Ragozin Figs to Prime Power plays, there are other tools available beside the Beyers. Also to be considered is the Beyer ego... he has a huge, huge one... or at least compensates to the nth degree. When such a large ego is faced with absolute failure, on a national level... the results are usually predictable. In this case, it was predictable that Beyer would question the legitimacy of the outcome to compensate for his lousy picks and the failure of his system.
Now, as for the horses: A couple months ago, I probably would have agreed with Beyer about the quality in this crop... however, since I don't have a vested (financial) interest in protecting my system, handicapping abilities, or my ego, it is easier for me to remove my proverbial blinkers.
Here is some of what I found:
I was not a big Bellamy Road fan... in fact, I chose to play against him in my exotics, however it only took watching his stride around that first turn to make a believer out of me. If I had to pick a winner as they left the first turn, I would have picked him. I hope we see him again, and again, and again, and I hope he truly races to the magnificence of that stride.
Wilko and Afleet Alex are timeless treasures. They are going to give you what they have whether the race is run in 1905, 1955, or 2005, in Kentucky, Alaska, or the Congo, on dirt, turf, concrete, or glass. They are unique in today's world... they are truly racehorses. I personally think Afleet Alex would have won or at least hit the board in several of the more recent derbies... and I am the one who wasn't an Afleet Alex believer prior to the derby. (I thought his Ark Derby was a partnership between him, the track, and the questionable field.) I'll even risk being labeled a heretic and put forth the supposition that had Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones been in same derby, (either Arkansas or Kentucky), we would not have had the "Smarty Story" of 2004.
I saw Bandini and Sun King in person at Keeneland, prior to the Bluegrass. I sought them out because I thought they were probably being overhyped. Although I really didn't get a chance to see every conformational flaw they might have had, I can tell you both really looked the part of a champion. Sun King had a special look about him and a special way about him while Bandini is an awesome critter in every way. I can understand how each captured the imagination of its well-seasoned trainer. Who knows if they will progress... but I have a hard time questioning the ability of any horse that looks that good. (I know, I know... every day there are tons of incredible looking critters running in low level claimers... but... I cannot help myself.)
One must also keep in mind that horses such as Harlington, Declans Moon, and Roman Ruler didn't even make the Derby. What a group to have on the DL... one can only speculate what this derby might have been had they been able to participate. (Resident Serena's Song apologist swears Harlington would have won this derby.)
No, Mr. Beyer, I beg to differ... I think this is about as deep a group as you will ever wish to find. There may not be a "huge horse" but I think there are several legitimate stakes horses to be found in this crop. I also think some of the more recent "superstars" were actually complimented by their relatively weak competition, while this group will probably be beating on each other at every stop. Furthermore, I find it exciting that with this depth and quality we are bound to have a few continue their careers past this year.
As for Giacomo and if he will ever win another stakes race... well... he was 50-1 once already and overcame those odds. If offered 50-1 on him to win another, would you be able to turn it down?
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George William Smith
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Derby
I am no fan of Beyer, but I thought his article as given on this thread was very well written and honestly held. Too many of you that have posted prior to me red-herringed his intent as trying to cover his own bad picks.
It is a fact that no one put their money where their mouth was with the finishing order of the first four horses as all winning superfecta tickets were multiple tickets so my conclusion here is that everybody was wrong except those who threw a lot of money into longshots into their bets. So Beyer was wrong like me and everyone else who had definite opinions about who we liked and why and bet the race.
In hindsight my handicapping friend Jimmy The Greek, pointed out that no horse in the Derby that had ever led at the first quarter in any of its races hit the board. Considering some horses in this Classic competition met exceedingly weak fields in their first few races, that none would hit the board does give credence to Beyer's inferences.
I am surprised
that many of you in your replies did not rise to an important aspect of his article, namely performance-enhancing drugs.
Before the Derby, most of the analysts were bashing California horses as being substandard. Before the Derby I cautioned everyone about the Californian horses as the Milkshaking Detention Barns had quite a few highly successful trainers grace their quarters. I said there were two possibilities re this Derby since Churchill had announce "Blood tests for all horses in the Derby". One it would be the cleanest Derby and therefore, previous form could be tossed and a great race in slow time. Two, the trainers would heed such a warning as often happens in track and field as a bluff and positive tests discarded lest its reputation be ruined. Three, that the California horses would run far above expectations since their trainers had either run their horses clean in the last few starts [and that is why none were particularly distinguished] or they will have found a way around the testing [staying a step ahead of the testers].
I chose number two above and burned and crashed in my Derby betting.
More power to Beyers at least broaching the big no no that drugs run this sport.
The Preakness should be very, very interesing, since Maryland is a very, very different state.
It is a fact that no one put their money where their mouth was with the finishing order of the first four horses as all winning superfecta tickets were multiple tickets so my conclusion here is that everybody was wrong except those who threw a lot of money into longshots into their bets. So Beyer was wrong like me and everyone else who had definite opinions about who we liked and why and bet the race.
In hindsight my handicapping friend Jimmy The Greek, pointed out that no horse in the Derby that had ever led at the first quarter in any of its races hit the board. Considering some horses in this Classic competition met exceedingly weak fields in their first few races, that none would hit the board does give credence to Beyer's inferences.
I am surprised
that many of you in your replies did not rise to an important aspect of his article, namely performance-enhancing drugs.
Before the Derby, most of the analysts were bashing California horses as being substandard. Before the Derby I cautioned everyone about the Californian horses as the Milkshaking Detention Barns had quite a few highly successful trainers grace their quarters. I said there were two possibilities re this Derby since Churchill had announce "Blood tests for all horses in the Derby". One it would be the cleanest Derby and therefore, previous form could be tossed and a great race in slow time. Two, the trainers would heed such a warning as often happens in track and field as a bluff and positive tests discarded lest its reputation be ruined. Three, that the California horses would run far above expectations since their trainers had either run their horses clean in the last few starts [and that is why none were particularly distinguished] or they will have found a way around the testing [staying a step ahead of the testers].
I chose number two above and burned and crashed in my Derby betting.
More power to Beyers at least broaching the big no no that drugs run this sport.
The Preakness should be very, very interesing, since Maryland is a very, very different state.