Lost in the Fog loses

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Heidilady
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Lost in the Fog loses

Postby Heidilady » Sat Apr 22, 2006 6:23 pm

Here's the chart:

http://magna.equibase.com/eqbPDFChart.c ... E=A&BorP=B

Basically sounds like what we figured. Carthage had some seasoning on the year and Foggy just wasn't 100% but of course his connections didn't figure he would be anyway. I remember Carthage's folks saying if there was a time to race against LITF, it'd be now. Plus Carthage had 117 to LITF's 125.

1. Carthage
2. Lost in the Fog
3. Elegant Ice
4. Twentythreejaybird

Did I read the chart right? Did he lose by 3 lengths? 1:09.08 was the time which is funny because LITF had nearly 2 seconds lower as the track record last May. Clearly he's not quite sharp enough yet but I guess nice job considering.
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Sam
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Re: Lost in the Fog loses

Postby Sam » Sat Apr 22, 2006 7:36 pm

Looked like more than that. He was struggling halfway through.
Last edited by Sam on Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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sunday_silence
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Postby sunday_silence » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:11 pm

He was carrying 9 lbs more, so give him a little bit of extra credit.

zinn21
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Postby zinn21 » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:23 pm

This race is a hard one to guage. Was Foggy short? Caught a real sharp horse? Giving too much weight? Overtrained? Cheating? Just hope he didn't hurt himself. Let's see another one from him..

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Postby Sam » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:28 pm

And I'm one of the few who believe that a 9lbs spread between two 1000lbs horses doesn't mean a whole lot ... especially when they have exercise riders who routinely weigh more than what the horses carry in a race. 19lbs, maybe. 9lbs, not really. Especially not at 6 furlongs.

He had enough reasons going in that would say he wasn't ready for his top effort ... using a paltry 9lbs spread as one is an insult.

etd

stupid quotes .. bad habit.
Last edited by Sam on Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Sam
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Postby Sam » Sat Apr 22, 2006 8:30 pm

blink

yeah ... I'm paying attention. Old habits and all.

StrawberryFelidos
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Postby StrawberryFelidos » Sat Apr 22, 2006 9:59 pm

Anybody else get the feeling that Lost in the Fog is in big trouble?
I mean, I could understand if he lost to a good field, it being after his layoff and being short or whatever excuse they want to make- but guys, this was against a group of three nobodies running in a race that was invented specifically for Lost in the Fog, and he blew it. 3 length loss to who? And, yeah, the two seconds slower than his own mark isn't exactly encouraging.
What's up, Lost in the Fog? Life got you down? Hormones kicking in? What?!?
And why is it that former champions so often come back as shadows of themselves (Smuggler, where the hell were you today??)

Easy Goer
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Postby Easy Goer » Sat Apr 22, 2006 10:33 pm

one of the old guys who did the wt assigning (VOsburgh?) figured that one pound equated with 1/2 a lenght in sprints and 1 length at 9f or more...Hmm, he lost by 3 lengths and spotted the other one 8 lbs? Sounds about right.

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BenB
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Postby BenB » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:59 am

Beiing a very good 3 year old won,t say anything about beiing a four year old.
What was the raceweight last May?
In our country a weight advantage for four year old against older horses is set up for 2 pds up to june.
Time will tell how this will be unfold.
Maybe he is nowadays, a very good one, but not a superstar.
The weight tables says 2 pds for each lenght at 5 furlongs, that,s figured out a very long time ago. If I read it well?? He maked an 118 beyer instead of the 125
Besided that, the 125 gives a damn lot more pressure, on the horses back
in combition with the race speed, than a 117

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BenB
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Postby BenB » Sun Apr 23, 2006 3:44 am

I forgot to mention, that the winner run an about 120 in this race, or that his new beyer should be an 120

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Postby louis finochio » Sun Apr 23, 2006 6:59 am

Anytime a TB comes off a layoff, your best to look for a easy prep race before you throw your TB to the lions.

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StrawberryFelidos
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Postby StrawberryFelidos » Sun Apr 23, 2006 10:37 am

True, Louis, but these weren't the lions of the world. This was the easiest pickings that Lost in the Fog could have gotten, save for maybe running in an optional claimer. Three relatively unaccomplished foes at his ideal distance, he should've motored by them like he did in the Golden Bear.

edit: I see the winner has won a few ungraded stakes, so he isn't a total pushover. He still shouldn't have been anywhere near the same class as LitF, at least the LitF of last year. This year's model looks pretty darn vulnerable.

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Postby Sam » Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:10 pm

For Pete's sake, it was ONE RACE -- his first back after a long layoff -- the horse was clearly short. Can we maybe see a few more before people start in on the "he's finished and will be running claimers" crap? Damn, I can't remember the last time I saw so many people so quick to overreact.

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Heidilady
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Postby Heidilady » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:28 pm

StrawberryFelidos wrote:Anybody else get the feeling that Lost in the Fog is in big trouble?
I mean, I could understand if he lost to a good field, it being after his layoff and being short or whatever excuse they want to make- but guys, this was against a group of three nobodies running in a race that was invented specifically for Lost in the Fog, and he blew it. 3 length loss to who? And, yeah, the two seconds slower than his own mark isn't exactly encouraging.
What's up, Lost in the Fog? Life got you down? Hormones kicking in? What?!?
And why is it that former champions so often come back as shadows of themselves (Smuggler, where the hell were you today??)


I'm sorry but if you listened to the commentators and read the articles on the race before he ran Saturday, they all seemed to figure Carthage was a live wire and fully capable of being a handful if LITF wasn't 100% from the layoff and Carthage brought his A game. If they expected this was a possibility, having run the works LITF did and they were pretty flashy all told, I'd say you're underrating Carthage AND LITF. Should they meet again in the future I'd expect a turnaround but I don't think Carthage will fade into oblivion. He's just not as good as Foggy but he's not nobody. One had several months off a layoff, the other had some preps and was not untalented. Who do you think's more ready for the race?
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zinn21
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Postby zinn21 » Sun Apr 23, 2006 4:44 pm

I don't think anyone is overreacting. When you're 1-9; almost undefeated; one of the fastest horses of your generation; running against basically one horse who but a few races back was running for a tag-you're supposed to get it done. Regarding the nine pound weight shift-weight, without question weight makes a difference. If you don't think so, go out and run a timed quarter mile as fast as you can go. The next day do the same thing but clip a "paltry" one pound weight to your belt and check your time.