Closing Argument

[llbean]

Since a lot of pedigree experts were surprised with how wonderfully Closing Arguement ran in the 10f Kentucky Derby; I thought I'd repost this:


Mahubah
Stud


Joined: 16 Sep 2004
Posts: 1016
Location: Lake City, Florida
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:05 pm Post subject:

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...Regarding Closing Argument, his Conduit Mare profile is actually tilted more towards stamina than his immediate pedigree might make one think: he comes up 7-1-9-2-6, with an index of 1.04 and a speed/stamina ratio of 1.00. I think 10f will be a stretch for him (though within the realm of possibility with the right trip -- not something easy to get in the Derby) and he will be better at 8-9 furlongs. Definitely a nice colt; wonder how he'd do if pointed for the Met Mile rather than the TC trail?
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llbean
Derby Winner


Joined: 17 Sep 2004
Posts: 585

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:19 pm Post subject:

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Hi Mahubah,

I seem to recall Smarty Jones having a Conduit Mare Profile right about 1.04 (is it that the internal splits are different?).

That notwithstanding, you have to admit the horse already has won a G3 at 1 1/8 Miles, which doesn't indicate a Met Mile horse to me.

-llbean

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Mahubah
Stud


Joined: 16 Sep 2004
Posts: 1016
Location: Lake City, Florida
Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 7:53 pm Post subject:

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Yes, the internal splits are different -- SJ's profile is 9-2-2-2-9, more the picture of a horse with the speed to run on or near the pace and the stamina to carry that speed a distance.

As for Closing Argument and the Met, don't know why having won at a longer trip would keep him from being a good miler. Lots of other horses were able to do both.
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llbean
Derby Winner


Joined: 17 Sep 2004
Posts: 585

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2005 8:16 pm Post subject:

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It's very early in the year for a 3YO horse to win a Graded Stakes at 1 1/8 Miles.

I think it's a misuse of pedigree research to ignore the race record of the individual; and this individual improved majorly once they finaly put him in a longer race (the Holy Bull).

-llbean

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http://www.pedigreequery.com/forum/view ... c&start=60

-llbean

[llbean]

Anyway, predicting Derby Victory Precluding distance limitations for CA was somewhat risky given that Closing Argument was the vanguard of his sire's get stretching out...

-llbean

[louis finochio]

Closing Arguments sire Successful Appeal pedigree is still a mystery as SA is outproducing his pedigree by leaps and bounds.

SA pedigree is not that usual pedigree of quality top and bottom.

I wonder if they ever ran a DNA on SA to determine if he is from the lineage that his pedigree reads?

[Mahubah]

The bottom half of Successful Appeal's pedigree is more workmanlike than spectacular, but his dam is 3x3 to Lucky Debonair, 3x4 Northern Dancer, and 6x6x6x6 Count Fleet. The Mr. P returns found in most of his best offspring tie nicely into all three via Native Dancer and Count Fleet as well as providing mild inbreeding to Mr. P himself.

Closng Argument's dam is 5x4x4 to Bold Ruler, and I think it was Les Brinsfield who noted that she has about seven crosses to Discovery. Line breeding to Discovery may be an important factor for CA.

Just for fun, by the way -- Lucky Debonair had a G1-winning half sister by Dr. Fager named Lady Love. Descendants of this mare might be a very interesting return to Successful Appeal, especially through Lady Love's Mr. Prospector daughter Sealed Bid.

[FOS]

hi guys

You might find it interesting to note that the dam of Closing Argument (Mrs Greeley) is In Foal to Vindication.

Respectfully

[louis finochio]

To Mahubah: I agree with what you found about SA line-breeding.

SA has to be a throw back to those ancestors to produce a multitude of superior runners.